Bedard's Breakdown: Defense had it moments, but Josh Allen was responsible for Patriots not getting blown out

Josh Allen was more accurate after Sunday's win against the Patriots than he was during it, when asked about his day (15 of 30, 169 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 53.3 rating).

"I was just off," he said. "Just trying to find a rhythm early. Just couldn't seem to find one. Felt like we got into a little bit of a groove in the third and fourth quarter. Got to start better than that. It's never fun throwing incomplete pass after incomplete pass. Just got to find a way early on to get our guys more involved."

Asked about the third-quarter miss of a wide-open Stefon Diggs for a potential 88-yard touchdown when Jalen Mills left Jonathan Jones on an island, Allen said: "Yeah, just missed him. That's plain and simple."

Of course, Allen was also wise to credit the Patriots' defense as well.

"I think they had a good game plan," he said. "I think they did a good job of rushing and just making me feel some stuff at my feet. Just, again, got the timing off just ever so slightly and that's all it really takes and they play good coverage in the back end."

Allen wasn't wrong. The Patriots' defense aided Allen in one of his most dreadful games in recent times. It's never all one thing in football, it's about everything. The Patriots' defense could have done a good job, but Allen also could have just had a terrible game throwing the ball.

Immediately after the game, he let his unvarnished thoughts go.

Then there's also the fact that, according to NextGen Stats, Allen was the second-worst quarterback in terms of accuracy in Week 17. Allen's expected completion percentage (based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, drops and more, according to the NFL's NGS) was 65.2 percent, meaning his Completion Percentage Above (or Below) Expectation was -15.2.

Only Atlanta's Taylor Heinicke (-27.9) was worse than Allen in Week 17.

The not-always-reliable ProFootballFocus.com (which gave Bailey Zappe the Patriots' third-best passing grade of the season, despite 3 INTs, on Sunday) gave Allen his second-worst grade of the season (Jets, 3 INTs, in Week 1).

Also, Allen had his highest "bad-throw" percentage of the season, 25%, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

The film from this game backed all that up. I was so startled by Allen's performance, which was more reminiscent of his rookie form (52.8% completions) than his recent MVP-type seasons spent carving up the Patriots, that I started to jot down his minus plays.

First quarter: 7 minus plays (with two drops)
Second quarter: 3 (INT, drop)
Third quarter: 1 (the big miss to Diggs)
Fourth quarter: 2

Thirteen (plus a half for the INT) in a game is a truckload. Only Mac Jones (2021 Week 16 at Buffalo, 2023 Week 9 vs. Washington) had worse for the Patriots the past three seasons.

Some of Allen's lowlights, before we get into a video breakdown, unit ratings and 5 up/5 down:

First drive: Keion White got some late pressure, but Allen overthrew an open Dalton Kincaid on third down.

Second drive: Some late pressure, but Allen airmails Diggs out of bounds near the end zone. Khalil Shakir also open over the middle. ... On third down, James Cook drops a screen that had potential.

Third drive: Allen is not patient enough with the double TE over/under combo of Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Ja'Whaun Bentley bit on the under but Allen was already off it. ... On the next play, Bentley comes free on a blitz but Allen easily slides around him and rolls right, his most dangerous side, where he has killed the Patriots over the years. Diggs gets behind Dugger by a few steps but Allen underthrows a ball we've seen him make countless times and it his Dugger in the helmet.

Fifth drive: Allen ends up scrambling for 7 yards and a first down as Deatrich Wise loses contain, but RB Ty Johnson is wide open on the left against Jahlani Tavai. ... On third and goal, Allen doesn't see the rub route on the right leaving Shakir open in the end zone, he had Diggs at the pylon for a score, and then throws a bad ball low to Kincaid in the end zone. 

Sixth drive: With multiple people open (Deonte Harty was open behind everyone on a go), a wide-open Knox drops a ball that is slightly behind him as Jalen Mills delivers a late hit. ... On 2nd and 6, Allen throws a wheel route to Cook against Tavai out of bounds and they wind up punting at the NE 46.

Seventh drive: Trent Sherfield, who runs a questionable route, is wide open for 14 yards against Alex Austin with zero pressure and Allen threw it wide. ... The interception was nice teamwork between Mills (who pointed Austin to the sideline) and Austin, but Allen missed the post against Mills, who had turned his back to Allen. There was no pressure and the back in the flat was another option.

