I planned to do one final mock draft for today. Then, I thought better of it. I wouldn't be so bold as to tell you who the Carolina Panthers or Seattle Seahawks desire on day three of the draft. Hell, you can argue that once we get past the first 14-18 picks, and there's a trade or two no one expected, the whole process gets turned on its ear.
Two, I have worked hard to watch as much tape as I can and talk to as many people as I can about a large number of players in the draft, and I'm not going to let that intel go to waste.
So, I thought I'd pick a cluster of players in and around the Patriots' current selections and unload what I know and believe from watching the players. The list is culled from a cross-section of draft experts, and there can be a wide range of prospect placement on the respective. For instance, I have a player as a possible 6th-round fit for the Pats, but one scout tells me he believes that player will go in round three, and a second says he's more of a 7th-round/priority-free agent. That's quite the range. That's also the draft in a nutshell. Teams will winnow their draft boards to around 150 names or so, and no two boards across the league will be alike.
Away we go.
FIRST ROUND, #3 OVERALL
So this will come down to two of three quarterbacks who remain on the board: Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.
Before Adam Schefter walked back his Daniels-to-Washington assurances, I reported to you that there had been some pushback on that notion, some uncertainty in league circles. They believe, as I do, that the Commanders haven't made their ultimate decision, something GM Adam Peters confirmed to the media Thursday. Yes, they're close, but Peters still has work to do on the medicals and other potential red flags before he reconvenes with Dan Quinn and solidifies the plan.
Because offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury runs the Air Raid, the easy thought was, "Well, that's what Daniels did at LSU, so BOOM. The choice is made." Those folks left out that Maye ran the Air Raid during his first year as a starter at North Carolina, and that's when he put himself in the conversation for the top pick overall with Caleb Williams. A change in coordinators this year and 181 receptions leaving to the NFL left Maye on an island. The new offense was disorganized. The receivers, including potential Pats' target Devontez Walker, were error-prone, with drops and poor route running.
Oh, sure, there were such sloppy mechanics in Maye's lower half, but as one college scouting director told me, "If you can't fix that, you shouldn't be in the business" while also pointing out that the 21-year-old had already made strides on that front since the end of the season.
"The kid himself, he's not going to bust," said an NFC scout. "You may bust him, but he has everything you want beyond the obvious natural gifts. Teammates love him; he puts in the work and put that program on his back for the last two seasons. If he hits his ceiling, he's a top 10 QB."
Daniels had the best year of any signal caller in this draft, and if he gets bypassed by Washington, the Pats shouldn't hesitate to select him, even if I understand the football concerns (size and arm talent). The LSU star has great command on the field, and is accurate on the short to intermediate stuff. He obviously doesn't fear pushing the ball (watch any of the highlights reels), even if he's not as good at it as Maye is. As for the athlete, Daniels is a good runner. Not Lamar Jackson - disabuse yourself of that notion - and needs to learn how to protect himself better - but he can humble defenders quickly with his straight-line speed. He is more ready to drop into an offense on day one than Maye or McCarthy (though I still believe both of those guys could be ready by week one, too).
"His growth from year one at LSU to year two was exceptional," said that same AFC scouting director. "Hard to take your eyes off him, and he certainly will give whatever franchise that picks him an immediate jolt. He already has a good floor."
"My concern with Daniels is how he reacts to pressure," said the scout. "He took too many sacks or looked to bail out too soon. And he doesn't throw it well on the scramble. Actually, he doesn't keep his eyes up enough on the scramble, and it eliminates some shots. Can that be coached? I think it can, but he might get broken in half before he gets that part of the equation."
As for McCarthy, as I've said, he was way higher on the team's boards for a lot longer than it finally made its way to mock drafts and the football-consuming audience. His might be the hardest projection if only because of the lack of throws he made over his time as Michigan's starting QB, but this isn't some poor man's Mac Jones. He is a better athlete with a better arm, and his football character is off the charts. How can you not love a kid who told his fellow Wolverine recruits that if they were coming to Ann Arbor to party and chase girls, they were in the wrong place (by the way, Xavier Worthy de-committed and went to Texas. We may never fully know whether that was why, but it caught my eye).
"He may not have the high-end traits the others at the top of the draft have, but he's not some hack. People are getting that part of the evaluation all f***** up," said an NFC assistant coach. "Some guys just have a knack for rising up and delivering in big moments, and not only does J.J. do that, but it's in those spots where you like his arm more, you like his feet more, and you never have to question his football brain or toughness. He'll succeed in this league, I believe that."
I remain Maye 1, Daniels 2, and McCarthy 3.
ROUND TWO, PICK #34
- Adonai Mitchell (WR), Jordan Morgan (T/G), Troy Franklin (WR), Kingsley Suamataia (T) and Ricky Pearsall (WR)
The case for a receiver at this spot is simple. The Pats have several slot types, but there is no true "X." GM Eliot Wolf mentioned that in his pre-draft press conference on Thursday.
