Based on Jerod Mayo's interview on WEEI this morning, a number of stories are being produced as if there was some revelation on future plans. Ummm, no. There was nothing new there, especially if you've been paying attention to what Greg and I have been writing.
"We're bringing in talent, 1,000%. We have a lot of cap space and cash. We're ready to burn some cash," said Mayo to "The Greg Hill Show."
Well, yes, the Pats have no choice. They have to spend, as I illustrated back on December 21. Here's an excerpt from that piece:
Based on the team's current contractual commitments, they have less than $118 million committed to next season's roster. Considering the salary cap is projected to hit somewhere around $240 million, that's a lot of cash that needs to be spent, especially considering the 90% rule. Salary cap-wise, teams need to spend up to 90% in cash from 2024 to 26. To define further, cash spending is money paid out during the season, whereas cap spending includes money that has been paid but can be prorated over several years.
So think about it this way: if the Pats were to get to the 90% floor for 2024, they would need to shell out almost 100 million in cash (real dollars) for the upcoming season. That can be accomplished in several ways, including signing bonuses. They could also go way over that (again, the 90% rule is the average for this upcoming three-year period), as they did in 2021. You remember that offseason when the Pats spent like drunken sailors - writing out nearly $240 million worth of checks from the Kraft account. I can tell you with 100% certainty that that kind of spending - while accepted by RKK - was not enjoyed despite the team reaching the playoffs the following season; in fact, ownership was lamenting that cash outlay nearly two years later.
Mayo's other comment that is drawing headlines was regarding the draft, where the Pats have the 3rd overall pick - "We're going to take the best available player for the biggest need on the team: offensive line, receiver, quarterback -- pick your (choice)."
All are massive needs for the team, and the more I dive into the draft, the more I feel like you can get an excellent pass catcher in round two or later. That would narrow down that first-round choice to QB or tackle. If you don't expect to be in the top 5 again, the time to take the leap - if those top college kids grade out - is now.
BIG DECISIONS LOOMING IN BUFFALO
I wrote a lot about the Chiefs offense this fall, wondering if they could figure it out. Remind me next year to mindlessly assume that it will. Patrick Mahomes is a football genius, and his pairing with Andy Reid is a gift from the football gods. Six seasons, six trips to the AFC Championship game. Mercy.
Then there's Buffalo. The Bills saw their season end at Mahomes and KC's hands for the third time in four years. And now come the questions. Yes, they have an extensive list of free agents or overpaid vets. But as long as Josh Allen is on the roster, they'll be in the playoff mix. But GM Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott must figure out how to keep essential pieces around their quarterback.
Those without contracts for 2024 are Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, and Jordan Phillips. They also have to ask themselves if they want to bring back Jordan Poyer for the last year of his deal, what can be done with Von Miller (shell of his former self), and if they can co-exist with Stefon Diggs for one more season. A pre-June 1st cut/trade of Diggs seems impossible - there would be over 31 million in dead money. However, a post-June 1st designation would lead to just a little over eight mil in dead cap, creating over 19 mil in savings. Diggs didn't exceed 100 yards receiving in any of the final 13 games of the season.
Then there's the McDermott question. He's a good coach. He is. What he and Beane have accomplished there is admirable, especially considering what a black hole that has been since the Jim Kelly era (and a brief Doug Flutie renaissance). But McDermott pushed defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier out the door, assuming the role of playcaller on that side of the ball. He fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in the season, promoting Joe Brady to the interim post. After the 13-second debacle in 2021, the special teams coach got his walking papers. That leaves only one constant: McDermott himself. Beane and ownership have to ask themselves if they believe McDermott can get them over the hump or if they have maxed out under his leadership and a new direction is necessary. Bill Belichick, anyone? That may be why he's been dragging his feet with Atlanta, wondering if that gig might open. Something to ponder as we roll toward Championship weekend.
MINUTE BY MINUTE
John Harbaugh's hiring of Mike Macdonald from his brother Jim's Michigan staff is a huge reason why the Ravens are back in the AFC Championship game for the first time since winning Super Bowl XLVII.
The 36-year-old Macdonald is the only defensive coordinator over the last two years who can say he's consistently neutralized the Shanahan/McVay scheme.
The Ravens held the Texans without a touchdown in the divisional round, the same as they did during the regular season. Houston's offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, is the hottest thing since a summer day in the Sahara, and even he and his outstanding rookie QB, C.J. Stroud, couldn't find answers Saturday. That is another bullet point for Macdonald's resume and should lead him to a head coaching job in this cycle.
"The defense was as good as it could be," said John Harbaugh postgame.
Baltimore was 19th in points against and 25th in yards allowed per game in 2021, its last year under Wink Martindale. Macdonald instantly transformed them into a top-5 defense in his first year as DC and then pushed that unit to greater heights this season - fewest points per game, yards per attempt, tops in takeaways, and 5th in sack rate. Those numbers weren't padded versus lesser opponents. The Ravens went 3-0 against top-5 offenses Miami, San Francisco, and Detroit this year, holding them to 19, 19, and 6 points, respectively, vaulting Macdonald to the headliner in a number of coaching searches. It's also led to fans of the Ravens getting creative in trying to keep him.
