The Celtics have wrapped up the East, and they should, in short order, wrap up the top overall seed. With 10 games left to play, the only thing left to figure out, aside from their late-game execution and some lineup experimentation, is the playoff seeding.
And there's still a lot to figure out.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the most likely outcome is the same as the current standings:
Boston
Milwaukee
Cleveland
New York
Orlando
Indiana
Miami
Philadelphia
Chicago
Atlanta
Miami and Philly are tied and then there's a wide gap between them and Chicago/Atlanta, who are separated by 1.5 games. There's a chance Miami makes up the 1.5 games and jumps past Indiana into the top six, but they just lost last night to Golden State and they're dealing with a bunch of injuries. The teams do play each other once more, so that could be the determining factor.
So it seems the bottom four are fairly locked in. That would pit Miami against Philadelphia in one play-in game for the seventh seed, and the loser of that game against the winner of Atlanta/Chicago. The winner of that matchup would get the eighth seed. With Boston locked into the top seed, they obviously would play the eighth-seed team.
How that shakes out depends on how injuries heal for those teams. The biggest, most obvious potential return is Joel Embiid. Before getting hurt, Embiid was playing at an MVP level and the Sixers were looking more like an Eastern Conference Finals opponent. If he can come back, then the landscape of the Eastern Conference Playoffs changes significantly.
Of course, that's a huge “if.” There are calls in Philly media to just sit Embiid out the rest of the way and try again next year. The Sixers are set up to make major moves this summer, and the thought is the risk of re-injuring Embiid’s knee now for an ill-fated playoff run isn’t worth jeopardizing what many in Philadelphia expect to be their year next year.
If the Sixers agree, then that first round is a toss-up. The Heat and Sixers have split their non-Embiid games (with one more to play), so Miami’s health (Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Josh Richardson all have some variety of injury) could be the determining factor.
If Embiid is healthy, that could set up a 2-7 matchup with Milwaukee … and that would be a MASSIVE first-round series. Celtics fans might want to root for that just because it would put both teams through a grinder that could really tax them the rest of the way.
If Miami wins, then we’ll get a rematch of last year’s first round where Milwaukee was bounced by the Cinderella Heat. That would be a fun storyline, too … especially if Miami can win Game 1. That level of nerves would really put the Milwaukee sewage system to the test.
Go buy yourself some Tums, Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewage District Executive Director, Kevin Shafer. For those wishing mental distress upon Bucks fans, this is probably your preferred outcome.
Philly as a first-round matchup for Boston would be fun, but Trae Young will probably be back for the playoffs and he’ll have something to say about those play-in games. Of course, what he has to say might be a 1-9 3-point shooting night, but whatever he says will likely be loud either way.
Atlanta won their one game against the Embiid-less Sixers. As we’ve seen, the Hawks are a combustible offense capable of big runs, and the Sixers aren’t great at stopping those without Embiid.
So a rematch with the Hawks in the first round is not out of the question. We could very easily see a “run it back” scenario with the Celtics and Bucks just swapping seeds this year.
Looking ahead, the Celtics could be facing a rough second-round opponent. If New York and Orlando face off in the 4-5 series, Boston will be in line for a team that could give them real trouble.
The Magic have size and confidence when it comes to facing Boston. The Knicks have the toughness and personnel to bother Boston. We could be looking at the second round as the biggest challenge to Boston’s march to the NBA Finals. Obviously, OG Anunoby’s health is the key to that being the case, but I don’t anticipate him being out very much longer. And the Knicks are expected to get Mitchell Robinson back tonight, so things are starting to come together for them. Orlando might be too young to handle that kind of playoff spotlight, but the Knicks aren’t.
There's still a chance Cleveland can drop into that game because they're only a half game ahead of the Knicks. The Cavs are a little less scary, and they are easier to defend.
We’ll start to get a clearer picture soon. Cleveland still has games against Denver, the Clippers, Phoenix, Indy, the Lakers, and Philadelphia. New York plays Boston again (we’ll see who plays in that one for the Celtics on the front-end of a back-to-back) as well as OKC, Milwaukee, Sacramento, and Miami. Orlando plays Milwaukee twice, New Orleans, Golden State, Philadelphia and the Clippers. There are theoretically a lot of tough games that can change how things look.
That's how it looks right now for Boston. I still don’t expect them to face a Game 7 on the way to the Finals, but they will still be challenged regardless.