So, how about that Calvin Ridley deal? Most of you are cool with the Patriots getting outbid. On the surface, I get that. He's not a high-end No. 1 receiver. At best, he's on the low-end side of that scale or a damn good #2. Paying Ridley what amounts to the 10th-best wide receiver contract (average annual value-wise) seems a bit foolhardy, but ... hear me out.
In the coming weeks and months, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins (probably) will get new deals or extensions that will most certainly eclipse Ridley's deal. If Brandon Aiyuk gets traded, I would suspect he, too, will get a massive raise. Amon-Ra St. Brown is eligible for an enormous boost. These are how the economics of the game work. The salary cap increases - this year, obscenely so - and therefore, what was a seemingly unthinkable deal in the moment is quickly forgotten. Does anyone remember what Christian Kirk got a couple of years ago? Mere chump change in 2024.
I understand Ridley's a different case study because of his age, but the way his contract is structured, it's basically two years for $50 million. That's doable, even if you start throwing the Massachusetts millionaire tax at me. Seriously, what's another five million? Six? Eight? He isn't Nelson Agholor (who got $22 million guaranteed). Or Jonnu Smith. He's also not Chase, Jefferson, or Lamb. This markup is the suck tax you pay for being 4-13, for being a team that hasn't drafted nearly well enough or developed. Because when you're all of that, you aren't a destination; even if you put a healthy offer on the table, you have to tack on millions more to make up the number of differences.
Look, there's a ton of time left before the Pats have to field a team and play a game in anger. There are multiple waves of free agency, maybe another disgruntled player or two to ask for a trade, and the NFL Draft, where the organization is well-armed with three picks in the top 68 (again, the price for sucking). Expect them to take a receiver with one of those selections (I had one assistant GM tell me he believes 18 WRs will come off the board in the top 100 picks) to pair him with the young quarterback that likely comes from the 3rd overall pick. I wouldn't be surprised if they double-dip and take another pass catcher on the third day of the draft. That the old regime couldn't pick wide receivers certainly is concerning - many of those evaluators remain - but perhaps Pop Douglas is a sign that the worm is turning. Either way, as of the writing of this column, that wide receiver room is still in the bottom five in the league, and that's no way to support what you hope is your franchise QB.
That doesn't mean this is all bad. Bill Belichick would have rather lit himself on fire than offer that kind of money for a wide receiver. It never would have happened. The Wolfpack is telling you they get the NFL world, which has changed, and this position needs far more attention than the previous regime would have given it. Eventually, they'll have to land one, but the messaging is different now, and that's encouraging.
One last thing - I don't expect the Pats to trade for Aiyuk or Tee Higgins and then reward them with a mega-deal. Overpaying a receiver in free agency is one thing, but dealing significant draft capital and throwing gobs of money at the player seems to run counter to how Eliot Wolf was raised.
TROUBLE WITH THE TAG
The Pats slapped Kyle Dugger with the transition tag. This surprised many of us, as it's only been used five times in the last 15 years. It also surprised Dugger and his representation. They had no idea any sort of tag was forthcoming. I would go so far as to say it was unwelcome, and I can't blame them.
Yes, $13.8 million is a lot of money for a player Dugger's caliber, and, based on how crowded the safety market got, the Pats may be overpaying for his skillset (don't cry for them, they can afford it). But it restricts Dugger's market - the Pats have seven days to match it - and the league-wide feeling is that he's unlikely to get a multi-year offer that the Pats would turn their nose up at. Will that lead to hard feelings? It's certainly something I'll be monitoring in the weeks and months to come.
WOLF OF ONE PATRIOT PLACE
While Eliot Wolf may not have landed his most significant free agent fish from outside the organization (Ridley), he did get the player he could least afford to lose internally, Mike Onwenu. Even though my boss, Gregory Bedard, thinks it was a little rich, he and I both agree that keeping their 2nd best offensive lineman (David Andrews being the best) and one capable of playing multiple positions was necessary for the stability of that unit and making sure you don't have another year like the last one, rolling out the likes of Vederian Lowe (not his fault), a weakened Calvin Anderson and a not-ready-for-primetime Atonio Mafi.
As for the guard versus tackle conundrum, I sense that Onwenu knows he's the right tackle at the moment. That could change via free agency (although not likely. I'm not seeing Tyron Smith in Foxborough - keep an eye on the Jets - and Jonah Williams signed with Arizona) or the draft. Still, the Patriots have the mindset that they want their five best linemen out there (it's becoming a thing league-wide), in whatever form that could be, and Big Mike understands that. I appreciate how the 26-year-old has handled his business this past year. The contract and respect that comes with it says the Pats appreciate it, too.
MAC'S NEXT CHAPTER
The Jaguars officially welcomed Mac Jones to town Thursday. The ex-Pat called his trade a "mutual parting of ways," which, of course, is not accurate. Jones was no longer wanted by the team that drafted him in the first round three years ago, and while he's undoubtedly happy to be out of here, he had a zero-point-zero chance of being on the Pats roster next season.
