Far and away, Tyler O’Neill has been the best player on the Boston Red Sox’s 2024 roster.
With that being the case, it doesn’t seem terribly surprising with the way things have gone thus far — including an extra-inning loss last night to the Guardians that saw Kenley Jansen blow the save — to see his potential breakout season halted in freak fashion…
O’Neill missed the second game of the series against Cleveland on Tuesday after colliding with third baseman Rafael Devers while manning left field in the seventh inning of Monday’s 6-0 Patriots’ Day defeat.
Eight stitches later, O’Neill was described by Alex Cora on Tuesday as “a little banged up.” The good news is that O’Neill cleared concussion protocol. And even more good news, Devers didn’t miss a beat — starting and hitting second on Tuesday.
So it seems the Sox have dodged a bullet on two fronts — O’Neill isn’t concussed and seems likely to return sooner than later, and Devers didn’t suffer any more setbacks while already dealing with this lingering left shoulder issue.
With that being the case, Red Sox fans should be hopeful O’Neill will be able to pick back up where he left off. And where he left off was being an early-season MVP candidate who was on track to reproduce his career-best 2021 season, if not exceed it…
Tyler O’Neill has 7 HR, the most ever by a player in their first 14 games as a member of the Red Sox.
— J.P. Long (@SoxNotes) April 14, 2024
We’re talking about a guy who’s done things Ted Williams and David Ortiz, the two most noted power hitters in franchise history, haven’t done. I mean, that’s pretty impressive…
In a normal (pre-2018) year, we’d be looking at O’Neill’s hot start as an encouraging sign of what’s to come for the next few years. But with expectations at an all-time low and the results playing out as predicted so far, it’s only natural to wonder…
Is O’Neill here for the long haul? Or would the Sox be better off moving him with an organizational mindset focused on the future?
On one hand, O’Neill is only 28 years old and could very well have plenty of good years ahead of him — possibly the best ones of his career. On the other, he’s a seventh-year veteran who’s put together much more of a track record of not being an elite player than actually being one.
And then there’s the elephant in the room: O’Neill’s contract. While he's playing on a very team-friendly one-year deal worth just under $6 million this season, the two-time Gold Glove winner is set to become an unrestricted free agent next season.
Another fun fact to throw in the mix there is that O’Neill is represented by none other than the Boras Corporation. So, if you were hoping to be able to get a deal with O’Neill done early, you might want to make alternative plans…
Tyler O'Neill is now your MLB home run leader with 7⃣! pic.twitter.com/zo63vHhF0n
— MLB (@MLB) April 14, 2024
The truth is it could go either way with O’Neill’s future in Boston. If it were up to me, of course, I’d be open to the premise of re-signing a hitter who could be in the early stages of a career year to a longterm deal. That would almost certainly drive up the price tag on O’Neill, and we know Scott Boras isn’t one to let his clients take any discounts (unless, of course, he overestimates the market and makes two of his best pitchers wait until the start of the season to sign unwanted short-term deals. I feel for you, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery…).
We had a similar conversation last year with outfielder Adam Duvall, who put up respectable power numbers and was coveted at the trade deadline — primarily by the Atlanta Braves, who didn’t trade for him last summer but eventually re-signed him to a one-year, $3 million deal this March.
Why did the then Chaim Bloom-led Red Sox decide to hang onto Duvall? Well, it seemed like a hedged bet — something Bloom’s tenure will be remembered for — that maybe the ‘23 Sox could make a playoff run after all.
They were “in it” around the deadline, after all (but again, everybody should be in it at the deadline when there are three wild card spots). Duvall was the kind of player who could have helped you come the postseason — just as he did for the Braves during their World Series run in 2021.
It didn’t play out that way, of course. The Sox slowly (and painfully) slipped out of playoff contention as expected, and then they let Duvall go over the offseason despite not needing to give up much at all to bring him back.
Will Craig Breslow and the Sox learn from last year’s experience with Duvall when it comes to assessing O’Neill’s future? We’ve yet to learn how Breslow handles a trade deadline. I’d expect the Red Sox will be around what they are now — a near-.500 team that will be within a stone’s throw of a playoff spot.
Breslow will have to make a judgement call on O’Neill. But given the current state of affairs, the “smart” thing (which definitely isn’t the “fun” or “fan-friendly” thing) to do would probably be to offload him for some younger assets or prospects.
It’s a conversation we’ll have to revisit around July 30th…
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.
