Brayan Bello is here to stay.
Until 2030, at least…
The Boston Red Sox have successfully extended their prized young right-hander on a contract that appears to be exceedingly team-friendly. Bello’s deal was made official by the team on Thursday night, and he will be made available to reporters on Saturday in his native Dominican Republic where the Red Sox are facing the Tampa Bay Rays in the spring Dominican Republic Series.
Red Sox born & raised. pic.twitter.com/gzQodZjDUg
— Red Sox (@RedSox) March 7, 2024
What was originally thought to be a five-year extension for $50 million actually turned out to be a six-year pact for $55 million. And with a seventh-year club option, the deal could be worth as much as $76 million.
Right-hander Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a six-year, $55 million contract extension that includes a seventh-year club option for $21 million, sources tell ESPN.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) March 7, 2024
The Sox lock up the 24-year-old into the 2030s.
To lock down a pitcher of Bello’s potential to a deal with an average annual value between approximately $9.2 and $10.9 million is nothing short of a heist by Craig Breslow and the Red Sox's front office. Not only is this the best move of Breslow’s tenure by far, but it also has the potential to be the best move Breslow will ever make in Boston...
It’s what I would call a rare double-win deal. If Bello pans out as Pedro Martinez 2.0, then paying an elite starter in the neighborhood of $10 million per year in today’s market is a full-on heist. Not to mention you’d be getting the age 24 through 30 or 31 seasons from Bello, likely to be physical peak.
But let’s say Bello doesn’t pan out and is just an average to above-average pitcher. Or heck, even a below-average pitcher. A $10 million annual hit — mind you, the Red Sox just paid Corey Kluber $10 million for his lackluster 2023 season — is not going to break the bank and put the Sox in a financial bind.
It’s a true win-win, in my book.
The team obviously thinks very highly of the 24-year-old Bello, and for good reason. His first full big league season showed marked improvement across the board, including an innings pitched increase of nearly 100 (157) from his debut season total of 57 1/3 innings thrown.
Bello’s ERA and WHIP dropped from 4.71 and 1.779 across 13 games in 2022 to 4.24 and 1.338 respectively in 28 games and starts last season. He struck out 132 in 2023 — 77 more than his first season — and saw his average strikeouts per appearance increase to 4.7 from 4.2. Even his walks allowed per game decreased, dipping to an average of 1.6 from 2.1.
Their high valuation of Bello is also evident considering the company they’ve put Bello in with this extension.
As @alexspeier noted, the Bello deal just clears the Hunter Greene extension. Bello’s deal is actually the second biggest pre-arb pitcher extension of all-time, behind Spencer Strider.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) March 7, 2024
Bello’s extension tops that of Cincinnati Reds phenom Hunter Greene by $2 million. Greene last April reportedly signed a six-year, $53 million extension that includes a $21 million option for 2029 and could be worth as much as $96.2 million with incentives.
To get Bello signed for a similar timeframe for potential $20 million less is eye-opening. We’re talking about a pitcher in Greene who is a former No. 2 overall draft pick and redefined the term “flamethrower” by throwing a 105.2 mph fastball, tied for the fastest ever in the Statcast era.
That the Red Sox believe Bello is in the same category — if not even better — is high praise, to say the least.
Bello is far from a finish product, and his development could still go either way for the Red Sox. His numbers this spring have been solid, pitching to a 3.60 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in two outings. He gave up a pair of runs on one hit and a walk while striking out two in a three-inning start against Washington last Saturday.
It isn’t realistic to expect Bello to make a Cy Young-esque jump this year in his soon-to-be age 25 season. So what would be realistic expectations for Bello this season? I would be encouraged to see Bello get his ERA below 4.00 and keep bumping up his innings and strikeout numbers into the 170s range. Wins are likely going to be hard to come by this season, so another year like last — despite the Sox’s ineptitude, Bello actually posted a winning record at 12-11 — could be in the cards.
Who knows? Maybe Bello progresses faster than anticipated — hey, Pedro made his first All-Star game as a 24-year-old and won his first Cy Young Award in his age 25 season. Realistically, I wouldn’t anticipate Bello taking his star turn until at least the 2025 campaign.
But whenever that day does come, we can be assured it will come at a good value thanks to the shrewd work of Breslow.
Maybe he is the smartest guy in the room, after all…
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.