Bedard: The case for and against Jerod Mayo as potential next Patriots head coach

As the Patriots approach the end of this season and an uncertain future, we'll take a look at the cases for various candidates to lead football operations for years to come.

Part 1: Bill Belichick

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JEROD MAYO

Positives

- As a former excellent player himself, he enjoys immediate respect among players that he would have under his control.

- Extremely smart. In his playing days, Mayo was known as one of the smartest players on the field. A coach in the making, he ran the defense as a rookie on his way to being NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

- Runs most of the defensive meetings. There's no question he can stand in front of the group and command their attention and respect. Universally known as an unparalleled leader of men.

- The Patriots' defense, which he has helped direct with Steve Belichick, has annually been a top-10 unit capable of holding down the best offenses enough for the team to win games (if they had an offense).

- Unrivaled work ethic. He worked tirelessly as a player and coach to give himself and the team an edge.

- Has real-world business experience from his post-playing days. From Entrepreneur.com: "Some of the most interesting years of Mayo's career were from 2016 to 2019, when he took the skills and understanding that he mastered in football and transformed himself into a business executive. In 2016, Mayo joined Optum, a technology-focused subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group, as vice president of business development. While at Optum, he worked on consumer solutions with clients and consulted on mergers and acquisitions." He's also done continued work as a start-up consultant and angel investor.

- The belief is that Mayo has enough outside experience that he represents an evolution of sorts to Bill Belichick, who was brought up solely around football. Think the football mind of Belichick mixed with modern business practices and analytics. 

- Mayo is known to possess very strong emotional intelligence when dealing with players, which would be a departure from Belichick.

- Players at the position he coaches, linebacker, have had a high level of success and development.

- He would continue the Patriots' Super Bowl-winning lineage and keep identity and foundation in place. No need to deal with changing the culture. The culture is already in place. 

- Is good with the media, especially after being among them for a few years, and is capable of giving real answers on a variety of subjects. Would be an upgrade as the voice of the football team.

- Keeping Mayo in place, changing the front office a bit and the assistant coaching staff - if Mayo and others are allowed to do that - would allow the Krafts to make a regime change on the cheap. I'm not saying that's a positive for me, but it has to be part of the calculation - and a positive one - for the Krafts. It's changing some big things on the cheap.

- As a former Patriots player and coach, the Krafts could use a familiar face to assuage at least some of the fanbase about change. Hard to be against the choice initially if it's a Patriot through and through.

- Would be the first black head coach in Patriots history. That's not a small thing.

NEGATIVES

- Has zero head coaching experience. In fact, he's never even called his own defense. 

- He's only been a coach since 2019. This is only his fifth season as a coach, period. Other former players turned coaches have had more experience. Dan Campbell, who was an interim head coach of the Dolphins and an assistant head coach with the Saints, was an assistant for 11 years before becoming the Lions' head coach. DeMeco Ryans, who was a similar player to Mayo, was an assistant for six years and the 49ers' defensive coordinator for two (two NFC Championships, first in yards and points allowed his final season) before becoming the Texans' head coach. Mike Vrabel was an assistant for seven years, including one as Texans defensive coordinator, before becoming Titans head coach.

- Has zero experience outside the Patriots' organization. He only knows the Patriot Way, which appears to be expiring. That lack of experience outside Foxborough has not worked for previous assistants who became head coaches.

- If Mayo is the one to succeed Belichick, how much change are we really talking about? If it's just moving around a few titles but most of the rest are staying in place, is Mayo an upgrade over Belichick?

- Mayo was an excellent player, but he never won a Super Bowl on the field or as a coach with the Patriots. He was injured in Week 6 during the 2014 season, the only title he won as a player. He was in the private sector in 2016 and '18.

- Having never ventured outside the One Patriot Place bubble, how will he be able to restock this assistant coaching staff - which is an absolute must? If Belichick departs to coach again and some personnel (front office and assistants) go with him, what kind of Rolodex is he working off of and how will he attract them to his staff, especially having to follow Belichick? His agent, Sean Kiernan, has a great reputation and works with a huge firm (Athletes First) that has a deep roster on the coaching side.

- As I previously reported, Mayo has rubbed some in the organization the wrong way. Some describe him as arrogant, entitled and disrespectful at times. Others say he's a "self-promoter" and "politicker." None of that would disqualify you as coach or leader of men - plenty of successful coaches have been described as much worse - but it should cause some pause if that person is leading the entire football operations and/or needing to work in concert with a GM, coordinators, assistant coaches and training staff. Especially after Belichick, who got away without being the greatest at playing with others because he had Super Bowl rings. Being a head coach is more than just being able to lead players.

BOTTOM LINE

It's hard to make a convincing case that Mayo deserves to be a head coach right now. He would have been much better served becoming a defensive coordinator as soon as possible with another team, and then coming back at this time. When it comes to being an NFL head coach, not possessing a long track record and/or being a coordinator is not the normal path. Mayo is extremely green when compared to other head coaching hires.

The two future Hall of Fame coaches the Krafts have hired, Pete Carroll and Belichick, both had previous head coaching experience and were top-notch coordinators for two different teams each.

