Opening Day is finally here, so it’s time to play the prediction game…
Some questions remain as to who will be on the lineup card and where on Thursday night in Seattle. But we know enough to pencil in most of the starting nine, so I’ll go around the diamond and give my thoughts on how projected everyday position players and pitchers will perform this season...
Catcher: Connor Wong/Reese McGuire — While Boston’s catcher platoon provides a quality defensive backstop, it isn’t very exciting from an offensive perspective. Gone are the days of getting significant offensive production from the catcher position around the game (in Boston, at least…). I certainly wouldn’t expect to see any Jason Varitek-like All-Star seasons of 20 homers, 80 RBIs and an average in the .280s. Christian Vazquez was probably as good as it gets for the Red Sox for squeezing any offense out of the catcher spot these days. At 28 years old and entering his fourth major league season, I’d imagine Wong will get more of the playing time over a more seasoned (and proven to be mediocre) 29-year-old McGuire. Wong played a career-high 126 games last season and ranked among the better defensive catchers in a handful of metrics. McGuire has never played more than 89 games in a season and logged 72 one season ago. Together, they’re fine. Not terrible, not great. But it would be easier to swallow their anticipated “meh” offensive numbers if a more offensively-potent roster had been constructed…
Coolbaugh’s projection — Wong: .250 batting average, 11 home runs, 42 RBIs/McGuire: .270 batting average, 4 homers, 22 RBIs.
First base: Triston Casas — It’s Casas’ time to shine. The up-and-coming, comfortable-in-his-own-skin first baseman of the future is poised to build on a solid first full season in the majors and could make the leap to All-Star if everything comes together. I expect to see a bump across the board in power and production. He’s been a .250s hitter in two seasons, but raised his average by 66 points from year one to two. I expect he’ll comfortably be in the .270s as he continues to get acclimated to big-league pitching. Casas was more of a liability with the glove when he first came up, but has made steady strides and is a dependable option as an everyday first baseman.
Coolbaugh’s projection — .272 batting average, 30 home runs, 84 RBIs.
Second base: Vaughn Grissom (?) — A little tricky here, as we don’t know how much Grissom we’re really going to get over a full season. But assuming his groin injury is not as serious as the team has suggested (and his hamstring injury from earlier in spring training doesn’t rear its ugly head again), we should see a healthy amount of the team’s hand-picked “second baseman of the future.” The 23-year-old has shown a knack for contact in a limited big league sample size in his first two seasons. I would expect that to continue, as Grissom seem to have the tools to become someone who flirts with a .300 average year in and year out. We haven’t seen much in the way of power production (save for, you know, that one particular Fenway homer…), although he did mash 36 doubles in the minors in 2023. A full season of adjusting to MLB pitching could work either way, as perhaps not enough pitchers have seen him to develop a consistent game plan — or maybe it will expose that his early-career good fortunates at the plate have been a mirage. Defensively, the team has belief in Grissom’s abilities to be an above-average infielder. But if these hamstring and groin injuries become a regular occurrence, range could become a problem for him and he might slot in better at third for the future…
Coolbaugh’s projection — .276 batting average, 14 home runs, 58 RBIs.
Shortstop: Trevor Story — Another key offensive contributor if the Sox plan to give us “ a real baseball season” in the words of a certain 98.5 drive-time host, Story is looking to show glimpses of the All-Star caliber bat he once was. We saw some of that (in terms of power, certainly not average…) at the beginning of his Red Sox career. His 16 homers and 66 RBIs before the injury in 2022, while not on the level of the player he was at his peak in Colorado, were respectable. He didn’t re-gain much rhythm in the limited 43-game sample size we saw last season as he returned and ramped back up. Story had a solid spring at the dish, slashing .380/.448/.640 with three homers and a team-leading 14 RBIs. I would expect Story’s production to resemble his output in his final season with the Rockies in 2021 — not much in the way of contact, but decent pop and run production…
Coolbaugh’s projection — .262 batting average, 26 home runs, 80 RBIs.
