The franchise tag window opened at 4 p.m. Tuesday and through March 5th. The NFL has not released the final numbers, but OverTheCap.com has the following:
Out of their 17 unrestricted free agents, the Patriots have two prime tag candidates, safety Kyle Dugger and offensive lineman Michael Onwenu.
Edge Josh Uche is a fringe candidate. TE Hunter Henry would be a consideration at $12 million, but because of the way the Patriots structured his contract (and how bad it is in hindsight) Henry is subject to the 120% rule. Since his previous compensation was $15.5 million (despite a $12.5 million AAV), Henry would receive $18.6 million. That's a non-starter.
Most expect the Patriots to tag Dugger, as do I. Jerod Mayo is a defensive head coach, defense is going to have to carry the team for a while, and Dugger is a good player. Makes sense to retain Dugger.
But I don't think that's the move the Patriots should make. I think they should franchise Onwenu, even if it's at $20 million (there's no guard tag, it's just OL so that means it's an OT tag).
Here's why:
- First of all, the Patriots already have enough resources dedicated to defense. According to OTC, the Patriots have $104 million spent for 2024 on defense as of today (they could subtract $14 million when they release JC Jackson). They have spent $56 million on offense. That's a difference of $48 million and that leads the league. Only the Steelers ($46 million) are close.
- Franchise tags are often used as placeholders for a long-term contract extension, but that's a dangerous game. The agents know that if the team uses the franchise tag and the player plays it out, the team could be forced to pay them 120% if they tag the player again. That means that the first two years start at the tag and 120%.
- For Dugger, that means his starting point on an extension, unless he directs his agent to play ball with the team (like, if he wants to play for Mayo) at two years and $35.6 million guaranteed. That is $17.8 million AAV. That would rank third among safeties behind Derwin James ($19 million) and Minkah Fitzpatrick ($18.2 million). That's pretty rich for a player who hasn't even been named to a Pro Bowl and has these grades from PFF (grain of salt), which ranked him 63rd last season.
- You could make the same 120% argument against Onwenu ($43.8 million over two/$21.9 million AAV). That would put him No. 1 among all right tackles (Lane Johnson, $20.2 million) and right guards (Chris Lindstrom, $20.5 million). PFF had Onwenu rated 29th - out of position - and he has these career grades:
- Which player has a chance to be among the best players at his position? To me, it's undoubtedly Onwenu. Nevermind the fact that he'll be 26 most of this season and Dugger will be 28 in less than a month. The age also gives Onwenu a better chance to play ball on a new contract since he will likely get another chance at a big contract. This might be it for Dugger - and most players reach their potential by 28.
- The Patriots already have enough at safety if they go with Jabrill Peppers in the Dugger role full-time, Marte Mapu (possibly at free safety) and Joshuah Bledsoe, who came on last year. Plus, you could add for cheaper in free agency and/or the draft.
- You can't say the same thing about the offensive line. Without Onwenu you're looking at, as of today, LT Vederian Lowe, LG Cole Strange (when he gets back from injury) or Atonio Mafi, C David Andrews, RG Sidy Sow, RT Calvin Anderson. A rookie tackle would likely play/compete at right tackle.
If you retain Onwenu, you're looking at LT Lowe or Anderson, LG Sow/Mafi/Strange, C Andrews, RG Onwenu, RT Anderson or rookie. If a rookie is not ready, a line of LT Lowe or Anderson, LG Mafi/Strange, C Andrews, RG Sow and RT Onwenu is a start in the right direction. Sign someone like Jonah Williams (or better) for LT and you might have something that could serve as a foundation for a solid, run-first offense looking to keep a first-round pick out of harm's way.
Overall, I just think the imbalance on the team makes it more urgent to keep a potential top 5 player on the offensive line. Dugger might get to top 10 or 15 at his position, but does that really change thing for the Patriots.
I would tag Onwenu ... but I think it will be Dugger, if they use the tag at all.
