One step forward, two steps back…
Lucas Giolito’s redemption tour has been postponed indefinitely after the Boston Red Sox reportedly received devastating news on Tuesday that the former All-Star right-hander could miss the entirety of the 2024 season with a torn UCL and flexor strain.
Brutal news: Initial imaging showed Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss the 2024 season, league sources tell ESPN. Giolito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston, may need surgery to repair the right-elbow damage.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 5, 2024
“Really tough -- tough for us, tough for Lucas,” Sox CBO Craig Breslow said to reporters. “He’s a guy that takes a lot of pride in his ability to post and that was certainly something that was attractive to us. Obviously, I don’t want to speak until we know exactly what we’re dealing with, but I know he’s frustrated and wants to take the ball on Opening Day. So we’ll evaluate where we are and figure out what the best path forward is.”
The surprising news carries both short and long-term ramifications for the Red Sox.
The 29-year-old’s injury creates an even bigger void in a starting rotation that has yet to be finalized. Giolito, young phenom Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta were the only starters locked in, with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski competing for the final two spots.
Mind you, this is all taking place as recent Sox sell-off Chris Sale looks poised for a dominant debut season in Atlanta…
The Red Sox are paying Chris Sale and Lucas Giolito $36M a year to (likely) not pitch for their team in 2024. pic.twitter.com/L0OoDv7c6j
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) March 5, 2024
Crawford began the spring with a leg up on the competition according to Alex Cora, so if we’re counting Crawford as a confirmed starter with Giolito now out of the mix, we’re back to two spots to be had between Whitlock, Houck and Winckowski.
Of course, the reportedly “widely expected” signing of a certain free agent pitcher could shift the picture yet again…
It would appear the Sox need Jordan Montgomery more than ever now that they’re down a key member of their rotation. While it makes plenty of sense on paper, the situation surrounding Montgomery’s potential addition to the roster is different now than it was following Giolito’s signing in early January.
A Montgomery signing with a healthy Giolito would have given the team a serviceable rotation of veteran starters including Pivetta to balance out the younger and more inexperienced Bello and whoever would have won the No. 5 spot.
Yet bringing in Montgomery now without Giolito would be somewhat of a lateral move — even if Montgomery was able to put together a career year. And given that the left-hander and zero-time All-Star has never won more than 10 games in a single season, it was unlikely he was going to have a Cy Young-caliber year to carry the weight of two starters.
There’s a reason why the old adage says that you can never have too much pitcher — and this is why. Injuries are going to happen, and teams have to plan for that. As continues to be the case today under Breslow as it was under Chaim Bloom, these Red Sox have been building rosters that rely heavily on every player performing at near 100 percent of their capability. That rarely, if ever, happens in the course of any given season in any sport…
Then there’s the “buy in” factor from ownership, which hasn’t been particularly keen on investing in this current iteration of the Red Sox. Does the loss of their “prized” free agent this winter make it more or less likely that John Henry and Tom Werner turn around and spend more money — only to effectively put the team right back where they started from a talent (deficit) perspective? Any informed observer would speculate it is likely to be the latter…
In the long term, it’s possible that Giolito’s Sox career is over before it even began. He is scheduled to receive an $18 million salary in 2024, but he is able to opt out after this season at the cost of a $1 million team buyout. If he doesn't, Giolito is owed $19 million for 2025 and has a conditional option for 2026.
One would imagine that Giolito won’t be in a rush to put himself back on the market now that he carries a “damaged goods” designation, and the Sox love good value and could treat Giolito like a James Paxton-type reclamation project. Though the $1 million buyout for 2025 gives the Sox some nice flexibility if they ever did want to position themselves to spend big again…
And last but not least, from a personal standpoint, this is a disappointing development for a player in Giolito who is well-liked and seems easy to root for. He was looking forward to giving his all for Red Sox fans every fifth day.
“I will work my ass off to do everything I can to provide the organization I’m playing for and therefore the fanbase the best version of myself,” Giolito said in his introductory press conference. "I’m here. I’m ready to get to work.”
Here’s hoping we’ll still get the chance to see Giolito pitch in a Red Sox uniform in the near future. He’s certainly deserving of that opportunity.
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.