So this position begins with a simple question: Do the Pats want a true free safety under first-year defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington? Devin McCourty filled that role perfectly for a decade while also possessing the versatility to occasionally get some snaps in the box or line up over the slot. But generally, McCourty's best work was ensuring no one got over the top of the defense. He played angles exceptionally well and separated more than a few completions from wideouts and tight ends running down the seam or working from the middle of the field to the sidelines.
This past season, the Pats got by with Jabril Peppers and Kyle Dugger sharing some of that workload. Peppers did it better, but both players are much more effective playing closer to the line of scrimmage and, in Peppers' case, having the receiver in front of him and driving on the ball/player. To this day, Dugger still gets lost in space, so the notion of Franchise tagging him (as suggested elsewhere) is a non-starter to me unless the Pats can't find other ways to spend their money. Dugger played over 1100 snaps this season but had - by my grading system - a down year, the worst since his rookie campaign. If Covington wants to employ him in the box as a safety-linebacker hybrid full-time, that would be the best way to maximize Dugger's talents, as the Pats did in 2022 (his best year, by far).
This year's tag is around $16 to 17 million, and Over the Cap estimates a 4-year, $66.2-million-dollar deal for Dugger, making him the fourth highest-paid strong safety in football.
Signed: Adrian Phillips ($4.1 mil against cap/1.18 in dead cap*), Marte Mapu (1.26 cap hit), Peppers ($5.4/$3.3)
FAs: Jalen Mills, Joshuah Bledsoe, Cody Davis, Dugger.
(*if cut)
BEST FREE-AGENT FITS
1. Antoine Winfield Jr., Bucs - He's a playmaking stud, well-equipped to play deep and in the slot or the box. If Jerod Mayo/Covington are as obsessed with positional versatility as Bill Belichick was, then Winfield is a better chess piece than Dugger. He'll likely command more than Dugger on the open market and could easily get tagged by Tampa Bay if they can figure out other roster pieces (Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans). A first-team AP All-Pro at 25 years of age.
Teammates credit him for stepping up as the Bucs were floundering, asking them, "How great do you want to be?" after a loss to the Falcons in late October. It took a while for the Bucs to get right, but they took off at the end of the season, winning five of their final six games and beating Philadelphia in the playoffs.
"Everybody took it well," said Winfield when asked about it (per the Tampa Bay Times). "We're all trying to win here. We're all professionals. I just felt like it needed to be said, and I said what I said. I feel like I'm a man of a few words, but when I say something, I really mean it."
"By nature, he's not that rah-rah guy," said Winfield co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote. "But with his play, he's a leader, and he demonstrates that on a week-to-week basis."
Over the Cap projects Winfield will get Franchise tagged.
2. Xavier McKinney, Giants - Mostly a deep safety, but there's enough data that shows him more than capable if asked to play in the box. Made an impressive interception in the Giants' defeat of the Patriots this past season and is a playmaker in that regard, with three INTs, two fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble this past year. He also had his best year in coverage and rarely misses open-field tackles.
"I don't think nobody's on my level from the standpoint of being able to do every single thing on the back end," McKinney told the New York Post at the end of the season. "I think a lot of safeties have certain things that they're good at and a lot of stuff they're not good at. But with me, if you just look at my whole game and how I am, I'm able to do everything at a high level and be very productive doing it.
"I'm the most complete safety out there, and it's about time for some respect to that, too."
McKinney wants to get paid.
Over the Cap projects a three-year, $37.5-million dollar deal, with $25 mil guaranteed.
Doesn't seem like he's too loyal to the Giants.
3. Jordan Fuller, Rams - The Rams' safety isn't going to break the bank, and if the Pats want someone to stay back, he's as qualified as any free agent in his class. In Raheem Morris' defense, Fuller was asked to play a ton of two-high and did it well. He doesn't allow himself to get manipulated by the QB's eyes and rarely takes the cheese on pattern combinations designed to get him off his spot. Fuller runs well and is a sure tackler with some McCourty-like qualities in terms of being the last line of defense. The drawback here is he was rarely asked to play close to the line of scrimmage, and on those rare occasions when he did, Fuller didn't make much of an impact. Again, it's not what he does. The Rams rave about the type of person he is.
"I think he's authentically himself," Sean McVay told The Athletic this season. "I think the No. 1 thing that people feel is, are you being yourself? He's so steady, so consistent, he's refreshingly secure in who he is and what his natural personality is, but he connects with guys. This (sport) can be sometimes transactional, but he's a transformational type of person."
Fuller missed much of the 2022 season with a hamstring injury but played all 17 regular-season games this year (he missed the playoff game with an ankle injury).
Over the Cap projects two years for $9.25 million, with $6.25 guaranteed.
4. Jordan Whitehead, Jets - If the Pats want to play a ton of single-high, Whitehead might climb up this list. He's a good centerfielder and strong enough to step into the box and do that if need be. The 26-year-old had four interceptions, nine passes defensed, and 97 tackles this season for the Jets, all career-highs. Side note, he is one of many players who have crapped all over PFF's grading system, which I appreciate (coaches grades for players and PFF grades rarely marry).
"I feel like he's had a good season, obviously there's a couple of things he'll even admit he needs to get better at, but his coverage stuff has been fantastic, it's all been pretty much the same, if not better than a few years ago," Robert Saleh said. "He's been opportunistic in getting the ball…"
Whitehead isn't considered a great tackler, but he told the New York Post he's been working on it.
"For me, it's all about the kill shot," Whitehead said. "I'm not a big guy, so when I try to put all my force into him, a lot of times, I don't use my arms to wrap up. I use my shoulders. That was the big thing. That's always how I played. [Safeties coach Marquand Manuel] is always telling me, just get him down. I went back, and we watched some tape. We watched Earl Thomas. They would hit sometimes, but most of the time, they were getting run over, bringing them down. Saleh would always say, 'I know you don't want to get embarrassed, but just get them down.' That's what I've been doing."
Over the Cap projects 2 years, $12 million, $6.5 mil guaranteed.
5. Kam Curl, Commanders - The Washington secondary has been like gasoline on a campfire. But through the constant torchings, Curl has stood out, especially this past season, as he shifted to more of a free safety role. He is a very smart player and, much like Fuller, doesn't get fooled often. I have him lower on the list because he's not much of a playmaker. Curl hasn't had a single interception over the last three seasons and just one forced fumble. The tape says he should do more based on positioning and how he plays angles. But this isn't a small sample size. Made the NFL's Top 100 (Mac Jones did as well after his rookie year, FWIW). Ron Rivera was a big fan.
"He's been very solid for us, doing a lot of the good things that we ask of him and then doing more," said Rivera. "I mean, he's a terrific football player, a guy that is a veteran leader now. You see his play; it's very savvy and very timely. You see him come up with solid plays at the right time in terms of third down and making a big tackle or knocking the ball away, something like that. He's been a solid force."
Over the Cap projects the franchise tag for Curl.
BEST OF THE REST: Geno Stone (Baltimore), Julian Blackmon (Indy), Darnell Savage (Green Bay), Alohi Gilman (LA Chargers).