Bedard: A plan for Belichick to stay in power; Rough timeline/rules; Vrabel not going away; Mayo's maneuver

FOXBOROUGH — Welcome to one of the biggest weeks (or two) in the history of the New England Patriots.

Bill Belichick could be coaching his final game and then departing the franchise.

He also could be back with major changes.

The more I talk to people around this issue, the more uncertain I am in what will happen. I think the Krafts have a mindset to move on from Belichick, that it's time to take their team back and set a new course now that Belichick has taken this franchise as far as he can.

But they are also "conflicted", according to multiple sources, and if Belichick strikes the right tone, is persuasive enough the team isn't that far away and presents a workable plan to push the franchise forward, there's a chance he could return for a 25th season.

"I just think that Kraft is so smart and so concerned about the narrative and the public and everything else, but I also know he's this he's smart enough to know this: no matter what he does, there's going to be criticism unless he wins," said one league source who knows both parties well. "Tom leaves and wins a Super Bowl. There's no way they can do a total teardown and rebuild. And I can't see Jerod (Mayo) being that guy to elevate this program immediately. So what's his best chance to win next year? It might be sticking with Bill. If Kraft does something and loses, I don't care who the coach is, Kraft is going to get killed for it.

"I think that's the tug-of-war that Kraft has going on in his stomach right now."

As of now, I put the odds of Belichick no longer being the Patriots coach at 1-2, which translates to a 33 percent chance of him staying in power.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Saturday: "It feels like the end of an era to many around the league ... It is uncertain how this will play out and when a decision will be official, but few expect Belichick to be fired. ... If he is not wanted in New England, which is the suspicion of many, then Belichick soon will be interviewing to become a head coach elsewhere."

We're beyond debating whether or not Belichick should retain his job. You're either in one camp or the other at this point. What we're going to do here is slip on our Hoodie and present a viable plan for Belichick to stay in power that could appeal to the Krafts.

Of course, much of this is centered on Belichick acknowledging that he no longer has the leverage, if it is his desire to remain in New England, he has to give up a few things and is open to breaking some of his long-held tenets.

THE PITCH

From those who know Belichick well, expect him to remind Robert Kraft that it was his idea to put Bill O'Brien in place and double-down on Mac Jones.

"This was your idea and it got worse," Belichick could say to Kraft. "You didn't like 2022, but we were 8-8 going to Buffalo with a chance to get into the playoffs. We did what you wanted, had bad injury luck, and this happened. I think we've all had a share in some of the mistakes and that's fine. But we can put it back together.

"We put this on the right track with a new QB, high draft picks and a lot of cap space. We're not that far away."

There's accountability on both sides for where this team is right now and that needs to be acknowledged and accepted by the Krafts - and Belichick.

"They've definitely meddled in this and it hasn't gone well," said another league source. "That's just a fact.

"This team could be competitive because the defense is pretty good and they do have some good players - it's not totally barren. Judon, Gonzalez, Stevenson, Pop Douglas, Onwenu. Henry. There are others, but that's a start."

Say the Krafts are a little intrigued. Obviously the status quo in terms of the front office and coaching staff can't stand. If Belichick wants to pretend everything is fine, he is deluding himself, he's dead in the water and happy trails. But he could say ...

"We all know that if Josh McDaniels didn't leave in 2021 and take a bunch of coaching and front office staff (director of college scouting Brandon Yeargan and pro scout Jordan Hein were two huge, underrated losses) with him - and I screwed up not holding on to more coaches and not having replacements ready, I didn't think he was really going to go work for Mark Davis - there's no way we're having this conversation right now, right?" Belichick could say. "It wasn't bad two years ago. And we all had a part in the last two years.

"What if we do this... What if we bring Josh back and improve the offensive staff significantly - a lot of those guys in Vegas could come back if there's changes there. We'll use the early pick on a quarterback but Josh will be here to help me do that the right way. He'll train him the right way, like he did with Mac in Year 1 but with a lot more talent at QB. We'll focus the personnel improvements on offense to support the quarterback. We're still going to play good defense. And we'll get rid of some of the people that have contributed to the crappy culture we have going around the building at the moment.

"I get it, you want personnel changes. I'm on board. I'm willing to work with these people: Dave Zeigler, Jon Robinson, Eliot Wolf, Pat Stewart. You have my word that I will defer to them on the draft and free agency. If you want to hire a new cap person and expand analytics, I'm open to that. I realize I can't do it all anymore. But I want to finish what we started and finish this the right way."