Eighth drive: Latavius Murray drops a wide-open 3rd and 2 pass that leads to a punt from the BUF 45 before halftime, but a TE was wide-buck open right in the middle and Gabe Davis was open on the sideline as well.

That's just the first half. You wonder why the Patriots were down just 20-14?

A look at those plays, plus the Kincaid 51-yarder and the bust that left Diggs open for a possible touchdown:

Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:

OFFENSE

Quarterback (1 out of 5)

Put 2.5 of the interceptions on Bailey Zappe in a dreadful first half (3 plus plays, 8.5 minus plays). The third was largely Reagor's fault but Zappe also can't throw it without any indication Reagor is going to stop and be a hot option. Plus, Zappe just panicked that there was a free rusher on an overload blitz. ... Two of Zappe's plus plays were the two big scrambles. He did have great throws/plays to Mike Gesicki (eluding several would-be sackers) and Reagor. 

Running backs (2.5 out of 5)

Ezekiel Eliott had a great one-handed catch, broke a tackle for 6 yards and the touchdown, but he had two poor runs and allowed a knockdown. ... Kevin Harris showed more pop with two big plays, the 15-yard run and the big screen pass that the Bills butchered. Great call by Bill O'Brien.

Receivers (2 out of 5)

Speaking of BOB, that 17-yard double screen to DeMario Douglas was nifty, and helped by the Magic Man breaking four tackles. ... In addition to the INT (great kickoff return), Reagor had another poor route. ... Didn't like Mike Gesicki going down without much contact 2 yards short of the sticks or easily going out of bounds on another catch, but that's been pretty typical of him in his NFL career.

Offensive line (2 out of 5)

Atonio Mafi again struggled as he continues to look more like a developmental player than backup. ... Mike Onwenu had his first rough game in a while as Leonard Floyd was a pain in the ass for the Patriots. ... David Andrews was outstanding again and would really be helped by Mafi being better with his footwork. ... Sidy Sow continues to show well, and Vederian Lowe has quietly been doing a solid job the past two games.

DEFENSE

Defensive line (4 out of 5)

Did a nice job with rush discipline against Allen (still, only 25% pressure) to contribute to his rough day. ... Anfernee Jennings, after a rough game, rebounded very well. He's unbelievably stout against the run. ... Josh Uche, who got crumbled early for a 6-yard gain, is not. Only 23 snaps vs. Allen? Says a lot. ... Christian Barmore's now getting doubled more, but he's still productive and holding his own against the run. ... Deatrich Wise and Keion White both got run over on touchdown runs. But both had moments rushing Allen. ... Surprised to see Lawrence Guy's tank a little empty. Not like him. 

Linebackers (1 out of 5)

Some decent work on the ground (although it was mostly the line), but both Bentley and Tavai struggled in pass coverage, especially Bentley. He's had two of his worst games the past two weeks. He must be exhausted and/or injured.

Secondary (2.5 out of 5)

I don't totally fault Dugger for the big play to Kincaid. I've watched that play multiple times and I can't figure out the call. It wasn't quite an all-out blitz. My guess is Myles Bryant (or someone else) was supposed to be the deep safety. He got bailed out on a couple of Allen's big misses, but Dugger as active in this one. ... Jalen Mills doesn't look right at free safety. ... Austin (INT, screen play) has done fine as a reserve. ... But, like I said, if Allen was on his game, the Patriots were ripe to be taken.

FIVE UP

Anfernee Jennings: Was active in a pain in the ass for the Bills' line. He's making himself a lot of money.

Christian Barmore: You don't need three sacks to continue to dominate.

David Andrews: Has some outstanding run blocks.

Keion White: A big body that can move can be effective against Allen for years.

Sidy Sow: Stands out in the run game. Makes you wonder what they saw to put him at tackle first.

FIVE DOWN

Atonio Mafi: Just give Jake Andrews a shot. It's too soon for Mafi.

Bailey Zappe: Half-bad, half-good again. If someone tells you who they are, you should listen.

Ja'Whaun Bentley: He's been a snap workhorse for years and the warrior has hit a bit of a wall.

Pharoah Brown: Can't fumble in that spot.

Mike Onwenu: I think he'd even tell you that he wasn't on his A game.

HONORARY DOWN

Josh Allen: He was dog crap in this game. This should have been a blowout. He's the reason it was not.