In light of Jerod Mayo's comments about spending and spending big, I thought I'd look at the 24 pending free agents for the Patriots and rank them from worst to first. That said - and you know from having watched this 4-13 season - there's not too many players on this list that I'd be panicked about replacing. I'm sure we'll revisit this list as we get closer to the legal tampering period. Until then...have at it.
24. Matthew Slater - Great leader and one of the last links to the decades of dominance. But it should be over. And Mayo should convince him that joining the coaching staff is a great way to begin the next chapter.
23. James Ferentz - Another guy who should call it a career and find his way onto this coaching staff as an assistant line coach. He's basically been doing that the last two years and was an invaluable resource to the young players - Sidy Sow, Atonio Mafi, Jake Andrews, and Cole Strange. I don't hate that group.
22. Riley Reiff - An unmitigated disaster and predictable based on his last two years.
21. Tre Nixon - With the way things went at wide receiver this year, he may have gotten some run. That said, I want significant changes in that room. I guess he could be a practice squad guy, but whether he stays or goes will not change the big picture.
20. Cody Davis - If he wants to return on a vet minimum contract with no or a small bag of guaranteed cash, that's fine. You need a few of those guys in camp, and maybe one of them sticks. Otherwise, thanks, and see you later.
19. Christian Elliss - was part of that breakdown that led to Marvin Mims' long return on Christmas Eve in Denver. That's the lasting on-field impression Elliss made. To acquire him, the Pats sacrificed Malik Cunningham. To update that end of it, sources in Baltimore have told me he's struggled throwing the ball.
18. Nathan Rourke - I never saw him throw a pass in New England, and like the wide receiver room, I'd like them to break up the quarterback room. But as a camp arm and third QB, I'd be willing to give him a spin.
17. Joshuah Bledsoe - He had his chance two summers ago to earn a spot but didn't do enough to get playing time. It's time to spin the dial and see if they can draft someone at safety on day three who has upside.
16. Mike Gesicki - I'm curious what, if any, guaranteed money he gets on his next deal. He was, by and large, a complete non-factor here. He's not a tight end, yet they tried to have him block at the point of attack early in the year. Midway through, he lost snaps to a journeyman in Pharoah Brown.
15. Trent Brown - I'm out. I don't think they should be in the Trent Brown business anymore. A bunch of the beat writers got all horny for Brown's comments over the final month of the season and again when the season was over. Was there a point or two in there that made sense? Yep. But primarily, it was the rantings of a selfish player who loved to remind the coaches that you can make me work longer, but you can't make me work harder. Draft a tackle in the top 2 rounds and lose Brown's number.
14. Jalen Mills - a versatile piece I thought had the best chance of sliding into Devin McCourty's role. It didn't play out that way, and he was vocal about his lack of snaps. Still can be a contributor but I wouldn't put much money on the table to bring him back.
13. Jalen Reagor - As a 4th or 5th receiver/returner. Nothing more.
12. Tyrone Wheatley Jr - They traded for him around cutdown day with their offensive line in shambles. He never found his way onto the field, so who knows if he's capable. That said, I don't know that he's not capable.
11. Pharoah Brown - Everyone got all horny for him because he ran well after the catch and occasionally finished a block with major punctuation. What they should have seen was how many times he didn't block the right guy or execute said block. As tight end #3, sure. But he is what he is.
10. Alex Austin - He showed a little something in his late-season audition. I don't think it will cost much to keep him around. So keep him around, then.
9. Ezekiel Elliott - He had a lovely year. He's also an older running back and probably got paid more than he should have to come aboard a year ago. I would only go to those lengths again if I had something brewing with Rhamondre Stevenson (holdout or trade?).
8. Myles Bryant - I will stand on this hill while you all throw crap at me. He's a useful player.
7. Kyle Dugger - What's the cost? Not that the Pats don't have the money, but they drafted Marte Mapu last year and have Jabril Peppers (whom I'd be looking to extend). While a fine player, I don't think Dugger is great. He struggled too much in coverage and has for the majority of his four years here. Do you anticipate that getting better?
6. Josh Uche - I was wrong about Uche. I would have paid him this summer. Now? I'm in the one-year deal category, where I'd be willing to stack some healthy incentives to make a shorter deal worth his while (earn up to $10 million total?). He can't play the run. So he's a one-dimensional player who's undersized at that. His pass rush metrics are still damn good, and he might end up being a double-digit sack guy like he was two years ago, but unless Mayo has a more significant role in mind for him, I'm reticent to go too far money-wise.
