FOXBOROUGH - After months of speculation and rumors, the Great QB Haul of 2024 came out, at least at the top, like most expected:
1. Chicago: Caleb Williams
2. Washington: Jayden Daniels
3. New England: Drake Maye
Then there was a small lull, and then ... pow:
8. Atlanta: Michael Penix Jr. in a shocker - even to Kirk Cousins
10. Minnesota (trade up): J.J. McCarthy
12. Denver: Bo Nix
And that was it ... six QBs taken in the top 12 picks. It was the first time six had been taken in the first round since the fabled 1983 class.
For all you fretting about the Patriots just sticking and picking the third QB that fell to them ... the Bills did that in 1984, all the way down at 14th overall, and ended up with a Hall of Famer in Jim Kelly. Also, Patrick Mahomes was the second QB (10th overall), and Deshaun Watson was third (12th overall) in 2017. And Josh Allen was the third QB (7th overall) in 2018.
Basically, it's a completely nonsensical storyline with no factual basis. You never know how the crop is actually going to turn out. Some years, like 2021, are not great. Other years, the class is deep.
All you can do is evaluate and grade each player, and the Patriots clearly felt that way about Maye (and Daniels) weeks ago.
"Not to talk about other players, but those top three guys, we were comfortable with all three of those guys, and it just happened to be Drake, and he's definitely ... he has a lot of potential," said Jerod Mayo. "We have a lot of coaches, and we have to develop him."
That's the whole key in all this - not who was picked where or what order.
Look, in all honesty, Maye is far from a perfect prospect. I mean, just listen to some guy named Bill Belichick.
As usual, he's not wrong on any part of his analysis, especially the part about Maye just not having much experience. His senior high school season was wiped out by Covid (JJ McCarthy went to IMG Academy to avoid the same fate). He redshirted in 2021. Had a fantastic 2022 redshirt freshman season at UNC, and was in a sloppy offense last year. So he's only played football for two of the last four years. He turns 22 in August. He's almost like getting a 20-year-old in terms of football experience.
He's like a big country puppy, right down to the boundless energy going in eight different directions (which shows up on tape) and that same earnestness - you just hope he doesn't crap all over the place and ruin the furniture while you're waiting for him to mature.
That's the rub in all this. The Patriots have a big moldable piece of clay in a prototype QB body (6-4 ½, 223 pounds). But there's a lot of work to do, as I pointed out in my evaluation of him (nevermind guys like Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky and Greg Cosell):
There's a ton to really like about him. The whole package physically is great. He's big and sturdy. The arm is there. Can make throws on the run and rip the ball to all parts of the field. He comes from a very athletic family, so you expect him to have elite makeup. Has the ability to make plays with his feet. Hands are a little small for his size, but just as a physical quarterback ... he's how you draw it up.
However, he is very unrefined as a passer at this point. His throwing motion is a bit long and not natural. His footwork borders on awful at times and he drifts in the pocket, which invites more pressure and sacks. He does not throw with good anticipation. At this point, he's not great at reading the play and the defense from the pocket.
To me, he very clearly needs to sit at least for a year. He's a very talented project. You could make the Jordan Love comparison as Orlovsky did. But are you taking a QB third overall and being content to sit him for two years? No way. This is where the evaluation comes in. All it takes is for one hardo coach — could be Alex Van Pelt or Ben McAdoo — to say, "I can fix that kid by the end of his first season. He'll start Year 2 at the latest." And they could absolutely be right. In that case, I might entertain Maye at 3 this year. The potential total package could be too tempting to pass up.
Evidently, that's exactly the evaluation the Patriots came to.
"Meeting with Coach Van Pelt, Coach McAdoo, Coach (TC) McCartney and talking through some of the development that he needed, some of the things they thought they could tighten up or fix in some cases, and at the end of the day, we felt comfortable with those things and really betting on the talent and the kid," Eliot Wolf said. "Drake is a relentless worker from all the indications that we have, and he's going to be able to overcome some of the things in the areas that he needs to improve."
When it came to the Patriots picking Maye and overlooking his obvious shortcomings, the player's makeup had a lot to do with it. That's why you can rest (a little) easier that this isn't some uber-talented guy like Zach Wilson who just fizzles out because he doesn't have the right intangibles. He's the youngest of four boys (all stud athletes in different sports) and a son to a former college and pro quarterback, and his mom was a HS all-state basketball player. Maye's already been put in a bad situation at QB last year at UNC and never flinched in the face of adversity.
"He was one of the only quarterbacks in this draft that went up there after every loss and handled the media," Wolf said. "Not that the Chapel Hill media is as tough as you guys are, but he handled it with grace, with class. Watching those press conferences, there were a lot of times where the reporters were trying to get him to throw somebody under the bus, and he wouldn't do it. He's a 21-year-old kid, but he's very mature and understands what it means to be a leader."