"I have all the respect in the world for those guys up there," said Jones. "They're my first team - they drafted me in the first round; I can't thank them enough."
After a promising rookie year, Jones scuffled mightily his final two seasons in New England. He needed this change, albeit in a place where he's merely a backup. While he tried to say all the right things as he spoke to the Jacksonville media, it was hard not to notice a subtle dig at his former home.
"I don't have regrets. I feel like I put everything out there and gave a lot to that organization, and they gave a lot to me. I'm going to do the same here, in a good way," he said. "I'm going to be myself, be Mac. Learn from Trevor (Lawrence), CJ (Beathard), and the coaches here that have a lot of offensive background. That'll be important for me, and that's why I feel like it's a good fit."
Later, Jones said it would be great to have a former quarterback, Doug Pederson, as a head coach, noting that Pederson knows what it's like to be sacked and find yourself looking up at the sky. I'm not saying he's wrong, but I'm noting that this is a wound that won't heal anytime soon — if at all. I wish Mac well.
BEST MOVES ELSEWHERE
- The Lions trading for Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis. The cost was a third-round pick, a small price to pay for a player who immediately becomes the best cornerback on the loaded Detroit roster. I understand the Lions spoke with the Chiefs about L'Jarius Sneed, but the cost was prohibitive (1st round pick). Davis isn't Sneed, but he's a good consolation prize. "Man, you about to get a lockdown corner," said Davis Wednesday. "You about to have one side just, like, unavailable. That's what I do. I'm here to take the No. 1 receiver on any team. I'm here to deny the ball; I'm here to take the ball away." It's safe to say Davis, who has a ring from his days in Tampa, isn't lacking confidence.
- Everything that the Texans have done. Getting the best pass rusher, Danielle Hunter, on a two-year (!!) deal to pair with last year's DROY Will Anderson is beautiful. Denico Autry is also a tremendous addition to the defensive line, a Mike Vrabel favorite from his days in Tennessee. LB Azeez Al-Shaair played under DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco and is a rangy, sideline-to-sideline player. Trading a 7th rounder for Joe Mixon, who still has juice in his legs. And, of course, re-upping TE Dalton Schultz. Houston has become a destination, and you can bet C.J. Stroud has much to do with that.
- The Eagles signing the trio of Bryce Huff, Saquon Barkley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Huff has been among the best edge rushers in football over the last three years. He's 3rd in pass rush pressure rate for players with over 600 snaps (Josh Uche is fifth, by the way). Huff's never been an every-down player and certainly benefited from Quinnen Williams being on the interior, but it's not as if the Eagles are lean on the defensive line. His addition also allows them to continue to shop one or both of the Haason Reddick/Josh Sweat combo. In Barkley, Philly is hoping they have their version of Christian McCaffrey. And Gardner-Johnson upgrades a part of the roster that was lacking a year ago.
- The Commanders are making sure new head coach, Dan Quinn, has what he needs to make that defense high-end. I'm a big fan of Dorrance Armstrong, who was second on the Cowboys in sacks each of the last two years. LB Frankie Luvu is a dawg, and I suspect Quinn will tap into his pass-rushing skills. He could be poised for a monster year in that system. Throw in a flyer on Jeremy Chinn (think Kyle Dugger, but injury-plagued) and inking brainiac Bobby Wagner, and you can see the formula. They're giving the offense a chance to get its feet underneath them, with likely a rookie QB under center.
LOSERS
- I don't know what the hell the Jaguars are doing. They screwed up the Josh Allen negotiations for over a year, resulting in the Franchise tag. That allowed Ridley to duck the WR tag, which holds a significantly lower AAV than he got on the open market. They paid big money for Gabe Davis, who never reached the heights the Bills thought he was capable of, and I'm not sure what the ceiling is there (he's still not a great route runner). Oh, and they cut their best corner (Darious Williams). Boo. Then, out of nowhere, they pay Arik Armstead, whom SF cut. I'm sure Allen is like, 'How about you give me some of that money?' GM Trent Baalke is not awesome at his job.
- The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins and Hunter, two of their three best players. So, while I liked doling out sizeable deals to Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, they're likely starting Sam Darnold at quarterback. How will that affect the Justin Jefferson negotiations (I'd legitimately think about trading him)?
- I'm also unsure what Pittsburgh is up to. I'm not a believer in Russell Wilson. He's going to compete with Kenny Pickett for the job. Meh. The new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, wants his quarterbacks to attack the middle of the field. No signal-caller did it less than Wilson. The fit is odd. They dealt grumpy WR Diontae Johnson (the Pats should have been in on that) to Carolina in a salary swap for CB Donte Jackson. They gave Patrick Queen, a big bag (3 years/$41 mil). That's about it so far.