Third base: Rafael Devers — By far the easiest Red Sox position player prediction to make, so I won’t waste much of your time. If healthy, you can count on Devers to put up something in the realm of a 30-100 season. You can pencil that in for him for the foreseeable future. Defensively, Devers needs to be a bit better than he was last year, but on the whole is someone I still consider a serviceable everyday major league third baseman — for now. I was asked in this week’s BSJ Live Q&A if Devers could be a legitimate MVP candidate. He certainly has the talent, but I think his MVP candidacy requires some fearsome hitters to flank him in the lineup. Otherwise, teams will just be able to pitch around him. Maybe Casas, Story and Masataka Yoshida (more on him shortly) can become his much-needed bouncers…
Coolbaugh’s projection — .283 batting average, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs (and, for good measure, let’s say he finishes top five in AL MVP voting…)
Left field: Jarren Duran/Tyler O’Neill — The picture in left field won’t be finalized until we know how Ceddanne Rafaela will be used in the early going. If he starts the year in center, I’d expect to see a mix of Duran and Tyler O’Neill in left— but mostly Duran, who showed enough last season to establish himself as a strong leadoff option. I have high(er) hopes for Jarren Duran this season. He hit an impressive .295 and 45 percent of his hits in a 102-game workload in 2023 went for extra bases (34 doubles, two triples and eight homers). Much of that is attributable to his speed — he’s one of the fastest, if not the fastest, baseball players I’ve ever witnessed. But don’t discount his bat, as he’s shown he can drive the ball too. Duran’s spring was fairly mediocre, but he had his moments — including a 3-for-4, four-RBI game with a double and a two-run homer. I think we’re going to see more of that Duran than we did the .250 hitter he was in 16 games of Grapefruit League action.
Coolbaugh’s projection — .276 batting average, 16 homers, 68 RBIs, 33 stolen bases
Center field: Ceddanne Rafaela/Duran — Rafaela earned his keep on the Opening Day roster, but it remains unclear how he will be used. Will we see a Duran-Rafaela-Wilyer Abreu outfield? Or O’Neill, Duran and Abreu with Rafaela serving more in a utility role? Given Alex Cora’s spring-long obsession with trying to manifest Rafaela as the starting center fielder, I would image he’s going to be given plenty of chances in the early stages of this season. We saw him put up a respectable .270 average while ranking third in total bases among Sox hitters this spring. He hit .241 in 28 games with the big league club in 2023, so I think it’s reasonable to expect he’ll split the difference this year…
Coolbaugh’s projection: .256 batting average, 12 home runs, 44 RBIs.
Right field: Wilyer Abreu/O’Neill — Abreu didn’t do himself any favors with an abysmal spring performance. He slashed a putrid .127/.286/.270 with a couple of homers and eight RBIs in a team-leading 63 at-bats in a team-high 25 games. He also struck out a team-leading 26 times. Translation, Abreu was given every chance to prove himself this spring — and he failed miserably. The 24-year-old looked solid at the plate when he dipped his toes in the water at the major league level in 2023, batting .316 with two homers and 14 RBIs in 28 games. Which version is closer to the real Abreu remains to be seen. It appears Abreu might be destined to begin the season as the team’s fourth outfielder, which could make it difficult for him to get acclimated to being an everyday player. With that being the case, I would expect to see more of O’Neill than Abreu in right in the early going. O’Neill, meanwhile, he played only 14 spring games and hit .286. He’s played over 100 games only once in his six major league seasons, so while he is likely the better option over Abreu, his injury history makes me hesitant to think we’ll get a full season’s worth of production out of him…
Coolbaugh’s prediction: Abreu: .255 batting average, 6 home runs, 38 RBIs. O’Neill: .268 batting average, 15 home runs, 62 RBIs.
Designated hitter: Masataka Yoshida — One thing will take Yoshida from a pretty good hitter to a great one: more power. The “rookie” hit for average last year at just under a .290 clip, but just 15 homers represented a bit of a disappointment from what we expected him to be. The 30-year-old hit just one homer in 48 at-bats this spring, but again put forth a respectable average at .271. His five doubles also ranked second on the team in the Grapefruit slate. It would be surprising to see Yoshida hit lower than .270 in his second major league season, and we could see a little bump in his power. But I’d expect that to be more in the ballpark of 20 home runs. However, if he finds a little magic at the plate and could hit closer to 30, we could be looking at the Red Sox’s next All-Star in the making…
Coolbaugh’s projection: .284 average, 22 home runs, 93 RBIs.
