NBA Notebook: Offense down as NBA weighs the state of defense in basketball

The NBA acknowledged scoring has declined to teams this week after many observers noticed the dynamic change from the beginning of this season. Adrian Wojnarowksi reported the league's competition committee noted an increasing focus on offensive players veering off their paths into defenders and hunting fouls as the reason for the decline. That emphasis began in January and February, which placed it before the increase in conversation about the state of offensive play in the NBA, the freedom for players to defend and what balance is best for the game. Still, the league acknowledged in those memos that it was assessing the state of offense vs. defense. ESPN also reported a four-point per team decrease in scoring and a 1.9% reduction in foul calls in recent weeks. 

Despite that, the Celtics have maintained and built on their historic offensive stature, scoring 127.4 points per 100 possessions in 11 games since the all-star break, with a nearly seven-point gap between them and the No. 2 team, Denver, over that stretch. If foul calls have driven scoring down, it would make sense that such a directive, which league officials denied to ESPN, wouldn't as adversely impact a Boston offense that never overly relied on them in the first place. The Celtics generated 16.9 free throw attempts per game (27th) recently, down from only 21.6 (21st) previously. Now, that latter figure would rank eighth, and whereas no teams averaged under 19.0 before the All-Star Game. Boston is one of 11 teams below that line. 

"It's hard to game plan with the firepower and skill level in today's NBA player, and the system most of us are running," Frank Vogel said before Thursday's game in Boston. "We're trying to shoot a lot of threes, we're trying to keep the paint open, it makes it very difficult to create the defensive motors that we were able to create a few years back. In terms of legislating all that stuff, I leave that to the league. I just try to focus on trying to win games within the rules that are in place." 

The 2023-24 season remains the highest-scoring (114.8 per game) in league history since 1970 (eight seasons in the 1960s saw the highest scoring), with the past five seasons aside from 2022 stacking up as five of the seven most offensive seasons over that stretch. The past eight seasons make up the top-eight points per 100 possession years ever, with 115.6 still sitting almost a full point over last year's 114.8, which had increased by nearly three points over 2022's 112.0. More offensive skill, efficient shooting and the proliferation of the three-point shot all stand as obvious answers to the annual leaps. The NBA, over time, also made playing defense more difficult through rules such as landing space flagrant fouls, the removal of the hand check, defensive three-second violations and broader initiatives aimed at freedom of movement. 

Threes, long a villain to traditional fans, can only take the blame for so long. John Hollinger wrote, after attending the Sloan Sports Analytic conference in Boston earlier this month, that a paper there argued about how a higher free throw rate on two-pointers make it such that teams driving up their three-point attempt rate to the highest levels in the league have crossed the equilibrium point where a three is worth more than a two. The Celtics, obviously, lead the league by attempting 47% of their shots from deep. The second-place Mavericks only boast a 44.2% three-point rate. Even Mazzulla sees that dynamic potentially changing. 

"That three-point rate is important depending upon offense and defense, and how you can control that," Mazzulla told Boston Sports Journal earlier this month. "There are a few teams in the league that are difficult to control because of the speed and the rate at which they play with. I think the league is changing a little bit to where there are a few teams that are just going to volume and variance, instead of the right people shooting them at the right times. So you have to be able to combat those. That's the biggest thing I've learned playing against five or six different teams. It's very difficult to control the volume and the variance. So you have to find small ways to do that. The (Philadelphia) game, the free throw line was the way for us to do that. It was also to make sure the ball got to certain guys ... there are definitely some teams that have helped us learn how we can ... combat that. Playing the Indianas, Philadelphia without (Joel) Embiid, a couple of other teams with speed and they have multiple guys who shoot the ball at a pretty good rate." 

