I have no idea if Eliot Wolf is the right person to lead the Patriots in this post-Belichick era. Ditto for Jerod Mayo. How could we? There is no track record or fact-based evidence that will cause us to lean in one direction. But if his public proclamations are any indication, Wolf understands you don't win in this league with an average quarterback, like the old regime thought they could do. No, his outlook and approach to that position may well determine how long (or short) his position of power will last.
"I think when you look throughout the league, most of the quarterbacks are first-rounders," said Wolf earlier this week. "I think there's exceptions to be had, like you know, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy. Tom Brady. But I think just the league-wide understanding of how important that position is, and how important it is to have somebody there that can help you, you know, win games and get over the hump has changed league-wide."
Thank you. The position has evolved. The best teams have playmakers playing QB for them; the best in the AFC have playmaking freaks. Patrick Mahomes in KC (best in the world). Josh Allen in Buffalo (arguably the 2nd best). 2-time MVP Lamar Jackson in Baltimore (I know. He needs playoff success. I'd still take him 100 times out of 100). Even Joe Burrow has figured out when to pick his spots and slay a defense with his mobility. And when I say mobility, that isn't just about running for first downs but also operating deftly within the pocket and winning that way as well (two straight AFC title games and one Super Bowl before the wrist derailed him this season).
The good news is that this draft's top tier of QBs all have shown they can do that, at least at the college level. Caleb Williams survived behind a wretched offensive line this season after winning the Heisman the year before. Drake Maye had even less offensive talent around him, but his 42 first-down rushes on 3rd/4th downs over the last two years. That laps the field, including Jayden Daniels (22), who won the Heisman this year, playing with the best skill group of this trio by far.
Do you know who else falls into this group? Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy. Now, they aren't considered in the same class as the top 3, although McCarthy - as we told you a couple weeks ago - is climbing and could continue that momentum by showing out at the combine.
"I think it's a really good year for quarterbacks. ... And you know, one thing about the quarterbacks in this draft specifically that I'm excited about is they all look like they're really tough guys, which, you know, is obviously great at any position but the quarterback position, especially," Wolf said.
On the field, this class all qualifies in that harder-to-define category, at least in terms of the on-the-field part of the equation (off-the-field is harder to quantify). And you can toss Michael Penix and Spencer Rattler into that group. Rattler, in particular, got his ass kicked at South Carolina behind an offensive line that was so poor and injury-prone that they only played the same combination four times all season.
When asked what traits he was looking for, Wolf again pointed to intangibles but didn't bury the lead.
"You know, first of all, being someone that can elevate his teammates, someone that your teammates want to play for. I think that's an extremely underrated thing that people don't really talked about that much. Leadership is important and obviously, you know, physical talent. We wouldn't be talking about these guys if they weren't physically talented."
Don't lose sight of the latter - physical talent - as we power through these next two months. Nix is 24. Penix turns 24 in May. Both have spent more time in college than most top prospects. Rattler isn't a jaw-dropping athlete despite being the number one recruit coming out of high school. So, their profiles are all - fairly - lower than the Williams/Maye/Daniels/McCarthy quartet.
Botton line for me, time to think about drafting a horse instead of trying to outsmart the crowd and pick ponies.
OPEN BOOK
I loved the candor for Falcons head coach Raheem Morris this week.
"I'm not afraid to say that we have the ability to go out and win next year," said Morris. "If we do some of the right things and make some of the right moves, we can do that. If we had better quarterback play last year in Atlanta, I might not be standing here."
He's not wrong. Atlanta has desperately sought a signal caller since Matt Ryan faded, which cost both Dan Quinn (in 2020) and Arthur Smith their jobs. But it's not like the roster is devoid of talent, especially offensively, where they have three Top-10 picks (TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and RB Bijan Robinson), one of the best guards in football (Chris Lidstrom), and a pair of first-round tackles (Kaleb McGrory and Jake Matthews).
With the 8th pick in the draft, the Falcons are in a spot where they're likely on the outside looking in for the top tier of QBs. They could fall in love with a player in the next tier - say, McCarthy, for instance - or go the veteran route. They've been linked to free agent Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields. Cousins could return to Minnesota, and Wilson is likely to be released. Meanwhile, Fields' future depends on what Chicago plans to do with the first overall pick.
