The final countdown is on for the Patriots to chart a new course for the franchise with the first round of the NFL draft tonight.
Here's all of our draft coverage to this point.
The latest on what I'm hearing, what I think the Patriots will do tonight, a first-round mock and mocking the Patriots' picks.
• In speaking with multiple league sources this week who know Eliot Wolf well, I was surprised to hear most thought he would have Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy rated very close — and well behind Jayden Daniels — and Michael Penix not far behind.
• The consensus on the pick, which is my own belief: it will be Maye, if the Patriots stay at 3.
"That group is very patient - heed the words 'draft and develop,'" said one source. "They will have a plan to shelve/develop behind Jacoby (Brissett) and build the team around Drake."
"Maye fits the prototype: size, good athleticism/arm strength, can run/create with his feet and has been durable," said another. "High football character traits as well."
• McCarthy over Penix for Wolf?
"Slightly because of McCarthy's winning pedigree and ability to create with his feet in addition to his durability," said another source.
• A team source did not attempt to move me off Maye, but who the hell knows?
• I would put the odds at this:
40 percent Maye at 3
30 percent McCarthy at 3
20 percent McCarthy lower with a trade down and then trade back up
10 percent Penix with a trade down and inability to trade back up/getting jumped
If they get a good offer and it works out they get Penix, I think they would be just fine with that.
• What would be considered a good offer? I thought former executive Joel Corry had a good article on that today. His proposals for third overall (2200 points):
Giants (6th): Offering their 2024 sixth overall pick (1800 points), a 2024 second-round pick (47th overall - 430 points)) and a 2025 first-round pick (estimated 1000 points) would certainly get New England's attention.
Bedard's take: That would be very tempting. With that haul, you could get best available player/QB at six (or trade up to 5), and have more than enough ammo to trade back up high (the NE and NYG 2nd round picks could get you near 16 and Seattle) for QB/OT/WR
Vikings (11th): A willingness to give up 2024's 11th overall pick (1200), 23rd overall pick (760), a 2025 first-round pick (1000) and a 2025 fourth-round pick (100) for 2024's third overall pick would be a better haul than the Cardinals received from the Texans last year or the 49ers gave the Dolphins in 2021 from one spot lower than Vikings. The Patriots insisting on All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson should be a deal breaker for the Vikings.
Bedard's take: Also very tempting with room to maneuver.
Raiders (13th): Determined to get Daniels, the Raiders put 2024's 13th overall pick, a 2024 third-round pick (77th overall), a 2025 first-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick on the table for 2024's third pick. This is essentially a slight premium over the Lance compensation due to the Raiders being a pick after where the 49ers were in 2021 when they moved up, factored into the equation.
Bedard's take: Don't love not getting more ammo this year, but I would consider it because I think the Raiders are going to be trash the next two years and those could be top 10 picks - to go along with the Patriots' picks.
Bottom line on all this, I'm only considering this if Washington takes Daniels and there's not 100 percent conviction among Wolf, Jerod Mayo, Alonzo Highsmith, Alex Van Pelt and Ben McAdoo.
If there is indeed division on the QB to pick at 3, I'm taking one of the first two deals, and considering the third absent the other two.
• The rumor going around is that the McCarthy smoke with the Patriots is coming from his agent, to get Minnesota (their preferred landing spot) to panic and come up. But I do know New England really likes McCarthy.
• My first-round mock draft:
I'm just going to tell you up front that I suck at this, I'm not a draft guy.
I feel reasonably good about Maye.
Don't feel great about my trade up (34 and 103) for Tyler Guyton (or a receiver) ... I think if the board fell this way, I'd be OK waiting for 34 and picking the OT or WR highest on my board. But I want to make sure I get a guy with LT upside, and Guyton has that. I don't think many do.
• Here's my feeble attempt at a Patriots mock draft:
Screw PFF and my F grades.
QB Maye: Most upside. I'm going big and not afraid to get fired. Trust my coaches. Draft and develop. Trust the process.
WR Coleman (6-3, 213, 4.59): I love Coleman's size and athletic ability. I don't care about his 4.59 40. He can dominate. Patriots need his body type.
OT Fisher (6-5 ½, 314, 5.22): Originally was Notre Dame's LT until an injury as a freshman opened the door for Joe Alt, and should have returned to school to play LT in 2024 - but the Pats could get him a year early. Good feet. Huge upside if developed.
ED Trice (6-3 ½, 259, 4.70): Scouts love this power player. I love thinking of a future with Trice and Keion White on opposite sides, and the Pats need replacements for Matthew Judon, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings.
TE Reiman (6-5, 271, 4.6): This big moose finally gives the Patriots a Y TE, and they're going to need that blocking in the early rebuild. Has a lot of upside.
CB Jones (6-1.5, 185, 4.44): Loved the fluidity I saw at BC's pro day. Playmaker with length.
RB Laube (5-10, 206, 4.54): Probably won't be Highsmith's pick but I love the versatility and he could be a returner with the new kickoff rules.
QB Bradley (6-2.5, 221, 4.90): He stuck with me at the Senior Bowl. Some definite upside. Bye, bye Zappe.