The year before Eliot Wolf's father, Ron, got to work resuscitating the moribund Packers, the team was 4-12 in 1991 before a coaching change and organizational shift.
After Ted Thompson's first season, the protege of Ron Wolf and mentor to Eliot, the Packers went 4-12 and changed coaches.
Now, Eliot Wolf finally gets his shot running an NFL team ... after a 4-13 season that saw Bill Belichick separated from the Patriots.
Ron Wolf's Packers went from 4-12 to 9-7 and making six-straight playoff appearances (one Super Bowl title).
Thompson's Packers went from 4-12 to 8-8 and 13-3, when they were a play away from playing the 2007 Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Packers went to the playoffs nine of 10 years at one point (one Super Bowl title).
Interestingly enough, Brian Gutekunst, another Wolf/Thompson disciple who got the Packers GM job over Wolf, went 6-9-1 his first season, fired the coach and went 39-10 the next three seasons.
Could lightning strike a fourth time as Eliot Wolf sets out to rebuild the Patriots as free agency opens today at Noon? The Patriots would be so lucky.
The most interesting question: How are they going to do it?
Certainly Wolf has had different experiences, from learning from his dad, being one of Thompson's trusted aides, going with John Dorsey (another Wolf protege) to Cleveland and learning from Belichick the previous four seasons. Wolf is going to be his own man.
But the chances are pretty strong that he's going to follow in the same footsteps as former general managers who were steeped in The Packer Way. Actually, we should stop calling it that (although Ron Wolf wrote a book with that title). It's The Ron Wolf Way.
If the son is anything like the old man — and if he's truly free to do it his own way with top aide Alonzo Highsmith without ownership/organizational interference, expect the Patriots to rebuild this slowly and steadily. In my years being around and speaking to those in that personnel tree, there are several key components to how they do thing.
Before we get into the latest depth chart, needs list and names to watch for the Patriots in free agency, let's lay out some of the tenets.
1. Identify what needs to be fixed, then go fix it.
This pertains a great deal to the state of the current Patriots. Internally, they know it's a mess and the team has a bunch of needs. I'm sure I'm being conservative when I have 16 on my list — to say nothing about the horrendous contractual setup (too many guys up the same year in similar spots, like defensive line and linebacker) that would never happen with the Packers.
In my experience covering the Packers starting in 2007, a year after Thompson started his rebuild, that team was nearly entirely homegrown – and young. The 2007 Packers were the NFL's youngest team for the second straight season, and 40 of the 53 active roster players at the end of the season were acquired by Thompson in just three years.
The only two free agents were Charles Woodson, who signed very late and reluctantly took Green Bay's offer because he had scared off others, and DT Ryan Pickett, who was a mid-level type guy. The rest were draft picks, undrafted free agents and unearthed gems from other teams through waivers and trades.
RB Ryan Grant was wasting on the Giants' bench until Highsmith found him for a sixth-round pick. Free agents S Atari Bigby and TE Donald Lee were cheap and became starters while DE Jason Hunter and CB Tramon Williams would come into their own in short order.
The Patriots know they have a ton of holes to plug. I think they are much more likely to sign a bunch of mid-level players to plug them in advance of the draft, to allow them to ...
2. Take the best player available, regardless of position, with emphasis on height/weight/speed.
From what I understand, the Patriots have not made a decision on the draft QBs and that might not happen for a while. It would be totally Wolf-like for the Patriots to leave themselves open for any and all possibilities at No. 3 - including trading down. That only happens if they plug most of the holes in free agency.
3. Rebuild from within.
Ron Wolf insisted on a home-grown roster, and that continued for years after him.
Currently (in 2016 - the final year of eight-straight playoff appearances), despite a roster ravaged by injuries, only five players on Green Bay’s two-deep ever appeared in a game with another team (OLB Julius Peppers, DL Letroy Guion, TE Jared Cook, P Jacob Schum and recently signed RB Christine Michael). Last year Press Gazette Media crunched the numbers to find that between 2005 and ’15, Thompson drafted 104 players, and Green Bay led the NFL with 1,860 starts and 3,267 games played from players it had drafted—119 more starts and 106 more games played by such players than any other NFL team. “We discovered early on that it was better to keep your own than get somebody else’s,” Wolf says. “You know truly what you have when you’re playing your own.”
That the Patriots seem to be taking a keen interest in retaining their core players/free agents (Kyle Dugger, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne so far with perhaps more in the coming days) should not be a surprise. It's the norm.
Free agency is something to be used infrequently, especially when you think you're "close."
"In the months following the 1992 season [when the Packers went 9-7 and barely missed a playoff appearance], we probably could've rushed to cash in on our early success by signing a bunch of older, limited players in hopes we could challenge for the Central Division title," Wolf wrote in his book. "But that approach contradicts our organizational philosophy. ... we weren't about to add too many Band-Aids to our roster. Instead, those spots needed to be filled by younger players who could develop into Packer stars. We would pursue a division title - but only by staying within the context of the structure we had established for roster development."