"There are Plan A's and Plan B's and Plan C'," said GM Terry Fontenot.
Atlanta's plan last year was to pair Desmond Ridder with Taylor Heincke. If Fontenot saddles Morris with something like that going forward, he'll likely find himself updating his resume and searching for the next landing spot.
SHIRTLESS SH** TALK
Never too soon to get the trash-talking started. Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins put the Jets in the crosshairs earlier this week. It was odd for a couple reasons. The first? Dawkins appeared on a podcast shirtless (he also showed up to the Chiefs playoff game in Buffalo sans shirt, and while I don't know why this is relevant, it feels worth mentioning). The second? The nature of the criticism.
"I hate them, all of them, bro. ... When it comes to sports, there are people that play the sport because they love the sport. And then there's people that play the sport just to try to be cool. I feel like they play the sport to try to be cool. Those are a bunch of dudes that just want to take pictures on Instagram. That's whack."
Now, as someone who is quite active on Instagram, Dawkins makes that observation seem hypocritical. In fact, most players in the league are fond of posting pictures of themselves in action or showing up to the stadium in a stylish outfit, so does that make everyone "whack?" But dammit, let's not allow that to get in the way of some good, old-fashioned hate.
The reality is this distaste bubbled over during a November game in Buffalo when Dawkins and Jets DL Michael Clemons got into a scrap in the tunnel as both teams exited the field (Buffalo has only one entrance to field level, meaning both teams are intermingling). Per Dawkins, that scrap was born from the amount of yapping Clemons was doing during the game.
"First of all, why are you talking to my quarterback? Don't talk to my quarterback," said Dawkins. "Stay over there. Don't say nothing to none of my guys. Just stay over there, son. Don't talk to 17. I'm really serious about that. Don't talk to him. Don't say nothing to him at all, right?
"What am I supposed to do? I'm the OG. I've been on this line for the longest. I'm the one that's going to punch you in your face.
"If you're going to run up on somebody, run all the way up on somebody. Don't run up and stop 5 yards behind and just start talking. So, when he did that, I'm like, 'First of all, you really don't want to fight me. You're really a b----.'
Clemons has remained silent on the issue, but teammate Sauce Gardner took to X to defend...himself, "I play this game because I love it and it takes care of my family. It also gives me a platform to inspire the youth. I have no 'NFL beef' with anybody. I didn't know that was a thing til I just watched this video."
The week leading up to their first meeting this upcoming season will be glorious.
CAP CLARITY
Every NFL team was operating this offseason as if the salary cap would be between $241 and $244 million. Then came the news that it would be a good chunk higher than that, at $254 million. That is proving to be a game-changer for a number of franchises.
"I was telling somebody earlier, Friday afternoon, I was watching film, and I get an email, and it's from the league," said Giants GM Joe Schoen. "It's the salary cap number. I opened it up, and our staff was on vacation through the weekend, so I was in there, and I'm like, 'Oh my gosh, I can't believe how much that went up.' Because we were very conservative on our estimates in terms of our plan. It's caused us—we're going to reconvene here and talk about some of those things that that you were talking about. ... It's a pleasant surprise where it ended up coming in."
"Every dollar you can get helps," said Bills GM Brandon Beane, who needs to do some capo gymnastics to get his team cap compliant. "We were conservatively planning for a number in the 240s. So to get the 255, I was smiling, yeah."
Beane added that that jump helps the current roster, "Maybe it's one less guy you've got to release or restructure."
In Denver, the Broncos went from being over $24 million over the cap to around $10 million. Cutting Wilson and being saddled with $85 mil in dead cap will never feel good, but the increase may somewhat lessen the pain.
"It impacts us," GM George Paton said. "It just provides more flexibility than we thought we had. We felt like we were going to be able to do what we needed to do. And then we got the spike, and now maybe we can do more or plan more for the future."
The teams that were well-positioned for free agency are still that but now may find some players that they expected to be on the move stay put because of the unexpected increase or find there's more competition for said players. It also may lead to some absurd contract extensions. The Vikings with Justin Jefferson would be a good candidate for such a deal. We're in for some fun starting in a couple weeks (legal tampering starts on March 11).