Before you can even talk about the Patriots and what they might do with the third overall pick, we have free agency, which starts with the tampering period at 12:00 p.m. Monday.
Unless the Patriots and Eliot Wolf have some wild super-secret plan we don't know about, we should have a fairly good idea of how they feel about the draft QBs depending on what they do in free agency.
If they swing big with a Kirk Cousins or a Baker Mayfield, they're not crazy about the top-of-the-draft QBs and will likely be looking to trade out.
If the Patriots go with any other plan at QB — Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, trade for Justin Fields or Sam Howell (if Washington goes QB at 2) — then that's a pretty good tipoff they like the top 3 QBs, or have their eye on someone in the second tier in the case of a trade down.
And the evaluation of Drake Maye — by the Patriots and the NFL — will be the key to everything.
I've watched at least some film at this point on the top six quarterbacks in this draft. There is much more work to do in April after free agency on these QBs, but the Patriots have to have a very good idea on these guys before they get to the draft. So we have to have a clue as well.
Like all evaluators, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but to me, it's very clear that Caleb Williams is the No. 1 QB in this class. You can make whatever comments you want to make about him off the field and his makeup - all that stuff, and it's not unimportant at that position. But he does it all. There's nothing he can't do on a football field, and that puts Williams in his own tier at the top.
Jayden Daniels, on film, is clearly No. 2. His deep passing is elite. His running ability is elite. He's like Lamar Jackson but as a better natural passer. His throwing mechanics are perfect and repeatable. Now, he hasn't been measured yet - which is a big worry and there is much to evaluate there in terms of him playing in the Northeast. But if you're OK with all that stuff, Daniels is the second tier by himself.
And that leads us to Maye. I think he'll be polarizing for teams, and you've heard some of that from evaluators that I trust enough to hear them out.
Here's a sampling:
Chris Simms: "Talented project. There are things you watch and you go, 'Wow!' ... But for everyone of those throws, there's five where you go, 'What the hell is that throw?' There's no way evaluators, coaches, QB coaches are going to be able to get behind and say he's ready to go, he should be the No. 2 or 3 pick of the draft. No way. There's too many things that need to be fixed."
Bob McGinn's scout comments at Go Long!: He’s No. 3 (on the list) but I haven’t seen much improvement,” one scout said. “He really didn’t raise the level of that program. That last game, I’ve never seen a quarterback who’s supposed to be a top guy have absolutely no answers for a team (North Carolina State). I always had concerns that he couldn’t raise his level, but that just cemented it. He shrunk under just the pressure and the gravity of what was going on around him. He’s got an arm. He can move around. But everything is just flashes. Nothing is consistent. It’s all flashes. Doesn’t have a very good feel for the game. There’s a little bit of Drew Lock in him.” His athletic ability and stature brought up memories of John Elway for another scout. “He can flick the ball the length of the field,” he said. “Has accuracy in and out of the pocket. This was not a good team. He had a lot of pressure on him most games. He was the whole team.” Didn’t work out at the combine. Hands were 9 1/8. “He’s only started two years,” said a third scout. “He’s still growing. They don’t drill fundamentals at all. But he’s big, good enough arm, smart, really accurate. I don’t know he’s going to be dynamic but guys like him win Super Bowls. He’s a pocket passer but he’s not a statue. I don’t think he’s Tom Brady but he’s in the Tom Brady church as far as style of player. You’re not going to miss on the kid, either. Super competitive family. Youngest of four brothers, all of whom were college athletes. Kid knows how to work.”
Greg Cosell: "You're dealing with a guy that has tremendous talent, great physical traits. But there's a lot of detail and nuance that he needs to clean up. The other thing that is a little concerning, I thought his inconsistent and erratic ball placement could well be a problem.
Mike Sando: Five of six execs had Daniels heading to Washington in this slot. One of the five initially had Maye, then changed to Daniels a few days later. “I think people struggle with Maye’s mechanics,” this exec said. ...