Starting Pitchers
Brayan Bello — Bello is the man of the hour, whether he’s ready or not. He displayed real progress in his second season in the majors, posting a staff-leading 12 wins with a 4.24 ERA and 132 strikeouts. Now with a little confidence (and money) in his pocket, it’s reasonable to expect the 24-year-old right-hander to keep moving those numbers in the right direction. He wasn’t particularly sharp in four spring starts, going 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 13 innings. Pressure is a real factor for Bello, too. He’s shown he has the tools to hack it in the Boston market, but he’s yet to face the expectations of an ace and Opening Day starter…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 14-10, 3.91 ERA, 167 strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta — I think Pivetta’s true capabilities are best defined by a two-start stretch he made during the 2021 season. On June 24th, he tossed 6 2/3 innings of no-hit ball with eight strikeouts at Tampa Bay. The next time out five days later, Pivetta was shelled for six runs on nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings against Kansas City. At his best, Pivetta is a top-three caliber pitcher. At his worst, he’s a bottom-of-the-rotation or bullpen arm. Consistency has been the biggest struggle of Pivetta’s career. He found some out of the ‘pen last season, pitching to a 5-3 record and 3.07 ERA with a .970 WHIP in 22 appearances. As a starter, he went 5-6 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 16 outings. The one thing he has been pretty consistent with, at least during his Red Sox career, has been his strikeout pitch. He’s totaled 175, 175 and 183 in three full seasons with Boston. Pivetta was not great in four spring starts this year (0-1, 5.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), and I don’t expect much to change for him in the consistency department entering his age 31 season…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 9-13, 4.38 ERA, 165 strikeouts.
Kutter Crawford — Like Pivetta, Crawford feels like a victim of a staff with not much depth who is pitching higher in the rotation than he should be. Does the soon-to-be 28-year-old really profile as a No. 3 starter? For reference, I’ve long said recently-signed Arizona Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery (sigh…) is a quintessential No. 3 starter in this league. The Sox really seem to believe in Crawford, who was OK last season to the tune of a 6-8 record, a 4.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The right-hander was pretty good this spring with a sub 2.00 ERA (1.98) and 13 Ks (third among starters) in 13 2/3 innings over four starts, so he’s continuing to trend in the right direction if indeed his numbers weren’t a mirage. Still, we’re not talking about some top prospect in his early 20s like Bello. I don’t expect much more than spot-starter-level production out of him this season…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 11-9, 4.54 ERA, 144 strikeouts.
Garrett Whitlock — Whitlock’s career trajectory has gone in a negative direction in his first three seasons in the bigs. His first season as a 25-year-old saw him post an impressive 1.96 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 46 games — all out of the bullpen. Year two saw the team start to toy around with the idea of him as a starter before nagging hip injuries derailed him a bit. He finished that season with a 3.45 ERA and 82 punchouts in 31 games (nine starts). His ’23 campaign was fairly disastrous — a career-worst 5.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 72 strikeouts and had multiple injured list stints with right elbow issues throughout. Whitlock is a capable pitcher — one who could be among the game’s top long relievers — but the lack of depth is again forcing him into a spot where he’s probably not the most effective. He’s never pitched more than 78 1/3 innings in a single season and has thrown 223 1/3 total in his MLB career. It feels like a stretch to safely say he’s a lock to be able to double those workload numbers of a starter around 140 innings or so…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 14-7, 4.19 ERA, 130 strikeouts.
Tanner Houck — Last but not least, we have Houck. Like Whitlock, Houck is probably best in longer relief situations out of the ‘pen. It’s funny, Whitlock and Houck are probably two of the better long relievers in the game — if they were used that way. The soon-to-be 28-year-old had his best season mostly in relief in ’22 while pitching to a 3.15 ERA in 32 games (only four starts). His transition to full-time starter last season was bumpy, and he finished the year 6-10 with a career-worst 5.01 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and 99 punch outs. Houck hasn’t been terrible as a starter (4.17 ERA, 1.250 WHIP in 41 career starts), but he’s been much better as a reliever (2.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 33 bullpen outings). He went 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 16 punch outs in five games (two starts) this spring. We’ll see if he will be able to carry over that momentum into the regular season…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 7-6, 4.34 ERA, 133 strikeouts.
Team prediction
Vegas has set the over/under for wins at 77.5 for the Red Sox this season (per Covers.com), and Vegas generally knows best. For reference, they have the Yankees at 91.5, the Orioles at 90.5, the Blue Jays at 86.5 and the Rays at 84.5. So, if we’re following that logic, we’re looking at another last-place finish. No surprise there, we’ve all been expecting it — and the Red Sox basically willed it into existence with their roster construction this winter. But I do think the Sox will “surprise” us a bit… by finally reaching the 80-win plateau for the first time since their 92-win season in 2021. As far as the surprises go, I think that’s all we can realistically ask for this year…
Coolbaugh’s projection: 80-82, 5th in AL East. Miss playoffs by nine games.
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.