NBA Notebook: Bucks showed they can score with Celtics but can they win a series?

The Celtics could clinch the eastern conference's top seed this weekend with a win over the Bulls tonight and a Bucks loss to the Thunder on Sunday.

In 2015, the Warriors, who finished the year ahead in the west by 11.0 games, locked up the top seed on Mar. 28. before mostly cruising to the Finals. Only Memphis took them to six in round two before, albeit short-handed, the Cavaliers only survived six in the Finals with LeBron James playing at his highest level ever. That's the question everyone's asking now: can anyone even touch these Celtics -- winners of 21 of their last 24 -- in the playoffs?

The Nuggets provide an obvious answer as defending champions who swept Boston during the regular season, but that wouldn't occur until June. Some potential first-round opponents carry cachet, the Heat fell to No. 8 in the standings this month, the 76ers continue to slide down the standings as do the Pacers. All three of them either need to get healthy, drastically improve their play, or both to even reach a Game 6 against Boston. Philadelphia-Miami is the most likely seven-versus-eight play in game, with the loser playing the winner of an almost certain Bulls-Hawks nine-versus-ten game to face Boston.

As formidable as those teams could prove at their best, or at least their most disruptive, more legitimate contenders could emerge into round two. The Cavaliers have slid in the standings through nonstop injuries, and could bother Boston with size and defense. They last beat the Celtics with a 22-point fourth-quarter comeback. Their first-round loss last year, however, and poor health make skepticism warranted. Instead, another contender entered TD Garden without its star, played with poise and nearly pulled off a similar comeback in the fourth on Wednesday. 

"The only thing that I know is we're not going to catch (the Celtics) in the standings," Doc Rivers, their new head coach, said before that game. "They're terrific. They've been the best team in the NBA thus far, but as I've learned and we've all learned, you don't get a lot for that. You just get to be called the best team in the NBA right now and they're gonna be hard to beat. They're hard to beat in this building, but that's why, from our standpoint, we don't look at all that. We just look at us from within and see if we can be ready when that time comes." 

Rivers' Bucks lost, 122-119, after Jayson Tatum tightened up and scored four straight points while Damian Lillard and Bobby Portis missed a game-tying three and free throw, respectively, down the stretch. They became the first team this season to shoot over 53% from the field against the Celtics when they handed them their worst defeat, 135-102, in Milwaukee in January. A loss Boston largely shook off as a result of playing five games in seven days. They did it again on Wednesday. 

Another loss would've been more difficult to brush under the rug, even while playing without Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser. A win in crunch time improved the Celtics to 12-10 in games played within one possession in the final three minutes. Boston slowed down briefly against a Milwaukee zone wrinkle, then transitioned into Tatum isolation play to cut out turnovers and get shots off. He attacked Malik Beasley head-on, underscoring massive defensive concerns that still exist on the Bucks despite some improvement under Rivers. Yet Tatum shot 1-for-6 in the second half, all in the fourth.

"I think (Tatum) should (go the third quarter without a shot) all the time,” Rivers joked after. “I thought the zone was the reason for that, because they were moving the ball around and by the time it got to him, there was no time to shoot. I thought they made a nice adjustment. They just gave him the ball and went ISO, which is a pretty good when you are Jayson Tatum.”

Milwaukee now stands at 13-11 under Rivers, ranking 13th in offense and 17th in defense in what amounts to a narrow positive net rating (+1.7). They're fifth in offense for the season (118.8 pts per 100), which still trails the Celtics by four whole points. Results like Wednesdays litter their schedule, a mad scramble comeback either pulling out an extremely difficult victory or falling short. They're 23-12 in crunch-time finishes, with only the Nuggets surpassing their +24.2 edge in close and late games. That ability to storm back with a barrage of threes, execute and especially defend (101.5 DRTG) could allow them to steal a game or two from a Celtics team that tends to relax and slow late in fourth quarters. Joe Mazzulla noted the Celtics' lack of reps against zone lately as a reason for the near-meltdown, while they also haven't played many close games since their loss at Denver last month. It's a vulnerability. 