I could see that at least intriguing the Krafts to take a step back and reassess for a few days. They could get on the phone with McDaniels (who's right down the road, by the way) and Zeigler - who are, additionally, cheap - and bounce it off them. See what they think about that potential arrangement. Could they see that working, or do they think Belichick is too stuck in his ways?

And then make a decision.

I certainly have my doubts that Belichick is really going to change his stripes. And is he really going to be open to dismissing a lot of people on the coaching staff and front office? Belichick never fires anybody, and he holds firm to seniority really mattering in terms of number of years with the team (which is how you have Steve Belichick ahead of Mayo - that should change, give Mayo the DC title). He wouldn't have any issues bringing in a free-agent player to take the place of an underperforming Patriots veteran, why should the coaches and the front office be any different? Get the best people you can and empower them. Enough of what's been going on here for way too long.

I don't know how this would work with Bill O'Brien, who I think was a victim in this season, but things happen and Belichick would be trying to preserve his own power. To quote The Wire, "The game is the game." Sometimes unfair sacrifices happen. Obviously it would be great if good friends McDaniels and O'Brien could find a way to work together and I don't rule it out if staying at home is a priority for O'Brien, but there are rumblings that he hasn't immensely enjoyed his return to One Patriot Place (wouldn't blame him one bit) and would be open to change (with Mike Vrabel somewhere, possibly?)

All due respect to Matt Groh, who like Matt Patricia was put into a lose-lose position by Belichick before he was ready, it's time for him to take a backseat again.

Is this all out of the ream of possibility? Perhaps. A lot of this will depend on what kind of feelers Belichick has received from backchannels. If he feels strong he'll have options, I don't see the conversation going that far.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. The NFL distributed the anti-tampering policy and hiring documents to teams on Friday. Key parts for the Patriots:

• A club can't do anything with current NFL personnel until they have an opening at head coach;
• Virtual interviews (only) with any candidate can take place starting the third day after their Week 18 game prior to the conclusion of the divisional games (Jan. 21). Candidates on wild-card participants can't be interviewed until three days after that game. Candidates on playoff byes can have virtual interviews this week through the conclusion of those games.
• Beginning Jan. 22, clubs can conduct in-person interviews (or virtual) with candidates not in the playoffs.
• Teams are prohibited from conducting initial interviews with candidates in conference titles games until their season is over. Second interviews are barred until Jan. 29. A team can't even grant permission.
• Beginning Feb. 4, contact with candidates in the Super Bowl is banned until Monday, Feb. 12.
• Teams with a vacancy at head coach, any coordinator position, and general manager must conduct an in-person interview with at least two external minority candidates. For QB coach, it's one external candidate. 
• College coaches not under contract can be contacted at any time.

The league has really tried to slow the hiring process down. The days of having a staff in place, or putting the finishes touches on it, at the Senior Bowl (practices start Jan. 29) are pretty much over (not that it really matters, the etnire personnel department is usually contracted through the draft and keeps doing the work).

If Jerod Mayo is going to be the successor, the fastest timeline would be parting ways with Belichick this week. Interviewing at least two outside minority candidates not in the playoffs on Jan. 22 and naming him the next day.

The Patriots can begin speaking to GM candidates, whether they're out of or in the playoffs (with permission) as soon as Belichick is severed from the organization. As soon as the Rooney Rule is satisfied, the Patriots can make a hire.

2. Mike Vrabel, as I've said a few times before, is not going away. From Schefter:

"There are people around the league who think that either Vrabel would be open to be moved to another team or that the Titans would be open to moving him -- maybe both."

The Krafts are obviously not afraid to deal for coaching candidates if that's who they want.

If the Patriots had interest in speaking to Vrabel, they would have to ask for permission from the Titans - once the Patriots have an opening. If it's not granted, then Vrabel would have to force the issue.

3. Jerod Mayo has been speculated as a possible successor to Belichick, but he did something very curious recently. According to two league sources, Mayo at least ghosted (if not fired) longtime agent Sean Kiernan of the powerful agency Athletes First. Maybe there's an innocent explanation for this, but the timing is very strange if he was indeed the heir apparent for a while.

4. In Schefter's report, Belichick was linked to the Chargers. I would also put the Falcons on the list with the Buccaneers if they lose. I wouldn't rule out the Panthers, Commanders or Cowboys with an early playoff exit.

5. Bedard's Pick

Fanduel Odds: Patriots -1.5, 30.5 o/u

Bedard's 2023 record: 8-8 overall, 10-6 vs. spread.

I have no clue what's going to happen in this game, but I have much more confidence in the Patriots not having their bags packed for Cancun than the Jets. And Belichick is not losing to the freaking Jets in his last possible game as Patriots coach, especially not to Trevor Siemian.

Patriots 23, Jets 10.