5. Kendrick Bourne - I think Bourne is looking at two years and between $12 and $15 million on the open market. Teams acquiring him will want that second year because he's coming off a midseason ACL, and it usually takes a good solid year to be close to yourself again, and by year two, things really start to cook. The WR was playing better than he ever had before the injury - which cost him millions. But he's busting his ass in rehab, and I'm told he is ahead of schedule. A matured (as a player) Bourne would look nice in a McVay/Shanahan scheme (he came from SF).
4. Mack Wilson - What if I told you he could give you Uche's production at a much cheaper price, or something close to it? This is one case where being a few percentage points less of a player than the man you might replace works for me. If I were Mayo, I'd rather spend the money on my broken offense.
3. Anfernee Jennings - He's earned it.
2. Hunter Henry - I'm not 100% convinced he wants to stay, but have a vision for him and sell him on that. The franchise tag is not cumbersome at tight end as it is at other positions, and you don't have a TE under contract, nor is the market flush with good ones (Dalton Schultz is the best of a weak class, aside from Henry).
1. Michael Onwenu - One report says he's a goner, and they know it. The Pats have money to burn and a serious need at tackle. You let it get to this point - whereas I've mentioned before - you're now going to be forced to overpay him. So what? Do it. You know what he is and how he works, and if you end up finding a better tackle down the line, move him back inside. He's a good player. It would help if you had more of those, not less.
MIGHTY MIGHTY
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will meet in the playoffs for the first time in their careers. At stake? A trip to the Super Bowl.
"He's going to be the MVP for a reason," said Mahomes of Jackson. "He goes out there, he leads his team, he scores, he runs, he throws. He does whatever it takes to win, and that's what the greats do."
"I don't like competing against him at all," Jackson laughed. "He's a great quarterback. Definite Hall of Famer. That's a no-brainer. He's definitely a Hall of Famer. I believe it's just two greats, two up-and-coming greats going toe to toe like a heavyweight fight. Heavyweight matchup, that's what I see."
For both defenses, it starts with figuring out a way to limit the quarterbacks from doing what they do. In their previous five meetings - starting in 2019 - the Chiefs have loaded the box against Jackson and the Ravens like no other, 54.6% of the time. That's 15% greater than all other opponents. But it goes beyond that. KC has also averaged its 2nd shortest average safety depth under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, challenging Jackson to beat them deep. Of course, that doesn't mean he can't beat you in other ways.
"Lamar's athleticism is second to none," said Chiefs safety Justin Reid. "His strength, his power, the way he's able to run the ball, his speed to get around the edge and get north and south. All of those things are a big challenge for us ... try and contain him in the pocket and make sure we get him on the ground the times he does run. But he can still make all of the throws..."
After being teased last week, it appears Jackson will get his top target, tight end Mark Andrews, back from a broken ankle Sunday. Andrews led all TEs in touchdowns over the first 11 weeks of the season (6) before he got hurt. Isaiah Likely, his backup, has five scores since Baltimore's Week 13 bye, which also tops everyone at the position over that stretch. Those big targets have long been the quarterback's binky. Jackson has a 143.5 passer rating targeting Likely in 2023, including the playoffs. That's the highest by any QB-TE duo in the NFL (minimum 25 targets). Who's second on that list? Try Jackson to Andrews (135.7).
The Chiefs have been exceptional against tight ends this year. Still, the Ravens' ability to utilize Andrews and/or Likely off the run game adds to the difficulty.
"They try to wear down defenses," said Reid. "They run the ball, and a lot of teams are able to match that in the first half. Then, they come out in the second half and start to beat down on them. They really start to have success and run the ball down people's throats. The biggest thing is to have that intensity and (be) run disciplined the entire game. Not just when everyone's juiced up at the start of the game but come out at halftime and have that same level of intensity and want to, the will to tackle, the will to take on blocks, the will to be physical for however long it takes."
The Chiefs offense has added an element of physicality to their offense, leaning heavily on running back Isaiah Pacheco, who runs like he's angry at everyone. But, of course, everything runs through Mahomes, who's only suffered playoff defeats to two quarterbacks - Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Not bad, considering he's been to the playoffs - and to this point - every year of his six-year career.
"We all know he's an elite QB," said linebacker Roquan Smith, a tackling machine. "He does everything well. I think, personally, it's just his ability to read coverages, extend plays with his legs, and then, if you're not plastering, being able to throw the ball downfield and hurt you. He's a great QB. We know that. But so are we... it's about us, for always and forever."
In 2023, the Ravens had the NFL's #1 scoring defense, #6 total defense, and #6 pass defense. They also led the NFL in takeaways and sacks in the regular season. Defensive coordinator Michael Macdonald - he's gotta get a head job, no? - and his group conquered all they have seen...so far.
"I like the duality of it," said safety Kyle Hamilton of the system Macdonald has employed. "We're moving around, everybody doing different things. It doesn't make us one-dimensional. It makes it hard on the offense to know who's doing what on each snap."