Lillard also exited the game unfazed by Jaylen Brown's full-court press on him, the Bucks now scoring 50 points across 50 possessions where Brown has guarded Lillard. A strong efficiency. Lillard shot 11-for-21, while Khris Middleton finished 8-for-11 in his best performance against the Celtics in years. Portis' offensive rebounding came as some surprise on a team that's largely abandoned that area of the game in favor of transition defense under Rivers (23.4 OREB%, 28th). Defense, as it has all year for the Bucks, became the issue. Boston shot 6-for-7 against Brook Lopez, went at Lillard all game long to finish 7-for-14 when he guarded the shooter and Middleton allowed 7-for-10 shooting. Only Beasley (7-17), Pat Connaughton (3-11) and Portis (2-10) showed some poise on that end. 

"(It's) everything (guarding) them. They have three, and you can say five in many cases, incredible players. It starts with Jayson and Jaylen. They have the ability to get their own shots, to create shots, to create threes," Rivers said. "They both attack the basket. They both have a post game. They both shoot threes and controlling them, as far as the paint, controls their threes. The more that you keep them in front of you, the less threes they can take. The more they get in the paint, the more threes they take. It's not that hard to say. It's just a lot harder to do." 

That especially became the case in second units. Patrick Beverley struggled to contain Payton Pritchard's dribble penetration as the Celtics reserve scorched the Bucks for 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting. Danilo Gallinari, who chose the Bucks after his buyout from Detroit and told Boston Sports Journal he did not speak with Boston about a return, scored four points while struggling to defend on the perimeter. Jae Crowder started in place of Antetokounmpo and barely resonated in the loss. The talent disparity three-through-eight on their rosters is staggering, a monster Milwaukee made in part by giving up Holiday in the Lillard trade. On some nights though, Antetokounmpo and Lillard give the Bucks a higher ceiling between their star duos.

Is that all enough to win a series? From a roster and strategic standpoint, Milwaukee looks like a team working toward making its title push next year after they can alter the roster further and Rivers can make his full imprint over an offseason. Wednesday's game showed two teams closer than 11.0 games in the standings, Lillard legitimately challenging Al Horford by dragging him out to half-court repeatedly, the Bucks flashing some intriguing sets that altered how Kristaps Porzingis had to guard pick-and-rolls and Lopez' presence in the paint discouraging Porzingis' masterful post-game in a 6-for-16 night. Antetokounmpo could've made all the difference in the game if he could find a way to hedge away from a Celtics offensive player, but Holiday has found ways to exploit teams to try to do that (most recently Denver with Jokic). 

That's how Boston has set itself apart, and might prove to be the biggest benefit of trading for the former Bucks star who has guarded Antetokounmpo, brings institutional knowledge of Milwaukee and some undertones of desiring revenge against the team that traded him last summer. As for the Bucks, they're hoping for nothing more than to be a tough out. Something they've shown enough signs of being against Boston in a potential east finals. Both sides have held their cards to some degree, with Antetokounmpo rolling on 7.3% of the Bucks' possessions, yet posting 1.19 points per possession (60th percentile). Unleashing his pick-and-roll game fully off Lillard could be the final step to pushing the Celtics to 6-7 games if the opportunity comes. 

"I don't know where (we're at)," Rivers said. "I know we've improved. I think we're gonna be very tough to beat once (the playoffs come). The transition is what it is. It's probably, in some ways, easier with the players that we have, because they're very coachable ... which is what you wanted. In other ways, it's been way tougher than I thought. Just because you don't have all your staff. You're relying on guys you've never met before, and so those are the things that have probably been more difficult, but those are working too. You can't (replace Holiday). That was one of the first things I said, we're not gonna run the Jrue Holiday defense ... so it forces you to play differently. Jrue's ability to pressure the ball up the floor. We don't have that ... we're still learning that quite honestly. But we're getting better at it." 

Here's what else happened around the NBA this week...

