Bedard: The case for and against Bill Belichick as Patriots coach; Denver intel - CFL game coming?

As the Patriots approach the end of this season and an uncertain future, we'll take a look at the cases for various candidates to lead football operations for years to come.

BILL BELICHICK

Positives

- Unparalleled experience and success. There isn't a situation - on and off the field - he hasn't seen and navigated. He's rebuilt franchises several times over. He's won with a variety of talent levels.

- Obviously with six Super Bowl titles, there's no question that he knows what it takes to compete and win Super Bowl titles. Yes, all six came with Tom Brady (who won one without Belichick), but it takes a team to win a world championship. Maybe the light has gone off for Belichick that he underrated the importance of the QB situation given what has transpired the past four years. In position to land a top draft QB, or possessing enough cap space to land a top free agent QB, the argument could be made that he just needs the right QB.

- All those rings garner a lot of respect from players inside the locker room and possible additions from the outside.

- There is absolutely no one better at knowing what it takes to win that week's game from a gameplanning perspective in all three phases.

- If you had one game to win, Belichick could probably be the universal coach in the NFL to be the head coach for that game.

- He is a rock-steady leader, no matter what is going on with the team. That consistency helps over the course of an entire season.

- He's a brand unto himself. Many New England fans think their team has a chance every game and every season as long as Belichick is on the sidelines - even after this season and recent history (30-41 since Thanksgiving 2019, 28-37 since Brady). 

- Give Belichick the same talent as any team in the league, you'd probably take Belichick.

- Stamina as far as coaching duties go seem to be unchanged, despite him being 71.

- Belichick is 16 victories away from breaking Don Shula's record for wins.

Negatives

- If he still needs total control over football operations, his abilities as a personnel director have slipped into the bottom half of the league, at best.

- As Belichick has gotten older, his motivation to go the extra mile in many areas a team needs to be successful has subsided. He shows zero interest in ever exploring outside ideas/methods as far as assistant coaches and front office personnel. He has shown zero interest in bringing the team's cap calculations into the modern game. His evaluations of players and what he looks for at different positions have not evolved with the modern NFL game. Belichick, for years, has shown zero interest in possibly coaching a talented but troubled star. He'd much rather coach an average talent who takes coaching.

Like an aging NBA big man, Belichick's shooting range in a lot of areas is now a 5-foot circle. In his prime, he would go to halfcourt to give the team an edge in many areas.

- Belichick thinks the QB position is the same as any other and should be treated as such.

- Belichick thinks offense is 1/3rd of the NFL game, same as defense and special teams.

- Belichick has chosen to ignore that special teams snaps are basically a non-factor due to rule changes. He hasn't changed his math in a lot of areas.

- Belichick believes that coaches, scheme and organizational discipline can win a majority of games and talent is very much secondary. 

- Belichick increasingly has stopped wanting to be challenged internally on big decisions. He's become his only counsel.

- Belichick's ability to field a top-flight assistant coaching staff has completely fallen off. The lack of player development, especially on offense, has never been worse.

- As far as the person who speaks for football team, Belichick has never been worse and shows no interest in answering the basic questions that fans have via the media. This doesn't matter when you win, but it does when you've become a losing franchise.

- He has posted three losing seasons in the last four years. He's been to one playoff game since Brady. He hasn't won a playoff game in five years. His overall record without Brady is 82-99.

BOTTOM LINE

If Belichick was a Patriots player who was a Hall of Famer for much of his career but became league average, we all know what he would do. That player would be gone.

Yes, I would entertain Belichick remaining the head coach, but only if he agreed to give up personnel control, and made Jerod Mayo and Bill O'Brien coordinators with total authority over their coaching staffs.

I just don't see any of that happening.

The best thing for the franchise would be a general manager and director of football operations, who has zero ties to Belichick and reports directly to ownership. I just don't see how that works. Belichick could and would easily cause drama by refusing to play certain players picked by the new GM, who perhaps don't fit Belichick's preference.

A general manager who previously worked under Belichick would just be a puppet and figurehead. Nothing would really change, and that would not be in the best interest of the franchise.

Belichick's time as New England's head coach should be over. I look forward to Belichick Day with a statue unveiling. 

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Most significant from this Tom Pelissero report:

• Kraft and Belichick have yet to meet
• Kraft is doing intel work on what to do next, which I have advocated for
• Belichick returning still possible but seems like a long shot

2. Denver intel from a coach who has gameplanned for them:

Offense

• They have a decent OL but it lacks top end power and nasty 
• Payton will do all he can to win the game on offense on 1st and 2nd down.  Lot of scheme stuff…
• 3rd down is where he can’t hide Russ - has to read it out and hope he can hold the ball and make something happen
• Their skill group is overrated - WR Sutton is the best player by far and the TE’s sneak in production.
• “Control” is the big word with this team - if they lose control of the game on the scoreboard - they will be in trouble on both sides - not a pass-first offense and struggle when the opponent can just stick in runs with a lead…
• Sean will try to get control on each set of downs to avoid 3rd down as much as he can - Canadian football approach

Defense:

• Their defense is decent when they get control of the game - can throw packages at you when they know it’s a passing down…CB Pat Surtain is a top 10 corner - not the top of the league though…S Justin Simmons is excellent - closest thing we have today to a true ball-hawking safety with great instincts
• Young edge players are sneaky good - Bonito, Barrett Browning, and Jonathan Cooper - they can all rush. 
• Young WR Mims is good returner - don’t want him with too many chances

3. Congrats to David Andrews on winning the Ron Hobson Good Guy Media Award, giving by the local PFWA members, and for this deserved praise from Belichick:

"Fantastic. Fantastic. He’s as good as I’ve seen honestly,” Belichick told the media during his Friday press conference. “Every day, his performance on a daily basis is really exceptional. Attitude, effort, communication, energy, leadership with younger players, leadership with his peers ... you name it.

“And look, everybody plays a lot of football. You get banged up. You’ve gotta deal with some stuff during the year. He’s shown some toughness to play through that, a lot of mental toughness,” Belichick went on. “He would never come out of practice for a play. We’d have to take him out to kind of help manage some of the bumps and bruises that he has, but I mean, this guy is a warrior.”

4. Roster moves for the Patriots: Conor McDermott (IR) and Hunter Henry were been downgraded to out. OL James Ferentz was signed to the 53-man roster. CB Breon Borders and TE Matt Sokol have been elevated to the active roster from the practice squad.

5. Bedard's Pick

Fanduel Odds: Broncos -7.5, o/u 37

Bedard's 2023 record: 7-7 overall, 8-6 vs. spread.

I think this will relatively close due to the Patriots' ability to run the ball on a bad Denver run defense (last in DVOA). I do worry about the Patriots having nothing to play for after a long plane ride on Christmas Eve. And no Juju or Hunter Henry, and possibly Vederian Lowe getting most of the LT snaps scares me a lot.

Broncos 23, Patriots 17.