"He just allows us to be ourselves every single day," said Smith. He gives us such a unique plan. (He) dissects offenses like a mad scientist and gives them to us in a way we understand."
It's a fascinating matchup, and even though the Ravens are the number one seed, they know they're still hunting the league's most dominant and consistent force since Mahomes entered the league.
"This is the position we wanted to be in. It's all in our control. A game away from where we want to be and two games away from completing our mission," noted Hamilton, adding, "Pressure makes diamonds or pressure busts pipes. Hopefully, we're going to make diamonds."
DOES THE FEEL-GOOD STORY FINALLY MEET ITS MATCH IN SAN FRAN?
The Lions may have most of the football world rooting for them. After going an NFL record 31 seasons without a playoff win entering 2023, Detroit has won two straight postseason games. Next up, a trip to San Francisco to face the NFC's top-seeded 49ers. This is a massive test for Dan Campbell's team, particularly a defense that doesn't feel like championship quality (23rd in points against and 27th in passing yards allowed). So what's the Lions' first order of business?
"Stop the run," said Campbell. "You gotta stop the run. Because if you don't, they'll rush for 250 on you and won't even worry about passing. Everything has to start there. (Kyle) Shanahan does an unbelievable job. He's going to work one side and make you overreact. Then he's going to counter off that and play-pass off of it and works the middle of the field."
That's the one area Detroit has excelled at under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, allowing 88.5 yards per game. Part of that has been influenced situationally - the Lions have generally played from ahead this season.
"We're disruptive," said Campbell. "We're aggressive. And we hit. That, to me, has to be what we're about. Those are the principles. We may get hit on a couple of things. I know for me, I'm willing to give up something to get something. Things may happen, but that's OK because it'll pay dividends by the time it hits the fourth quarter. I think that's what we're doing."
Detroit has been doing a better job of taking the ball away lately, and that may come into effect again this weekend. Looking poised and decisive, Brock Purdy led the Niners on a game-winning drive. But before that, he was more skittish than a baby deer on a sheet of ice. Purdy averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, over 3 yards fewer than his regular season numbers, and his 86.7 passer rating matched a season-low.
"It doesn't matter if you play good or bad. You can't take any of that with you the next week," Purdy said. "It's a new game, a new scheme, a new environment. Everything about it is new. It's almost like you have a clean slate.
"You build off the good things you've done, but it's a new game. That's the mental battle that I feel all NFL quarterbacks go through, and that's where the great ones really separate themselves from the others."
Shanahan didn't absolve Purdy entirely for San Fran's below-average output, but the coach liked what he saw in the critical moments.
"We'd like to have done better. But the way Brock finished on the last drive, and everybody, we were able to overcome mistakes that we didn't earlier in the game. Brock did some good things that would have been impossible to win without."
Defensively, the Niners must figure out how to slow Jared Goff and the two-pronged rushing attack of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. In particular, that run game is causing some concern in the Bay Area, especially after Aaron Jones went for 108 in the divisional round.
"They can run downhill, hit you in the mouth, run outside," said Fred Warner.
Shanahan added that Detroit will "stick with the run; it's what they do, and it'll be a huge challenge this week."
The Lions have set a franchise record with 31 rushing TDs in 2023, including the playoffs, where they've hit paydirt on the ground twice in each of their two games.
NERD NUMBERS
Finally: Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught his first tight window target of 2023 in the divisional round versus the Bills (1 rec, 30 yards). Yes, you read that right - the very first all season. Valdes-Scantling led the NFL with nine tight window targets without a reception during the regular season. That's how you know things are going KC's way. That dude has hands like feet.
Pocket Puzzle: Jackson had career-highs in comp pct (68.4%) and yards (3,066) from inside the tackle box this season. Stop telling me he can't throw.
Tight End Eraser - Hamilton allowed a league-low -18.9 target EPA as the nearest defender vs tight ends this season. Fewest Target EPA vs. TEs (single-season, since 2021): 2023 Hamilton (-18.9), 2022 Germaine Pratt (-18.8), 2022 Avonte Maddox (-16.2). Hamilton vs. TEs (2023, min. 15 targets): 4.3 yards/target (6th), 25.0 passer rating (1st), 40.0% tight window rate (2nd).
Gus Bus: Gus Edwards has recorded a 27.3% success rate when being hit behind the LOS this season (1st among RBs). 35.1% of carries gain more yards than expected (1st) with 5 TD (T-1st). Edwards faced a stacked box on 34.3% of carries this season, the 3rd-highest rate among RBs (min. 100 carries).
Slot Machine: Amon-Ra St. Brown gained the 3rd-most receiving yards from the slot during the regular season (608) on 54 receptions (T-4th). The 49ers' defense faced the second-most slot targets in 2023.