Atlanta (30-39): Host the Celtics on Monday and Thursday in an unusually long stop in one city while the Hawks host the Trail Blazers in between the two games on Wednesday. Trae Young (finger) remains out, due for evaluation four weeks after his surgery this weekend. Jalen Johnson (ankle) could miss both matchups after suffering a sprain on Monday, AJ Griffin is managing his own ankle sprain and Onyeka Okongwu is listed as doubtful on Saturday against Charlotte managing a big toe ailment. The Hawks have lost 5-of-6, including to the Blazers and by double-digits to the Lakers and Suns this week.

Boston (56-14): Sam Hauser narrowly avoided a significant ankle sprain when he stepped on Tyus Jones' foot alongside the Wizards bench after missing only the third of 13 three-point attempts in less than three quarters in Washington last Sunday. Hauser tied Jaylen Brown with 10 threes and reached within one three of Marcus Smart's Celtics single-game record 11, missing the chance to pursue Klay Thompson's NBA record 14. Jayson Tatum rested the following night in a win over Detroit then led a second win over Milwaukee in three meetings on Wednesday with two late baskets after Boston narrowly squandered the lead. Tatum sat again on Friday after only resting in three games previously all season. The Celtics won their eighth straight and visit Chicago on Saturday. With 12 games left, they can tie the 1986 Celtics for the second-best record in franchise history with 10 wins.

Chicago (34-36): Building an inordinately strong case to face the Celtics in the first round with a magic number of 10 to clinch the No. 9 seed. With the Hawks injured and fading, but almost certain to secure the No. 10 seed, they'd need to beat Atlanta, then the loser of the 7-8 game to move onto Boston. They host the Celtics on Saturday having signed former Boston and Chicago wing Javonte Green to a 10-day deal, who has spent this season with the Santa Clara Warriors in the G-League, averaging 12.8 PPG on 48.9% shooting. NBC Sports Chicago reported increasing buzz Lonzo Ball (knee) could play next season after last playing in January, 2022. The Bulls are 4-4 over their last eight, and posting a -3.3 net rating since the break (21st). 

Cleveland (43-27): Donovan Mitchell underwent a procedure on his nose after fracturing it on Monday against the Pacers. He'll miss roughly one week after only recently missing seven games with a knee injury. This absence will eliminate him from All-NBA status due to the new rule mandating at least 65 games played to win league awards. Mitchell already made the decision, Shams Charania noted this week, to prioritize the playoffs late this season while he also recovers from a knee bruise. Head coach JB Bickerstaff discussed the impact gambling on sports earlier this week prior to the allegation that Shohei Ohtani's interpreter stole money from him to pay off millions in gambling debt. Tyrese Haliburton had said he felt like a prop due to gambling. 

“They got my telephone number and were sending me crazy messages about where I live and my kids and all that stuff,” Bickerstaff said, describing an incident with gamblers he went through. “So it is a dangerous game and a fine line that we’re walking for sure ... It brings added pressure ... It brings a distraction to the game that can be difficult for players, coaches, referees, everybody that’s involved in it. And I think that we really have to be careful with how close we let it get to the game and the security of the people who are involved in it." 

Dallas (41-29): Kyrie Irving tossed a left-handed hook shot from the free throw line over Nikola Jokic at the buzzer to beat the Nuggets, the first game-winner with no time left in his career. Irving also threw down his fourth dunk of 2023-24, an alley-oop from Luka Doncic, as the best and most stable season of his career since leaving the Celtics continued while the Mavericks won three straight and 7-of-10. Irving is shooting just south of 50-40-90.

Denver (49-21): Michael Porter Jr.'s welcome hot streak arrived on the eve of the playoffs -- 20.7 PPG on 60.2% FG and 48.5% 3PT over the past 10 games. The Nuggets have won eight of those, including at the buzzer in overtime against a scorching Anthony Edwards and a Timberwolves team that continues to challenge them as much as any team. Denver sits 0.5 games behind the Thunder for the west's top seed, but does not control its destiny. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a key wing on the team and two-time champion, addressed his future with the team ahead of his potential free agency. 