Every exec had the Patriots selecting a quarterback in the first round. Maye was the choice more by default than because anyone thought New England was particularly high on him.
“I think they would probably rather have Jayden Daniels, but I’ll put Maye in there,” one exec said.
One GM whose team already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy would be “a huge reach” in this spot, but he conceded New England could make a bold selection with Eliot Wolf running the draft room.
“I think they go quarterback,” this GM said. “Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot won’t be afraid to if he believes in the player. Just look at what his dad has done.”
Ron Wolf famously acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three decades ago.
“Ron Wolf’s son is going to go for the biggest, fastest, most talented athlete in most cases,” a different exec said.
Dan Orlovsky: “If New England wants to take Drake Maye at [third overall], they better have a free agent [quarterback] already signed. Drake Maye has to be on the Jordan Love-type of timeline. Drake Maye has to sit.”
“I’ll give the one reason why. His feet are too sloppy, and too all over the place.”
“If you go into the NFL and, mechanically, your feet are sloppy — and you don’t fix it — you’re going to struggle. You might get away with it here and there, but you’re going to struggle. I’ve watched Josh Allen fix it, I’ve watched Patrick Mahomes do it, I’ve watched Lamar Jackson do it. They all have to.”
“Drake Maye is an amazing talent. I love his Pittsburgh game. He’s the difference in the game. He makes some big time plays down the field. He controls the line of scrimmage with protection, ball comes out on-time, drops that back leg and rips it.”
“And then I see some plays, like, ‘Hey man, you can get away with that against Pitt on that deep crosser vs. man coverage, but you’re not going to survive a long time in the NFL like that.'”
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I'm in the same camp as Simms, Cosell and Orlovsky when it comes to Maye.
There's a ton to really like about him. The whole package physically is great. He's big and sturdy. The arm is there. Can make throws on the run and rip the ball to all parts of the field. He comes from a very athletic family, so you expect him to have elite makeup. Has the ability to make plays with his feet. Hands are a little small for his size, but just as a physical quarterback ... he's how you draw it up.
However, he is very unrefined as a passer at this point. His throwing motion is a bit long and not natural. His footwork borders on awful at times and he drifts in the pocket, which invites more pressure and sacks. He does not throw with good anticipation. At this point, he's not great at reading the play and the defense from the pocket.
To me, he very clearly needs to sit at least for a year. He's a very talented project. You could make the Jordan Love comparison as Orlovsky did. But are you taking a QB third overall and being content to sit him for two years? No way. This is where the evaluation comes in. All it takes is for one hardo coach — could be Alex Van Pelt or Ben McAdoo — to say, "I can fix that kid by the end of his first season. He'll start Year 2 at the latest." And they could absolutely be right. In that case, I might entertain Maye at 3 this year. The potential total package could be too tempting to pass up.
The Patriots just have to have a plan and stick to it, unlike the Jaguars when they took Blake Bortles third overall in the 2014 draft. I think Maye has a higher ceiling than Bortles at this point, but they are very raw prospects. Great physical tools but needed a lot of work. You could read my pre-draft analysis of Bortles, substitute in Maye for Bortles, and you have the exact same report.
The Jaguars and then-GM Dave Caldwell shocked the world taking Bortles at 3 in that draft. But I was very encouraged that the Jaguars said the plan was to sit Bortles his rookie season behind Chad Henne. That was the ideal plan.
Of course, the Jaguars started 0-3, Bortles started Week 4 and went 3-11 in his starts. And Bortles, despite reaching an AFC championship game, never came close to reaching his potential because his development was rushed and he was out of the league after Year 6.
The Patriots absolutely can't do that, if they pick Maye third overall. If I were the Patriots, I'd be praying the Commanders take Maye second, and hope that Daniels falls to 3 and either making that pick or raffling it off to the highest bidder.
All I know is the evaluations of Maye will be fascinating, but the post-draft plan and execution will be most vital to his and his drafting team's long-term success.