Maye even dealt with a hard question from some hardo Patriots reporter (me) about coming to what many think is the worst situation for a rookie quarterback - and took it in stride.
"I think they're wrong," Maye said. "The defense last year held a lot of teams to low points, and I'm looking forward to helping in any way offensively, and just looking forward to be there with Coach [Jerod] Mayo in his first year – congrats to him – and I don't think anybody's saying that. I think, hopefully, we'll find out this coming season. I'm going to work hard with the guys and prove them wrong."
Not bad, rook.
Back to the adversity Maye has already had to face.
"One thing about Drake, and we kind of talked about it this past year, they also had some holes on offense, and the thing that most impressed me about him, he would get smashed and just get right back up," Mayo said. "That's the same trait -- you had a guy like Tom Brady -- not saying that he's Tom, but just that mentality. Same thing with Joe Burrow. Those guys just keep getting back up and continuing to play at a high level, and that was like the 'aha' moment for me.
"Just his composure, and I would also say a lot of teams, they put up all the good plays of players. Eliot and his group, they put a tape together that had a lot of bad plays, and honestly he took a lot of that blame on himself even when sometimes it wasn't his fault. A very accountable man, and can't wait to get to work with him."
Of course, Mayo almost brought up Maye's floor at the league meetings last month unsolicited.
"The exciting part about a guy like Drake Maye is the ceiling like there is really no ceiling with a guy like that," Mayo said at the time. "Now, in saying that when we're trying to put together this roster, I know a lot of people look at the ceiling. But you also got to kind of see how low was the floor? How low is the floor, and I would say a guy like Drake Maye, he has a lot of room to grow. He's a young guy. Honestly, he hasn't played football nearly as much as these other guys. So that's definitely something that we've looked at."
And I had to ask Mayo about that as well ... doesn't that floor scare you?
"I wouldn't say it scared us," Mayo said on Thursday night. "Everyone was focusing on the ceiling, and obviously Drake has a high ceiling. But the floor is -- if everything goes wrong, which we don't anticipate to happen, what does that look like? We were very comfortable as we continued to go through the process. We watched years of this guy playing football and feel good about the pick."
Now the Patriots have to get to work building Maye up, brick by brick.
"I just think we need to support him in any way we can, on the field, off the field," Wolf said. "We need to add some weapons to the offense. We need to shore up the offensive line. We have good players already at those positions but really just increasing the depth and the competition. Like Jerod mentioned, that competition is going to be at every position."
A lot of people will focus on the talent around him, and that's legit to a point - it can't be a trainwreck. The Patriots need to fix that with the rest of this draft and offseason (perhaps that looming WR trade at some point), and next offseason. But it's mostly going to be about the coaching in the near term.
As I wrote previously:
The Patriots just have to have a plan and stick to it, unlike the Jaguars when they took Blake Bortles third overall in the 2014 draft. I think Maye has a higher ceiling than Bortles at this point, but they are very prospects. Great physical tools but needed a lot of work. You could read my pre-draft analysis of Bortles, substitute in Maye for Bortles, and you have the exact same report.
The Jaguars and then-GM Dave Caldwell shocked the world taking Bortles at 3 in that draft. But I was very encouraged that the Jaguars said the plan was to sit Bortles his rookie season behind Chad Henne. That was the ideal plan.
Of course, the Jaguars started 0-3, Bortles started Week 4 and went 3-11 in his starts. And Bortles, despite reaching an AFC championship game, never came close to reaching his potential because his development was rushed and he was out of the league after Year 6.
The Patriots absolutely can't do that, if they pick Maye third overall. If I were the Patriots, I'd be praying the Commanders take Maye second, and hope that Daniels falls to 3 and either making that pick or raffling it off to the highest bidder.
All I know is the evaluations of Maye will be fascinating, but the post-draft plan and execution will be most vital to his and his drafting team's long-term success.
"They try to put time tables on it, but you just never know when that time is going to be," Mayo said. "If you look over the history of the league, sometimes guys, they can go in there and start game 1 and have a Pro Bowl season. Then other guys, they sit for two or three years and they have a great season or great career, but it can also go the other way. You sit for two years and have a terrible career.
"I think it's hard to really put a timeline on when he will be ready. Once again, look, I don't want you guys to forget about the quarterbacks that we have on our roster, and it's about competing and it's about going out there every day striving to get better."
The Patriots were right to draft Maye third overall because all the physical tools and intangibles are there for him to be a franchise quarterback, and a damn good one that gives the Patriots a shot against the Josh Allens, Justin Herberts, Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes in the AFC. You simply can't pass on that, at 3, 6, 9 or 11 — and that Minnesota (Kevin O'Connell) and New York Giants (Brian Daboll) badly wanted Maye should give you some solace.
But now the pressure is on Wolf, Mayo and the coaching staff not to screw this kid up. His fate, and that of the franchise, are on their shoulder's now — not Maye's.