Free throws typically decrease into the postseason. Last year, teams attempted 23.5 per game, the Celtics shot 21.6 and that fell to 20.0. Denver took 22.1 per game and Miami fell to 19.8 over their runs to the NBA Finals. Zion Williamson, commenting on what he's seen that's led to less scoring, said he believes the referees are beginning their playoff approach early with fewer than 20 games to go until the postseason. That would make some sense, as Jayson Tatum shot 10 fewer free throw attempts in March compared to January over 14 games in each month last year. Boston attempted 23.3 per game in January, 17.9 in February then 21.5 in March and 17.3 in April. Erik Spoelstra noticed that trend, specifically related to Jimmy Butler, playing out this season and told reporters he hadn't received a memo from the league about rule adjustments. 

The free throw's role in the league subtly reducing offense makes sense. The amount teams take have already reached historic lows though, so there's only so much the NBA can do to scale back on scoring in those areas. The 22.2 that teams attempt already ranks tied for the fourth-lowest of any season since 1974 when they started tracking them, a number that falls below 2023's 23.5 despite scoring still happening more than last year. It's the 36.7% shooting from three that's currently tied with four other seasons for the highest mark in league history, and compared to 1996, when that first happened, there are 29 more attempts each night now, bringing up back to one of the chief reasons scoring keeps rising. 

Can players keep improving from deep? That's when more radical, structural changes to the game would come under consideration, among the wilder ones thrown around include removing the shorter corner three. Those won't happen anytime soon, if ever, while smaller shifts don't appear to be a priority for the commissioner. With offense the topic of conversation at his annual mid-season press conference, though, it's noteworthy that scoring dipped almost immediately to begin the second half. That also helped the Celtics improve from a 110.5 defensive rating before the break to a 109.9 since with their offense only skyrocketing. 

"I actually am pleased with the state of the game,” Adam Silver said in Indianapolis last month. “Having said that, I know there are some coaches who feel that we’ve hampered in some ways defensive players’ ability to play defense, at least the way it used to be played in this league. In part, that’s been very intentional. There was a period of time in this league when people thought the game had become too physical and we’d taken away some of the aesthetic beauty from the game. I was one of those people that felt that way in the 90s. Whether or not there needs to be any adjustments now is something we listen to our coaches, we listen to our players and the competition committee will continue to consider.”

Here's what else happened around the NBA this week... 

Atlanta (29-36): Forward Saddiq Bey tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season, adding to the Hawks' injury woes that include Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu. Bey, 24, arrived in a deadline trade from Detroit last season and had been shooting only 41.6% from the field and 31.6% from three this year after a strong finish to last season. He becomes a restricted free agent this summer. At his position, Jalen Johnson has emerged as arguably the most important building block on the roster. Johnson has also missed the Hawks' last three games with an ankle sprain. They're 3.5 games up on Brooklyn for the final postseason spot in the east. 

Boston (52-14): Jaylen Brown continued his tear to begin the second half, averaging 28.9 PPG on 54% shooting in 10 games since the all-star break and emerging again for All-NBA contention. The Celtics won all four games with Kristaps Porziņģis out with a hamstring strain. He's considered day-to-day to begin next week in Washington. Boston clinched a playoff spot for the 10th straight season with Thursday's home win over Phoenix, improving to 30-3 at TD Garden. Their magic number to seal the east's No. 1 seed is seven. For home court advantage through the playoffs: 11. Joe Mazzulla, the closing minutes of Thursday's win over the Suns, ran onto the floor to contest Royce O'Neale's shot after Phoenix called timeout, an odd sight.

Brooklyn (26-40): Ben Simmons underwent a second back surgery since arriving to the Nets, a microscopic partial discectomy on Thursday to alleviate the pinched nerve in his lower back, the Nets announced. Brooklyn expects him to make a recovery in time for training camp this fall. He played 15 games this season and will enter the final season of his contract in 2024-25, making $40 million. 

Cleveland (42-24): Donovan Mitchell (knee) returned from a seven-game absence and scored 14 points with five assists over 28 minutes. Evan Mobley (ankle) got out of his walking boot and remains at least two weeks from playing after suffering the injury two weeks ago against the Celtics. Cleveland trails the Bucks for the No. 2 seed by 0.5 games, 10.0 behind Boston. They're 3.0 up on New York. 