Maybe Mayo is the person to break the mold. His intelligence and skills in getting players to execute are without question. He can definitely lead a room and players. Perhaps the only reason Mayo wasn't a coordinator previously here is solely due to Belichick and the presence of his son, Steve. Should Mayo be punished for that?

Mayo certainly has a lot of plusses, but we're not talking about a fledgling franchise here. We're talking about the Patriots, who have hung six Super Bowl banners. You would think they could attract a head coach, to follow Belichick, with a better track record and more experience. This seems a little early for Mayo.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Bill Belichick certainly made a convincing argument for Rodney Harrison to be voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, after he became a finalist for the first time.

"Best safety I've coached," Belichick said. "There's a couple other ones I've coached that are in the Hall of Fame. Fantastic player, person and great competitor. Could do it all. One of the most versatile players I've ever coached. He could cover. He really could play corner. He was a great blitzer. A great tackler. He was really hard to block in the running game, as a blitzer and on kickoff coverage. Very explosive. Two-hundred twenty pounds, whatever he was. He was a thumper. He was a contact player. Ran well. Very instinctive. He did a great job of disguising coverages. Worked well with his teammates, you know, with Eugene [Wilson II] and some of the different safeties we had back there through his career.

"He’s just a heck of a football player. He's one of the best I've ever coached. I mean, he’d certainly be on my all-time team without question. Behind [Lawrence] Taylor, but he’d certainly be right up there. A tremendous player. Great practice player, too. Made everybody else on the team better. If you practiced against him, you got better or you got embarrassed, one of the two. He brought a level of competitiveness, intensity, focus. Brought a higher level of practice to the team, which helped everybody. There's a lot of things that don't show up in the stats or anything like that. Tremendous respect for what he did as a player. What he brought to our team. How much he meant to our team. What we lost when we lost him. We lost a great, great player. Monday through Monday. It wasn't just on Sunday. What he brought to the team every day of the week. Every day he walked into the building. Every time he stepped on the field. Was all positive and impressive. Certainly, I hope he gets recognized, I think he definitely deserves it. This guy's a great football player. Great teammate."

2. The full finalists list:

Up to five modern-era players may be elected by receiving a minimum positive vote of 80 percent

How I would rank the guys I would consider (I don't have a vote, All-Pro are all first-team):

Patrick Willis (5x All-Pro)
Dwight Freeney (3x All-Pro)
Jahri Evans (4x All-Pro)
Darren Woodson (3x All-Pro)
Devin Hester (3x All-Pro)
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Jared Allen (4x All-Pro)
Antonio Gates (3x All-Pro)
Willie Anderson (3x All-Pro)
Rodney Harrison (2x All-Pro)
Julius Peppers (3x All-Pro)
Andre Johnson (2x All-Pro)
Reggie Wayne (1x All-Pro)

First of all, I'm a Small Hall guy in every sport. Yes, I put a lot of stock in first-team All-Pro teams. That's the best measure for being among the best of your era, which is a must for me.

Harrison is certainly worthy and a great player, but I think his admitted PED use (suspended in 2007 but there were reports he was using back to 2004) has been problematic for him.

3. So this definitely made the rounds this week in regards to Bill O'Brien:

Milroe is certainly entitled to take it the way that he did, but there has to be more context here. I'd be shocked, knowing O'Brien, if there wasn't. What if O'Brien was just giving his honest assessment as to Milroe's future as an NFL draft prospect at QB? Would it be so wrong if O'Brien said something like, "Hey, you could be a good college QB but given my experience in the NFL, you might not be drafted that high. If you switched positions now, you could be a dynamite running back/offensive weapon"? O'Brien could just be wrong in his assessment. That doesn't mean there's malicious intent.

4. The Patriots ended the season of WR Juju Smith-Schuster by playing him on injured reserve. He finished with 11 games played, 29 catches, 260 yards and 1 TD. Jakobi Meyers has 14 games played, 62 catches, 690 yards and 8 total TDs.

S Joshuah Bledsoe was signed to the 53-man roster, and the Patriots elevated TE Matt Sokol and OL Andrew Stueber to the active roster from the practice squad.

5. Bedard's Pick

Fanduel Odds: Bills -14, o/u 40.5

Bedard's 2023 record: 7-8 overall, 9-6 vs. spread.

HOLY HUGE SPREAD BATMAN! I get the Bills have won three straight and the chances are low that the Patriots are going to sweep the Bills this season. But 14 points?!

I'm supposed to be impressed by a three-point win at a crumbling KC? Yes, the Bills blew out the Cowboys at home but Dallas does not travel well. And the Bills only beat Easton Stick and the Chargers by two points! Bailey Zappe can't do that?

The Bills might win, but there's no way in hell I'm giving that team 14 points when Belichick is normally great at avoiding blowouts. The Bills are still not that good. James Cook may be hot, but no one runs on the Patriots, and the Bills still only have one real receiver (Stefon Diggs). The Patriots know how to keep him down (as long as JC Jackson isn't on him). 

Bills 23, Patriots 17.