"I get the philosophy, but they can't think they've gotten better, can they?" - AFC assistant GM on the Patriots offseason (to this point).
In this space, we aim to share with you what we know. You may agree, or you may disagree. It may confirm what you think or may ruffle feathers. Shrug. I'm not a life coach trying to make you feel better about yourself or, in this case, your team. That's not the job. The job is to dissect, analyze, and inform. On that front, we know the Pats have had opportunities to improve since the disastrous 2023-24 season ended. The consensus at the league meetings in Orlando last week is there are miles and miles to go (not unexpected).
"You can't oversell how important this draft is for Eliot (Wolf) and Jerod (Mayo)," said an NFC head coach. "They're trying to replace a great coach, which is hard enough, but they've also got to fix that offense. That's a lot. They need to be deliberate in their process, and at the end of that, they need to be right. If only the draft were that cut-and-dried."
The Pats have the draft capital to acquire impactful players. They have two picks in the top 34, three in the first 68, and four in the first 104. They also possess all of their 2025 selections, which could help sweeten the pot if they target a player and want to move up the draft board. But let's be honest: It all starts at the top, with the decision to quarterback or not, and if you do quarterback, which one.
"Handing over the keys to a 21- or 22-year-old when your job depends on it will never be easy," said an AFC coach. "We'd almost always prefer the ready-made player, but you don't fall into the next Joe Burrow or (C.J.) Stroud. You've got to support the kid from the first step and hope he — and you — can handle what the game throws at him because it won't be an easy path. It never is."
"You have to get the quarterback right, and I think there are a couple in this class who could satisfy that need," said an NFC GM when I asked about the Pats, without naming those QBs. "But the spots they're deficient in are where the strength of this draft lies. There's a path to be competitive in year one, especially if the defense remains a strength."
Perhaps that last part is a place where the Pats might miss Bill Belichick's knowledge, but of the list of worries, that unit - while not perfect (they could use another CB, a pass rusher, and boy would I love a real free safety) - is at the bottom of the list.
No, this offseason is about "weaponizing" the offense, and there's still time, even if the free agency part of the equation mainly fell flat.
BEANE GETS BOLD
In January, Bills GM Brandon Beane insisted that Stefon Diggs was still a number one receiver. In February, he said he expected Diggs to be a vital part of the team in 2024-25. On Wednesday, Beane sent the wideout to Houston (along with a 2025 5th-rounder and 2024 6th-rounder) for a 2025 second-round draft pick.
Beane, who declined to answer whether Diggs had requested a trade, thanked the 30-year-old for his contributions over the previous four seasons.
"(The) decision was made in the best interest of the Bills moving forward,"
Beane said, adding: "Are we better today? Probably not. This is a work in progress."
So why now? According to a source, the Bills planned on having Diggs on the team for the upcoming season. So what changed? Several factors are/could be at play.
1. Perhaps Beane realized this offer was the best he would get for a player they were almost certain to walk away from after the campaign. Even if the Bills will carry a dead money charge of nearly $31.1 million next season, that — along with the expected release of Von Miller after '24-25 — sets the team up to have an incredibly healthy cap situation going forward.
2. Diggs' performance. He had 70 catches, over 800 yards, and seven TDs through the season's first nine weeks. Over the final eight, there was a dramatic dropoff - just 47 catches, 422 yards, and one score. Throw in a massive drop in the three-point divisional loss to the Chiefs - plus his age - and it's fair to wonder if Diggs might be approaching the wide receiver cliff.
3. Lastly, Diggs's passive-aggressiveness may have worn the team thin. In fact, about 12 hours or so before the trade was announced, the wideout responded to a follower on "X" who wrote that while Josh Allen benefited from having a top-tier receiver, it wasn't essential to his success. Diggs felt compelled to write, "Are you sure?" That continued a theme where Diggs took to social media to post cryptic messages that called into question his relationship with the franchise quarterback and the franchise in general.
"Sometimes, in this seat, you have to make difficult decisions," said Beane, who then reminded those watching/listening that he'll "turn over every stone" to make sure the Bills are right in the mix, as they've been every year for the last four. Without Diggs, that challenge just got tougher.