Dallas (38-29): Luka Dončić left the Mavericks' win over the Warriors early last week with left hamstring tightness. He did not travel to Oklahoma City, where Dallas lost, 126-119. Dončić underwent an MRI that returned clean and the team hopes, according to Shams Charania, he'll return to the lineup for Sunday's home game against the Nuggets. Josh Green suffered a right ankle sprain on Thursday and X-rays returned negative. He did not return. Center Daniel Gafford fell two makes short of Wilt Chamberlain's record 35 makes in a row across five games. Rookie big man Dereck Lively II simultaneously made 18 in a row across three games, becoming the first teammates to do so since at least 1997-98.  

Denver (46-20): Tied the Thunder for the top seed in the west with a four-game win streak that started at home against the Celtics, becoming the only team in the NBA to sweep its season series over Boston. It continued over Toronto and Miami this week, winning another Finals rematch over the Heat behind 25 points from Michael Porter Jr. They trail the Celtics by 6.0 games for the NBA's top record. 

Detroit (12-53): Face the Celtics twice this week, at home on Monday and on Friday in Detroit with Boston the second and front half of back-to-backs in each meeting. The Pistons built a 28-point lead before halftime in their previous meeting. Detroit tied an NBA record with 28 straight losses, but since have won 3-of-4 and 4-of-8 since the end of February in their best stretch of the season. Jalen Duren joined Wilt Chamberlain and two others as the only players to post 20 points, 20 rebounds and five assists while shooting at least 88%, quietly recording 36 double-doubles for the team that's no longer the worst in the NBA. He's one of only two players to have 20-20-5 games twice. The Pistons rank ninth in defense in March (-3.6). Zora Stephenson, Abby Chin, and DiJonai Carrington will call the Monday Celtics-Pistons game on NBC Sports Boston in honor of Women's History Month. 

Golden State (34-31): Steph Curry (ankle) is expected to return on Saturday against the Lakers with the Warriors hanging on by 3.5 games above the Rockets for the final west postseason spot. Golden State lost to the Spurs and Mavericks across his three-game absence, but won the second game of the series against San Antonio highlighted by rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis' slam over Victor Wembanyama that'll go down as one of the best of the season. Wembanyama said it's a compliment that it's viewed as such an achievement to pull off a highlight against him. 

Houston (31-35): Alperen Şengün avoided a more significant injury when he turned his right ankle and knee severely underneath the basket this week, but he will likely miss the rest of the season after he received a diagnosis of a grade three ankle sprain. The play happened during the closing minutes of a Houston win over the Kings and with the Rockets pulling within 3.5 games of the Warriors for the final postseason spot in the west. Şengün had also been playing the basketball of his career, averaging 20.5 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 4.5 APG on 51.6% shooting over his final 10 games of his third season. Ahead of the final year on his rookie contract, Shams Charania noted that he'll become eligible for a five-year, $225 million contract extension this summer.

Indiana (37-30): Bennedict Mathurin will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn right labrum in his shoulder. Mathurin emerged among the Sixth Man of the Year contenders as a regular contributor off the Pacers bench into his second season, scoring 14.5 PPG while shooting 44.5% (37.4% 3PT) from the field. It's a blow to a Pacers team already seeing diminishing returns from Tyrese Haliburton (16.1 PPG, 43.9% FG, 23.7% 3PT since the break) late in the season and awaiting the return of Doug McDermott (calf), who practiced on Friday. He shot 29.2% from the field in six games since his arrival from San Antonio as an effective Buddy Hield replacement. Indiana ranks sixth in offense and 20th in defense since the break and are 5-5 over its last 10. 