Macdonald is also someone the Patriots should have spoken to, you know, had they had a real search for the job. He's 36, yet has been a DC for four seasons - two at Michigan and two in Baltimore. That doesn't mean he'll be better as a head coach than Mayo, but he has a variety of experiences that make him as well-prepared for the next step as any of the first-timers could be.
IN GOOD HANDS
Jordan Love is going to have to live with that cross-body throw for the entirety of the offseason and probably a lot longer - like, say, the next time he's in the playoffs - but the Packers still have to be thrilled with his progress this season, his leadership, and that talent. The velocity he creates - that whip - is elite, and he is growing alongside a young but gifted receiver room that is the envy of about 25 other teams in the NFL.
Love's breakout in this, his first year as a starter, takes me back to the 2020 NFL Draft. Regrets, the Pats should have a few. Coming off their first-round elimination at the hands of the Tennessee Titans and then seeing Tom Brady leave for Tampa Bay, the Pats needed a quarterback, even if - as Bill Belichick would later claim - resetting their salary cap was necessary. Love wasn't getting the top of the first-round buzz like Joe Burrow (#1 overall), Tua Tagovailoa (5th), or Justin Herbert (6th), but he was still considered a day-one talent. And the Pats, at 23, reportedly had done "serious homework" on the Utah State product. But when push came to shove, Belichick went the trade-back route, moving out of the first round entirely, receiving the 37th and 71st picks from the Chargers (who took LB Kenneth Murray).
At 37, Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Dugger got the call from Belichick and has been a valued contributor, albeit one who didn't get extended and is now headed into free agency. The Pats didn't use the 71st selection; instead, they paired it up with another pick (98) to jump up to 60 and take Josh Uche (the Ravens tabbed Justin Madubuike, who had an All-Pro caliber season in 2023). He has been a productive player who, like Dugger, is about to hit the open market. Meanwhile, the Packers have their QB of the future - one they had no problem sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three years before handing over the keys.
The Pats, on the other hand, are in the challenging position of finding a franchise signal-caller after swinging and missing with Mac Jones. In 2020, they assembled a quarterback room of Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Brian Hoyer. You want to talk about gross negligence...
I remember talking with Josh McDaniels about why Stidham was never given a chance, and he felt as though the Covid offseason and overall league restrictions on meeting times slowed Stidham's growth. Still, when that season was lost, the smart move would have been to see what they had in Stidham. That never happened.
HOW ABOUT THEM LIONS?
One week after breaking through with their first playoff win in 31 years, the Lions punched their ticket to the NFC title game by beating the Bucs, 31-23.
"(We're) not here by accident," said quarterback Jared Goff, pointing to the front office and coaching staff.
And if you're a Patriots fan, you should pay close heed to what Detroit did after hiring a former player, Dan Campbell, to be their head coach. He has surrounded himself with ex-players - Aaron Glenn at DC (and on the HC interview circuit), Hank Fraley (OL), Dre' Bly (CB), Antwaan Randle El (WR), Mark Brunell (QB), J.T. Barrett (QB) and Shaun Dion Hamilton (LBs), a former Super Bowl winning head coach (John Fox) and the hottest coaching candidate on the market, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who appears to be the Commanders next head coach when this run is over.
It's been a three-year build, from 3-13 in year one to 9-8, with five wins in their final six games in year two. That set the table for this - just a win separating this previously woebegone franchise from a trip to the Super Bowl.
Campbell's approach has been to match the city's DNA.
"It's not the first thing you think of if you go to LA or just in general," said Campbell when comparing Detroit to other NFL cities like LA. "You've got the sun, you've got the beach, you've got plenty of other things going on. And here, man, it's harsh winters, the auto industry, and blue-collar; things aren't always easy. And I think that's what we're about. You want something the city can be proud of.
"You can look at those guys and say, 'Man, I can back that guy. I can back that team. I can resonate with those group of guys. They're kind of salty. They don't quit. They play hard. And so, I feel like we've done that. And I think these guys have a kinship with this city and this area, and they love it, man, and ultimately, that's what you want. Now, a year from now, two years, we'll be getting booed, maybe; that's a whole other deal, though. But right now, life's good, and I'm glad we could deliver that."
But Campbell couldn't do that without the players. Goff appeared to be a throw-in when they shipped Matthew Stafford to LA. Now he's playing the best football of his career, a credit to him for continuing to improve and to Lions GM Brad Holmes for surrounding him with skill and protecting him with a terrific offensive line. Here's the group, and here's how they were acquired.
QB - Goff (2016 1st - trade)
RB - David Montgomery (2019 3rd round - free agency) and Jahmyr Gibbs (2023 1st)
WR- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2021 4th), Josh Reynolds (2017 4th - FA), Khalif Raymond (FA), Jameson Williams (2022 1st)
TE- Sam LaPorta (2023 2nd), Brock Wright (FA)
OL - Penei Sewell (2021 1st), Frank Ragnow (2018 1st), Taylor Decker (2016 1st), Jonah Jackson (2020 3rd), Graham Glasgow (2016 3rd)