With word that Kristaps Porzingis will miss “several” games, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Celtics are already looking to adjust their playoff attack. While it’s good news that Porzingis is probably not gone for the entirety of the playoffs, the Celtics will still have to figure out life without Porzingis for a little while.
Luckily, it’s something they're used to. The Celtics played 25 games without him and they lost only four times. Their most popular lineup without him is Al Horford in his place with the regular starters, having played 649 possessions during the regular season.
That lineup is +1.3 with a 120.2 offensive rating and a 118.9 defensive rating. Compare that to the 1293 possessions with Porzingis and the other regular starters, which is +12 with a 121.7 offensive rating and 109.8 defensive rating.
Right away we can expect a drop-off in the defense. Porzingis is a shot blocker and a deterrent, and he’s just able to get to plays that Horford is not. Whether it’s Cleveland or Orlando up next for Boston (I’m going out on a limb and saying they’ll finish Miami off at some point), the path to the rim will be a little easier.
And that's something I think the Celtics will live with. Boston is happy to watch teams go for 2-point shots, and the physicality allowed in the playoffs will let Boston challenge those shots a little more aggressively. We know Boston’s offense will find its way behind the 3-point line for plenty of looks, so anything that draws more opponent shots inside the arc is something they can work with in their quest to win the math.
So where do the Celtics go while Porzingis is recovering? How do they adjust? We know they’ll start Horford and he’ll get an increase in minutes, but where do they go behind that? Here are the options.
- Do nothing different
Just follow the same script as the regular season and hope there's some carryover. That means start Horford and bring Luke Kornet off the bench. They probably won’t just say “it’s the playoffs and Luke can’t play.” This is probably the plan against Miami in the closeout game tonight just so they can keep a rim protector in the game while running the Heat off the 3-point line.
The Celtics will need someone at the rim against these teams that like to attack. Kornet’s block percentage was 5.5%, just behind Porzingis’ 5.8%, and equal to elite shot blockers like Rudy Gobert and Myles Turner. So Kornet can do the job at the rim … at least theoretically.
The question will become whether he can actually do it in a playoff series, which might come down to matchups. The real question will be how much of a negative is he offensively, and how much can his defense make up for that?
This is where the chess match comes into play. Against Cleveland, for example, Kornet can match up against whichever big is in the game and do a fine job protecting the rim. But do the Cavs start one of their non-defenders on Kornet so when Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown decide to attack, they get blitzed? And if so, will the Celtics have a pre-switch in mind so the screener becomes a ball handler? Or do they just accept that double-team, get Kornet the ball and have him flow into a dribble hand-off or something?
Porzingis is a matchup problem for everyone, and the one thing we’re going to have to accept is that losing him for any amount of time in the playoffs opens up a hole in the lineup that can be exploited somehow.
But my guess is that Kornet gets the first crack at filling the role and they’ll adjust from there.
- Xavier Tillman
They got him for a reason, and what better way to hammer home that Brad Stevens earned his Executive of the Year award by having the guy he poached from Memphis step in and help Boston win a playoff series.
He’s a smart offensive player, who can do little things like find seams and gaps and make himself available. Watch him against the Jazz earlier this season read the defense, switch places with Oshae Brissett, and relocate on the baseline to present himself for a Jrue Holiday pass.
The Celtics can use that level of basketball IQ in the playoffs. They can also use someone who can switch, which Tillman can do.
Tillman is a stronger player with a lower base so it’ll be harder to push him around. He might be an option Orlando is the matchup, giving Boston someone who won’t get crushed by Paolo Banchero. If Kornet is too slight for a certain opponent, then Tillman might be the guy they go to.
Of course, this means another non-shooter is on the floor, so Boston does face a bit of a dilemma with him out there as well. But he’s capable of moving the ball, and as we’ve seen finding some open spots on the floor, so hopefully that weakness can be minimized.
- Tatum at center
They didn’t go to this much, which either means it didn’t work or maybe they were saving something for the postseason.
According to CleaningTheGlass, Boston only used Tatum at center in one lineup, with Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Brown, and Holiday. They only played 12 possessions together and it had an offensive rating of 58.3.
You can’t make anything out of 12 possessions, no matter how poorly it went. The Celtics could still throw Tatum out there for stretches because he can guard a big like Evan Mobley while Holiday can take Jarrett Allen for a while. The Celtics can throw another wing out there with White and Brown, maybe Sam Hauser to solve the shooting problem or Brissett if they want a more defensive-minded group.
This isn’t something they lean on, necessarily, but Tatum is almost Mobley’s size, so we’ll probably see that matchup organically against Cleveland anyway. If the matchups work, then dare the Cavs to stop Boston’s offense. I don’t know how often Boston would go to this against Orlando. A matchup against the Magic would call for more size and probably more double-big lineups and a combination of some of these options.
- Neemias Queta
He’s last because he’s the least likely option, but I’m not ruling him out. It’s a lot to ask a recently-upgraded two-way guy to make an impact in the playoffs, but considering what he did in the regular season to earn that contract, I’m not dismissing it out of hand.
I can see him getting some feeler minutes if Boston has built a big lead. Give it a few possessions and sub him out if it sucks. They're going to have to figure things out, so if there's a chance to try him out, then take advantage of it.
Still, I doubt we see him.
The good news is that Porzingis should be back this postseason and the Celtics are still good enough to win without him. This brings them back to the pack, but they still have their two best players and they don’t have to change the game plan much. They just have to plug some guys in for a few weeks to bridge the gap.