Clippers (42-23): Kawhi Leonard had an injury scare earlier this week, leaving the Clippers' loss to the Timberwolves with back spasms that Ty Lue said had lingered before the game. Leonard left the arena entirely, but returned to score 27 points and beat the Bulls before losing to the Pelicans on Friday. James Harden missed the New Orleans game with a shoulder injury while Normal Powell left the game after tweaking his left leg. Russell Westbrook, who underwent left hand surgery earlier this month after fracturing it, hopes to return before the start of the playoffs. 

Lakers (36-31): Getting healthier, with Gabe Vincent (knee) progressing to non-contact work and conditioning for a potential return this month while Cam Reddish (ankle) returned to the practice court after dealing with extreme pain early in the week, according to Darvin Ham. Jared Vanderbilt (foot) is progressing, but hasn't advanced to on-court work. Elsewhere, D'Angelo Russell strangely criticized former Dennis Schröder as the reason he and Darvin Ham struggled to work together late last season. Schröder responded to the NY Post, saying that Russell's comments showed immaturity. 

Memphis (23-44): Brandon Clarke (Achilles) is nearing a return to action over the next week. He's been out since his rupture on Mar. 3, 2023. The team also upgraded Desmond Bane (ankle) to questionable on Saturday, who's been out since Jan. 2. Marcus Smart (finger), Derrick Rose (osteitis pubis) and Ziaire Williams (hip) remain out on one of the most injured rosters you'll ever see. 

Miami (35-30): Tyler Herro (foot) received a PRP injection after missing the last 10 games will be evaluated in 1-2 weeks. Patty Mills has taken over the depth wing role since arriving from the buyout market, pushing Haywood Highsmith out of the rotation. Between that, assessing the starting lineup tradeoffs between Herro and Duncan Robinson when Herro returns, along with Bam Adebayo trying again to integrate the three into his game, the Heat are back in a regular season flux. They fell to the No. 8 seed in the east as losers of four straight, though only 3.5 games behind the Knicks for home court in the first round. As it stands, the Heat and 76ers would face in the play-in, with the winner advancing to play Boston in round one. Not ideal if Joel Embiid recovers.

Milwaukee (43-24): Giannis Antetokounmpo called this season the hardest of his career after integrating Damian Lillard, playing inconsistently to begin the year and seeing Adrian Griffin fired and replaced by Doc Rivers mid-season in an interview with The Athletic. Still, the Bucks are in position to clinch the No. 2 seed in the east, rank fifth in offense and improved to 16th in defense. Milwaukee visits Boston on Wednesday for their first meeting since the Bucks pulverized the Celtics at home, 135-102, in January and hired Rivers shortly after. Antetokounmpo has quietly played as well as ever, averaging 30.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG and 1.0 BPG on 61.6% shooting. 

"I had the procedure done on my left knee in the end of June. And I had to get back to myself. I feel like when the season started, I wasn’t (myself). And the reason was that I hadn’t played basketball until like the second week of training (camp)," he said. "I had to get back to being by myself. But emotionally, and mentally, it’s been draining. I’m not going to lie to you. It’s been extremely tough, from Coach Bud (Mike Budenholzer) being let go (after the Bucks fell to Miami in the first round of the playoffs) to Coach Griff (Adrian Griffin) coming in, being let go, then (interim) Coach Joe (Prunty) for three games, Coach Doc (Rivers) coming in, and then you have Dame. It’s been tough. But at the end of the day, I think when you face adversity in life, that’s when you excel the most."

New Orleans (39-26): Pulled within 2.0 games of the Clippers for home court in round one and have mostly gone under the radar in what's become an excellent season despite their never-ending string of injuries. They've won 6-of-10 and will inevitably make the playoffs for the first time in Zion Williamson's career. They rank 10th in offense and shockingly first in defense since the all-star break, holding the Clippers to 104 points, Philadelphia to 95 and Indiana to 102 since March began. Williamson is averaging 23.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.1 APG since the break on 56.1% shooting. 