TIME IS NOW
Meanwhile, Texans GM Nick Caserio is shooting his shot. Operating with an elite quarterback, C.J. Stroud, on his rookie deal, Caserio has loaded up this offseason, trading for Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. Combine that with the re-upping of tight end Dalton Schultz and the $48.5 million guaranteed for edge rusher Danielle Hunter, and you can see Houston believes their chance to take a run at Kansas City comes in the next few years.
The way Caserio, Belichick's former right-hand man in New England, is building his organization — and what Ran Carthon is doing in Tennessee — should be the blueprint for the handful of teams expected to select a quarterback early in this year's NFL Draft. You need to find out if these kids can play, and the best way to do that is to surround them with as much talent as possible.
Caserio knows he has a stud, and Stroud was able to elevate a relatively young and unproven supporting cast. Carthon and new head coach Brian Callahan have determined Will Levis might very well be the Titans' future, despite some pedestrian numbers, and spent through the nose for Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and Lloyd Cushenberry to make sure they get their answer in 2024-25. It's an intelligent play, and Eliot Wolf should be watching and hoping to emulate it in the coming seasons, especially if they go QB in rounds one or two.
SO, GIARDI, WHY NOT TRADE FOR AIYUK?
Great question.
Let's start with this: the 49ers don't want to move on from him.
"You've just got to be patient," said Kyle Shanahan. "You've got to let it play itself out, not get involved, and usually when you're in a situation like we are where you've got a real good player who wants to be here, and we want the player to be here extremely bad too, what I found with us it doesn't always happen right away, but it's a matter of time it ends up working out."
Shanahan and executive John Lynch have experience with this. They've locked up George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa to long-term extensions, even if it wasn't always smooth sailing. Samuel requested a trade, and Bosa's negotiations took so long to reach the finish line that he nearly missed the season's opening week.
"There's nothing better than drafting a guy, developing a guy, watching him flourish, and then rewarding him," said Lynch at the league meetings.
Aiyuk took to social media shortly after Lynch's comments, using emojis to say money talks and bullbleep walks. He later elaborated on a podcast with Shannon Sharpe and Chad Ochocinco.
"I'm just trying to get what I deserve," he said. "I felt like this season playing football, I figured out who I was as a person, as a player, what I bring to the table, what I bring to the locker room, what I bring to the organization, and just the value I hold when I walk in that building."
Aiyuk led the 49ers in receiving yards (1,342 yards), averaged nearly 18 yards per reception, and was named a second-team All-Pro. As I've written here before, I believe the 26-year-old to be one of the ten best receivers in football, and he should be entering his prime years. In this market, that could be worth around $30 million a season (wait until you see Justin Jefferson's contract). Can SF pay Samuel ($28 million this year) and Aiyuk this year and in the future? It's unlikely, so they'd be open to moving Samuel, even if the dead cap hit will be substantial. And you know how I feel about Deebo, a terrific but injury-prone player who has never proven to be an elite receiver, even if he's an elite weapon. Considering his age (he'll be 29 come playoff time), I suspect his market will be limited, but for the right team, he might supercharge an already good offense.
DRAFT NUGGETS
- Joe Alt, Notre Dame tackle and likely top-10 pick has fans everywhere, including defensive coaches. I talked to one DC this week who told me he couldn't envision a scenario (aside from injury) that Alt disappoints. "I wouldn't want to go up against this kid for 65 snaps a game. His length. His feet. He'll get more powerful. He will be that guy on the blindside for over a decade. Mark it down."
- Though the Chargers are lean at wide receiver, more and more folks around the league believe Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz will go offensive line, preferably through a trade back to acquire extra assets. "He's telling you who he is and what he wants. Believe him," an AFC scout told me of Harbaugh.
- BYU's Kingsley Suamataia could absolutely sneak into the back half of the first round (I had him 34 overall to the Pats in my 34-pick mock draft Monday). "His footwork is flawless," said an AFC assistant GM. "He glides." Combine that with his height and long arms, plus experience at both tackle spots, and you can understand why. Suamataia began his college career at Oregon.
- Cooper DeJean is one of this draft's more intriguing high-end talents. He could easily be a Pro Bowler at corner, safety, and as a returner. While a late-season injury kept him off the Senior Bowl/Combine circuit, his tape at Iowa is eye-opening. "This kid is a badass," said an NFC scout. "Can turn and run with the best wide receiver on the other team but will also attack a pulling guard to play run force." Look at corners in this league and ask yourself how many can do the same.