"Do we have players that, on a three-by-one, can beat the backside coverage every single time? I'm not sure if we have that just yet."
Mitchell is a consensus late first-rounder, but he's in this ballpark. A trade wouldn't be too costly to fill a vital spot. The Texas wideout has some flags - including less than overwhelming college production. Generally, in round one, early round two, taking a player like that is rare, but man, his ability to chew up cushions and make game-altering plays is there to see on tape.
"He's such a fluid athlete. Like, I would want to be that kind of athlete," said an AFC assistant coach. "Can find a different gear if he sees the ball or knows he's the primary. His coaches at our level will need to get him to hone in more on his route running, but it's there for him if he really wants it."
Franklin is almost 6'1" and weighs 176 pounds. I'm sorry, but I see Tyquan Thornton when I look at him. That's on me, not him, although he does struggle to get off press coverage, and that will only get more difficult at the NFL level.
Franklin is pretty good with the ball, and his speed is eye-popping.
"He makes some cuts that break ankles. There's more to him than just speed," said the assistant coach.
For months, draftniks have said Pearsall is a slot-only player. I think those people are nuts. The Florida Gator is 6'1", 193 pounds, and ran a 4.41 40. You can see that on tape. It wasn't just a testing day-only situation. Plus, Pearsall is as good a route-runner as there is in this draft (nicknamed "Slick Rick").
"Look, he could use a little more bulk on his frame," said another assistant coach, "but they (Florida) used him all over the place, and he was as good outside as he was inside. I'd much rather bet on his traits and competitiveness than some other guys."
If the Pats were to go lineman here, I would prefer Suamataia because he has all the tools to be a legit left tackle for many years, including longer arms than Morgan, who some believe is better suited for guard.
A former 5-star recruit who went to Oregon out of high school, Suamataia transferred to BYU because he was homesick. He started 12 games at right tackle his first year with the program and switched to the left side this year, starting all 11 games.
"That dude moves well, jolts guys with his punch, and he's got some meathooks on him," said an NFC scout. "I don't think he's good to go right away (he's 21), but a little patience could go a long way."
Morgan actually has bigger hands than Suamataia, but those arms are less than ideal for a tackle. He had 37 starts at left tackle for Arizona.
"They (Arizona coaching staff) let him fend for himself in a damn good conference, and he handled it," said the scout. "I can't dismiss that."
WRs Xavier Legette (wrote about him in weekend notes) and Keon Coleman could also be options here.
ROUND 3, PICK #68
- Patrick Paul (T), Ja'Lynn Polk (WR), Adisa Isaac (edge), and Austin Booker (edge)
To me, I'm sticking offense here. I remain in the QB first, then WR, and tackle camp (or tackle/WR). Some of you have turned up your nose at Paul in recent mock drafts. Anytime you can get a monster like this, with over 2,200 snaps at the left tackle spot, you must think about it.
I generally prefer my tackles to be in the 6'5" range. It's easier to bend at the waist when they're that size, but a freak is a freak (6-7, 331 pounds). Oh, and this freak is a two-time captain at Houston.
"He needs refinement," said an assistant coach in the AFC North. "But in some ways, all those big guys in the Air Raid systems do. Some of his tape is awesome, though. He gets his hands on some of these speed rushers, and it's lights out. The party is OVER."
My friend and former colleague Peter Schrager had Polk at the tail end of his first-round mock. That is a little rich, but I'm telling you, he's a poor man's Rome Odunze. Polk doesn't have elite speed, but as I mentioned in a previous column, he is one of the best "Go up and get guys" in this draft.
"A pit bull when the ball is in the air," said an AFC scout. "And the hands to finish the job. Would I like some better juice on his release? Sure. He won't ever be a number one, but he's a good player."
I co-sign.
If the Pats decide to go edge here, I'd be annoyed, but Matthew Judon and Josh Uche are on one-year deals, so...
Booker is my favorite of the two. He transferred from Minnesota to Kansas and blew up in his one season there. He didn't run as fast as expected at the combine, but I don't care. Booker has some intoxicating traits, with a crazy wingspan, good bendability, and some polish to his pass rush game. He is, however, inexperienced. The redshirt sophomore has 505 career snaps.
"He's not strong enough - yet - but he could help pretty quickly as a situational pass rusher," said an AFC assistant coach. "There's a lot in his bag - spins, speed-to-power... sorry, I don't want to pump his tires too much, but he's got a chance to be a pain in the ass for tackles and QBs."
Isaac was more productive at Penn State this year than his highly touted bookend, Chop Robinson. He has the desirable measurables to be a quality pass rusher and always a solid edge setter in the run game.
"He's gotten better every year," said the assistant coach. "And teammates rave about the type of kid he is. Adisa needs to see it better, but if he gets that part of the game and cleans up some of his inconsistencies, he will start in the league."
Part 2 (ROUNDS 4 TO 7) will drop later this week, certainly before the Bears are on the clock Thursday night.