New York (39-27): OG Anunoby is questionable on Saturday while managing his return from elbow surgery. He scored 14 points on 6-for-11 shooting against the 76ers, then posted 12 points and nine rebounds in Portland while appearing to aggravate the injury. The Knicks also mostly benched Alec Burks (31.3% FG since trade) while Bojan Bogdanović has similarly struggled (11.8 PPG on 40% FG) since their arrivals from Detroit. Jalen Brunson saw his minutes limit lifted this week and Isaiah Hartenstein's will remain in place for the immediate future. New York is 0.5 games up on Orlando for the No. 4 seed. 

“There’s gonna be some times where there’s gonna be soreness. (Anunoby) played through it,” Tom Thibodeau said. “He was fine. (The doctor) looked at him. There’s gonna be times where he gets hit and you just try to keep going. So we’ll see where he is.” 

Philadelphia (36-30): Signed Kai Jones to a 10-day deal with Joel Embiid remaining out, marking the young center's return to the NBA after the Hornets waived him in training camp amid bizarre behavior on social media. Jones averaged 3.4 PPG on 55.8% shooting while playing sparingly in his second season last year. Charlotte selected him No. 19 overall in the 2021 draft. NBC Sports Philadelphia reported that Embiid could return at the beginning of April.

Phoenix (39-28): Got Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker healthy together and still couldn't hang with Boston, losing twice to the Celtics in one week. Durant lauded Boston's ability to outshoot the Suns from three (50-31 alone in attempts). Beal played well, Durant started hot and Booker struggled, his ankle looking in pain at times during a 9-for-20 showing. He bounced back with 11 assists in a win over the Hornets the next night, Phoenix moving into a tie with Sacramento for the west's No. 6 seed. That marked Booker's first double-double since January. Jusuf Nurkic grabbed 20 more rebounds in the loss to the Celtics, averaging nearly 17 per game over his last seven appearances by recording 117 over that stretch. 

Portland (19-47): Not quite a revenge game for Dalano Banton against his former Celtics teammates on Monday, scoring eight points on 2-for-6 shooting as his Blazers lost despite playing well. Deandre Ayton scored at will over the Celtics' drop, playing his best basketball since arriving in Portland recently by averaging 29.0 PPG and 16.8 RPG on 61.2% shooting in four games since returning from a hand injury. He recently discussed personal challenges that led to his trade from Phoenix. 

Sacramento (38-27): Nobody seems to be talking about the season Domantas Sabonis is having. He scored 17 points with 19 rebounds and 10 assists to down the Lakers, expanding his league lead in triple-doubles this season. He's averaging 20.1 PPG, 13.6 RPG and 8.4 APG on 61.5% shooting for the season while the Kings fight with the Suns for home court. Basketball Reference considers Sabonis sixth in the MVP race after finishing seventh in 2023 voting. Trey Lyles will miss at least two weeks with an MCL sprain. 

San Antonio (14-53): Victor Wembanyama blocked Nikola Jokic's first shot, but the MVP favorite went on to shoot 13-for-19 in a narrow Nuggets win over the Spurs in Austin. Wembanyama posted 17 points, nine rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks, a modest outing. Denver coach Michael Malone sounded off on the venue, where the Spurs have played a game for each of the past two seasons to widen their reach in Texas. 

“It has a preseason feel to it,” Malone said. “I hope for our players that once the jump ball goes up that we understand this is not the preseason, this is a real game. We have to lock in and give it the attention and respect that it deserves.”

Toronto (23-44): RJ Barrett's younger brother Nathan died on Tuesday and the forward will be away from the team indefinitely. 

“RJ knows really well that we are here for him and that he can make a call and get anything that he needs,” head coach Darko Rajaković said. “Sometimes it’s just a conversation. Sometimes it’s just getting in the gym and getting some shots and getting your thoughts off of it. (We’re) just making sure that everybody knows that we are here for (all the players), that we’re gonna help you in any way possible. The worst thing for anybody in that case is just to shut down and get in your own world. You’ve got to be able to ask for help and receive help and just have conversations.”