Detroit (12-58): Losers of six straight, including a last-second finish against the heat that Cade Cunningham blamed on himself against head coach Monty Williams' wishes. The Pistons also lost by 20 twice to the Celtics this week, which became scary when doctors uncovered a blood clot in rookie Ausar Thompson that will end his season. Thompson is expected to resume non-contact activities by the offseason and already resumed conditioning. Isaiah Stewart will miss the rest of the year with a hamstring strain he suffered in Boston on Monday. Stanley Umude fractured his ankle and is out for the year as well. James Wiseman scored 24 points nine rebounds and four assists in a spot start against the Celtics on Friday. 

“With Ausar, I’m just glad that the doctors caught it and from all of the information that I’ve gotten, they’re handling it in a — it’s a medical situation but I’m glad they caught it,” Monty Williams said. 

Golden State (36-32)/Houston (34-35): Look out, Ime Udoka's Rockets have won 9-of-10 despite losing Tari Eason and Alperen Şengün for the season and pulled within 2.5 games of the Warriors for the 10th and final postseason spot in the west. Their schedule softened slightly recently, beating the Wizards and Spurs twice during this stretch, but they also blew out a strong Cavaliers team and beat the Bulls by 10 to extend their win streak to seven in a win capped by a scuffle between DeMar DeRozan and Jalen Green. Green has averaged 26.5 PPG on 49.5% shooting over his last 10, returning to the player the Rockets hoped to build around last season, while Fred VanVleet is shooting 44.2% from three and averaging 10.3 APG. 

The Warriors have lost 3-of-5 and visit the Rockets on Apr. 4, posting a narrow +1.5 net rating since the break. Draymond Green looked back at the 2022 Finals in response to comments by LeBron James' about their IQ advantage over Boston. 

“That to a certain degree is very true,” Green said. “I think we definitely had a higher IQ at the time. But I think we also had more than just higher IQ though, it’s also [that we had] higher IQ in the moment. You get in these playoffs sometimes and this is the NBA Finals we’re talking about, sometimes those lights can get a little bit brighter than you expect.”

Clippers (43-25): Russell Westbrook (hand) is expected to return from surgery next week after missing the last 10 games, during which the Clippers finished 5-5 and fell 4.0 games behind the Timberwolves and the top three teams in the west. That positions LA to most likely face one of the Pelicans, Mavericks, Suns or Kings in a difficult 4-5 first-round series, and they only have a 1.0 game advantage on scorching New Orleans for home court. James Harden tried to provide a bizarre wake-up call to the team by trying to close out on Kawhi Leonard after he passed to him for a corner three. More importantly, the Clippers beat the Blazers twice after losing 4-of-5. 

"I was trying to bring some excitement to this team," Harden said. "I think these last few weeks have been a fog for us. I think every team goes through it. So I think it was just me trying to create energy, create a great vibe for this team. Maybe it would've been better if he had made the shot, but give them something to laugh about, some excitement."

Lakers (37-32): Christian Wood (knee), Gabe Vincent (knee) and Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) will likely miss the rest of the regular season with the Lakers maintaining a 3.0 game lead of the Rockets as the No. 9 team in the west. If LA can't overcome its 3.0 game deficit to the Kings in the closing weeks of the season, they'll have to win two games in the play-in, potentially without the players listed above, to reach the playoffs against the No. 1 seed. They lost to the Warriors last Saturday in a likely preview of that 9-10 game despite 40 points and nine assists from LeBron James. They've also won 6-of-10.

Memphis (24-47): Leave it to Marcus Smart. The former Celtic was ejected from a game he wasn't playing in earlier this week. Draymond Green also accused head coach Taylor Jenkins of taking a dive during a skirmish between the Grizzlies and Warriors.

Milwaukee (45-25): Giannis Antetokounmpo returned from a two-game absence with a hamstring injury to score 21 points in a Bucks win over the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back. Milwaukee lost in Boston the night before, with Antetokounmpo staying in Milwaukee, but rallied from behind by 21 points to within one late. Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis combined for 78 points in Antetokounmpo's place. They play again Apr. 9. 

