Someone is going to have the unenviable task of replacing Bill Belichick, the greatest NFL coach in history who just happened to win six Super Bowl titles.
For the first time in 24 years, the Kraft family has a chance to completely change how their football operations operate.
Will they do that? Or will they go with familiarity?
It would be a mistake if the Krafts didn't take this opportunity to look at the landscape, talk to the best and brightest around the game - if they haven't done either - and then chart a way forward.
That likely will not happen. From all indications, including multiple league sources, the Patriots are likely to go forward with Jerod Mayo as head coach. Most think Bill O'Brien is also likely to stay, but that's not as clear. Personnel could be handled by an internal candidate like Eliot Wolf.
How did the Patriots get to this point? Multiple personnel mistakes by Bill Belichick. How are they going to return to prominence? Personnel.
So in most operations, the focus would be on the general manager, who then assists in picking the coach. But we have no clue how the team is going to proceed.
A look at the top candidates for both jobs, if the Patriots were going to run a full job search, which it appears they will not:
UPDATE: It appears they will not after this report.
Sources: Jerod Mayo is a strong candidate to replace Bill Belichick & if he is the choice, the #Patriots could simply hire him. No need to go through the lengthy hiring process -- they established a firm, contractual succession plan in a prior contract & communicated it to the… pic.twitter.com/xZYUgEkUuC
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 11, 2024
Rapoport went on to illustrate three other scenarios when that happened: Ravens (Eric DeCosta, 2019), Seahawks (Jim Mora, 2008) and Colts (Tony Dungy, 2002).
DeCosta was a special circumstance — had been there for years and had numerous opportunities to leave. Ravens wanted to keep him. It was also after a planned retirement. Same with Mora after Holmgren
Dungy was before the Rooney Rule began in 2003 so it didn't matter.
With the strengthening of the Rooney Rule last year, it was believed the Patriots had to at least interview two outside minority candidates. The spirit of the rule is to expose the owners to as many minority candidates as possible, even if it's just for down the road.
GENERAL MANAGER
Adam Peters, 49ers assistant GM: Started his career in New England and then worked in Denver for John Elway before becoming the No. 2 man to John Lynch with the 49ers. Could be retained if Lynch is promoted. It will take a really good offer to get him to jump at a new job. Reportedly a finalist for the Commanders job.
Mike Borgonzi, Chiefs assistant GM: The Everett native was originally hired by Scott Pioli and has been the right-hand man to GM Brett Veach for seven years and two Super Bowl titles.
Will McClay, Cowboys VP of player personnel: The real GM behind the scenes in Dallas. The Cowboys have compensated him very well and he's never left. Could that finally change?
Eliot Wolf, Patriots personnel: This is the third organization (Packers, Browns) where he rose to within a whisker of the big job, but he has yet to get it. Very smart. Aggressive in crafting deals (Ted Thompson never pulled the trigger). Great sources throughout the league. Deserves a shot at a top job.
Jon Robinson, former Titans GM: Rose to director of college scouting for the Patriots under Belichick before getting the top job in Tennessee. Rebuilt the team to AFC finalists and No. 1 seed.
Patrick Stewart, Patriots personnel: With stops in New England and Philadelphia, rose to VP with the Panthers before being caught in the wash of a revolving crapshow. Great sources around the league. Very smart and well-liked around the league.
Dave Ziegler, former Raiders GM: Rose to be Belichick's personnel man before leaving with Josh McDaniels to Vegas. Smart, great eye for talent, aggressive with trades (DeVante Adams) and the salary cap. Strong opinions.
Joe Hortiz, Ravens director of player personnel: The next Eric DeCosta. Has all the tools in the toolbox to be a great GM after coming up as a college scout.
Matthew Berry, Seahawks senior director of player personnel: Has risen steadily under John Schneider and is a key component of that front office that annually has a lot of talent and acquires it in a variety of ways.
Ryan Cowden, Giants advisor: Rose to VP with the Titans before being pushed out as the team hired Ran Carthon. Mike Vrabel is a big fan. Has interviewed for a handful of GM positions.
Trey Brown, Bengals senior personnel executive: Ties to the Patriots (including Mayo) and the Eagles before becoming a key part of one of the most productive personnel departments in the league.
Ian Cunningham, Bears assistant GM: Pulled out Cardinals job last year. Great track record with Ravens and Eagles. Reportedly a finalist for the Commanders job.
Ed Dodds, Colts assistant GM, Indianapolis Colts: Helped build the Legion of Boom in Seattle before becoming the top lieutenant to Chris Ballard. Known for his scouting prowess and contacts.
Alec Halaby, Eagles assistant GM: Howie Roseman's protégé - Harvard grad who is almost all analytics and financial but has little experience on the scouting side.
James Liipfert, Texans executive director of player personnel: Started in New England and Bill O'Brien brought him to the Texans. Nick Caserio values his input immensely.
HEAD COACH
Jerod Mayo, Patriots linebackers: Every former teammate says he was the smartest player they played with. Unquestioned leader of men. Progressive when it comes to how to do things. Krafts view him similarly to how they did Belichick in 1996 as an assistant (but Belichick did have HC experience in Cleveland) when Kraft regretted not hiring him. They won't make the same mistake with Mayo. Krafts also view him as moldable. Big drawback is Mayo has only been an assistant for 5 years and has never called his own defense.
Mike Vrabel, former Titans HC: Known as one of the best coaches in the game with what he did in Tennessee with subpar QBs and limited talent. Can coach all three phases of the game. The outpouring of support from his players at his firing was impressive. Downside: Offenses have not been great and he has shown a preference for old-school football.
Brian Flores, Vikings defensive coordinator: Arguably the best standalone DC under Belichick, at least in the second dynasty. Fairly good term in Miami but there were some rocky situations with players. Stops in Pittsburgh and Minnesota may have given him perspective. Offense was a big blindspot for him as well.
Ben Johnson, Lions offensive coordinator: The next big offensive hotshot who will get any job he wants this hiring cycle.
Bobby Slowik, Texans offensive coordinator: Went from Kyle Shanahan to the Texans and morphed CJ Stroud and the Texans' offense into a playoff team.
Eric Bieniemy, Commanders OC: Just looked at what the Chiefs' offense is doing without him? Known as an innovator and tough coach who doesn't put up with much.
Frank Smith, Dolphins OC: Helped construct the Greatest Show on Surf offense with Mike McDaniel. Smith was voted the No. 1 offensive coordinator in the NFL in a recent NFLPA poll surveying 1,700 NFL players. Worked for Super Bowl winners Sean Payton, Jon Gruden and John Fox.