4. You can never have too many QBs.
Wolf’s most notable stamp on modern scouting is his view on quarterbacks: While there’s only room for one starter, you can never acquire too many. In Wolf’s world, it is worthwhile to draft a QB every year, no matter the current roster situation. “Looking now from afar, the best quarterback in the game is a sixth-round draft choice [Tom Brady], and that should alert everybody,” Wolf says. “Then you look at what the Cowboys have accomplished with a fourth-round draft choice. I mean, it tells you what you should do. Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it.”
Consider that in seven out of eight drafts from 1992 to ’99, Wolf drafted a quarterback, even after Brett Favre was entrenched as the starter. “I learned very early in this game, if you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have a chance,” Wolf said. “We were very lucky that we had a unique quarterback that never missed a game. But that didn’t stop me from drafting in late rounds. It’s the premiere position, and you better be able to cover yourself.”
I would not be surprised if the Patriots signed two free agents on Monday (more along the lines of Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco) and drafted two QBs in, especially if they trade down from 3. I was there in 2008, when Rodgers was going into his first season as the starter, when Thompson drafted Brian Brohm (bust) in the second round, and Matt Flynn (decent) in the seventh to be Rodgers' only backups.
5. Draft and develop your offensive weapons.
The biggest playmakers for Thompson's Packers were Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. They were all homegrown.
The 2007 Packers' backfield was: rookies Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn and FB Korey Hall (first team since 1996 to start a game with two rookie RBs). FB John Kuhn and Ryan Grant were in their second season. Vernand Morency was a late-round camp trade in his second season.
Can't tell you how many fans complained about Thompson not adding weapons for Favre and then Rodgers. They literally ignore the noise.
The current Packers traded Davante Adams and rebuilt, painfully at times, with draft picks Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Tontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave who are now coming into their own like the 07 group.
6. Don't overpay on the interior offensive line.
Ron Wolf always thought you could find guards. Thompson was similar. One of the first things he did after arriving was to let go of guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, which enraged Favre. The center was gone the year after. Thompson drafted future guard starters Daryn Colledge (second round), Jason Spitz (third) and developed center Scott Wells. The '07 line, with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher at the tackles, was all homegrown.
I'll be interested to see what the Patriots ultimately do with Mike Onwenu. Good player but will son follow the father? It could be a good litmus test on how much Eliot Wolf is his own new, modern man. A compensatory pick (more than a few of them if Josh Uche also departs, someone signs Trent Brown and the Patriots don't sign similar level free agents) could be tempting in this rebuild.
7. (This is a bonus just for me) Don't give up roster spots for special teams only players.
Found this quote from Ron Wolf somewhere:
"They’ve got 69 guys now on a roster that you can pull from to put in a game. And they can’t have three quarterbacks. Are you kidding me? For some guy that runs down on punt coverage four or five times vs. protecting yourself at that position? I don’t understand that."
Hallelujah.
PATRIOTS DEPTH CHART
NEEDS LIST
DRAFT PICKS
ODDS AND ENDS
- I know there are a lot of rumors out there about the Patriots and Calvin Ridley, but that would be totally against The Packer Way. And wouldn't this be another Christian Kirk signing ... for what QB? Sometimes the teams with the most cap space are leaked as suitors to get the price up. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.
- I really want to rebuild the receivers in the draft, which would be helped by a trade down from No. 3. But I would rather take a peek at some receivers via trade. Broncos' Courtland Sutton would only cost $13.5 million for the next two years (might look cheap next to Ridley's deal) - perfect timing as a bridge and maybe more. Love Sutton. Chargers' Mike Williams has a roster bonus due on March 16th, so he might get cut. He's $17 million in cash right now but a lot of injuries.
- For me, I'd rank the QBs this way: Brissett, Minshew, Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor and Flacco.
- I would check in via, especially on Sam Howell (he'd be a much better fit as a Walmart Baker Mayfield in this scheme than lead-footed Davis Mills). I'm now somewhat open to the Justin Fields trade if it's a conditional 4th/5th but only if Alex Van Pelt is comfortable with him in the system. I'm not picking up his fifth-year option. If he hits and walks after I draft a QB, I'll take the compensatory pick back - or think about a tag and trade.
- I would monitor Justin Simmons at free safety.
- Former Browns to monitor with so many coaches from there: DE Za'Darius Smith, TE Harrison Bryant, RB Kareem Hunt, LT Geron Christian, WR James Proche, DT Shelby Harris. Nick Chubb if he's a cap casualty.
- I would be interested in Tyron Smith plugging LT for a year at a good price.
- Other names that have caught my eye: RB AJ Dillon, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Tyler Boyd, WR Michael Gallup (if CC), WR Josh Reynolds, WR Tim Patrick (if CC), WR Jauan Jennings (RFA), OT Jonah Williams, OT Mekhi Becton, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Grover Stewart, LB Andrew Van Ginkel, CB Xavien Howard, S Kam Curl, CB Kenny Moore, CB Stephon Gilmore, OT Oli Udoh.
- If Wolf was going to get bold, these would be the names to watch: DE Danielle Hunter, DE Bryce Huff, DE Jonathan Greenard.
- Patriots free agents I would like to see back: Myles Bryant, Anfernee Jennings, Pharoah Brown, Jalen Reagor, Mack Wilson.
- Monitoring the price tag: Mike Onwenu.
- Time to get younger/better: Trent Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Gesicki, Reilly Reiff, Cody Davis.