New Orleans (43-27): Brandon Ingram (knee) will miss at least two weeks after a scary-looking injury on Thursday against the Magic where his left knee bent as he dove into traffic in the paint. Imaging diagnosed him with a bone bruise, some relief for a team that had managed to find health and consistent play late in the season ahead of Zion Williamson's likely first playoff run. New Orleans had won three straight before that setback against Orlando, bouncing back with a blowout win over the Heat on Friday where CJ McCollum posted 30 points with seven assists despite Williamson scoring four. The Pelicans rank fourth in net rating (+9.2) since the break and have won 8-of-10 and 10-of-15. 

New York (41-28): Could return Mitchell Robinson (ankle) to their lineup by the end of the month in a miraculous comeback by their starting center who they originally feared might miss the season after undergoing surgery in December. Robinson told The Athletic he still has to clear conditioning hurdles with 10 regular season games left. Julius Randle (shoulder) still hasn't been cleared for contact and OG Anunoby (elbow) shut down shortly after returning from surgery due to pain and swelling. Reserve center Isaiah Hartenstein (achilles) remains on a minute restriction. New York fell behind the Magic to the fifth seed on Thursday by 0.5 games, and sit an equal distance, 3.5 games, from the No. 2 seed as they do above the play-in line (MIA). 

Oklahoma City (49-20): Can reach 50 wins on Sunday against the Bucks for the first time since 2016 when Kevin Durant left. They're already nine games better than last season and control their destiny to clinch the west's No. 1 seed, an unthinkable accomplishment before the season. That squarely positions Mark Daigneault to win coach of the year, narrowly my pick over Joe Mazzulla if I had to vote today. The Thunder remain the second-youngest roster in the NBA and rank third in offense and fifth in defense, with the resume of the second-best team in the league behind the Celtics. They've won four straight games and travel to Boston in less than two weeks having already defeated the Celtics at home. They can easily tie the 2016 and 2011 Thunder for the third-best record in franchise history (ninth including Seattle). They need to finish 11-2 to tie the 2013 Thunder's 60-22 standard. 

Orlando (42-28): What should we do sooner? Rule out the Magic as a first-round Celtics opponent (4.0 game lead over PHI/MIA) or talk about them as a potential second-round one? They've won five straight to pass the Knicks for home court in the west, have already achieved their best season since 2011 and rank No.1 in defense since the break by a whole point per 100 possessions above New Orleans. They're an unproven, but rugged player in the east that's extremely well-coached and equipped to guard wings and bigs. They should receive slightly more discussion. ESPN ranked them No. 10, period. 

Phoenix (41-29): Kevin Durant passed Shaquille O'Neal for eighth on the all-time NBA scoring list with 28,629 this week. He now sits nearly 3,000 behind Wilt Chamberlain for seventh, with Michael Jordan and Dirk Nowitzki only slightly ahead of Chamberlain. Durant has scored 1,737 points this year, positioning him over one year from that next milestone. The Suns signed Isaiah Thomas to a 10-day contract, who will not appear in the team's rotation, but made his first NBA appearance in two seasons for the franchise that traded him to the Celtics, where he had his outbreak between 2015-17.

Portland (19-51): Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) is ramping up in hopes of playing again before the season ends. He's been out Feb. 2 with an ailment in the same arm that cost him time last postseason with the Celtics. He's signed to one last year at $22.5 million next season. LeBron James described Brogdon, Robert Williams III and the picks Boston sent to Portland for Jrue Holiday as a bag of Lays potato chips in his new podcast. 

Sacramento (40-29): Kevin Huerter is out indefinitely, potentially for the rest of the season, with a torn labrum and dislocated shoulder. The Kings fell to the eighth seed with a stunning loss to the Wizards on Thursday. Malik Monk has emerged as the heavy favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year. 

Washington (12-58): The Wizards will likely stay in downtown Washington D.C. for the foreseeable future after the attorney general in the city ruled that the team, alongside the NHL Washington Capitals, cannot break its lease until 2047 due to a bond/lease agreement with the city. Virginia left the initial plan to move into Alexandria out of the state's budget plan and Washington's ownership began discussions with the state of Maryland about a move there. Monument Sports, which owns the two teams alongside the WNBA Mystics, said in a statement that it disagrees with the AG ruling.