Apologize, again, for the delay on this. Didn't get the film until very late on Tuesday, and I'm a day-and-a-half behind.
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While it was another case of good half/bad half for Bailey Zappe against the Broncos, playing perfect football in the second was enough to help deliver a victory in Denver.
By the end of the game, Zappe delivered the best-graded QB game since the final game of the 2022 season against Miami, just barely edging out Mac Jones' first three games of this season.
Yes, it's a low bar, but this chart below, showing the best QB games since Jones' rookie season, illustrates how far things have fallen since Jones had seven better games as a rookie.
There's little question Zappe played well in this game, but after watching the film, the key question is how sustainable is it?
Zappe had the best expected completion differential in the league last week. He was expected to complete 59.8 percent of his passes yet he completed 75.8 percent. It's not black and white what that number means. Either the QB is being pinpoint against great coverage, his receivers are pulling catches out of the rears, or there's a lot of luck involved. Usually it's a combination of all of them, and it is here.
The difference in this game and, say, last week against the Chiefs, or the Chargers, is the Patriots hit five explosive pass plays:
Those five plays accounted for 57 percent of the passing offense. Obviously it's great to have that kind of production — limit turnovers and make explosive plays and you have a pretty good offense. But there's a difference between good QB play and production. The latter could be from scheme (think the 49ers) or luck, as we said.
Let's take a look at those plays, before we get into film analysis from Zappe's first half (-23% rating, two avoidable sacks plus a fumble) and second half (+32%, six plus plays, zero minus):
(By the way, just want to state that two of the most impressive Zappe QB plays from this game are not on this list: 2nd and 9 for 13 yards to DeMario Douglas where Zappe hung in a pocket for a route that took way too long to be run; and the touchdown to Mike Gesicki were he bought time for the route when there was great protection)
3Q 1-10-NE 30 (12:44) B.Zappe pass deep left to D.Douglas to DEN 29 for 41 yards (J.Simmons).
Zappe does a nice job avoiding pressure, which was the best part of his for the most part, but this is a prayer that is equal parts great catch by DeMario Douglas and poor secondary play from the Broncos (which was a big issue in this one).
3Q 2-10-DEN 42 (3:41) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to D.Parker to DEN 12 for 30 yards (P.Surtain).
Out of all the back-shoulder throws Zappe had in the game, this was the best. Good read. Checked at the line, perfect along the sidelines. The one on the final drive was luckier.
1Q 2-20-NE 39 (1:24) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to J.Reagor pushed ob at DEN 33 for 28 yards (P.Locke).
This was right after the second sack and was a really nice QB play. Zappe knew he was going to get Cover 2. And while this was a poor play by the cornerback, Zappe helped him into it by giving a little shoulder shimmy to get him to bite on the under, leaving just enough space to hit Reagor.
4Q 3-3-NE 26 (:47) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to D.Parker to DEN 47 for 27 yards (P.Surtain).
Obviously a huge play in the game. A bit fortunate. The more Zappe puts this on film, the more teams are going to be ready for it.
2Q 1-10-NE 37 (3:19) B.Zappe pass deep left to P.Brown to DEN 43 for 20 yards (J.Cooper).
Great check, good throw, phenomenal catch for Brown on a Patriots staple pass play.
FIRST HALF FILM
SECOND HALF FILM
No NFL offensive coordinator goes into a game saying that throwing a bunch of 50-50 balls is the way we're going to create offense in the game. That's pretty boom and bust, as we've seen since Zappe became the starter. But considering the Patriots don't win much off the line and the protection has usually been shaky (shoutout to the offensive line in this one, it was pretty good for the most part, especially on the biggest plays in the game), a gunslinger like Zappe is about the only chance they have to create offense if the run game isn't hitting, like in this one.
No question, he's the right man for the moment. But this isn't usually sustainable for NFL offenses, but there are always exceptions.
Here are the positional ratings against the Broncos:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Rough first half but tremendous second half as the Patriots mustered just enough offense (two touchdown drives, two drives over 43 yards, eight drives that failed to produce a first down) to win in a tough place to play. ... His pocket manipulation is a little bit of a double-edged sword as it produces some big plays, but also some disasters. Both his early sacks were held over 3.4 seconds – you simply don't have that much time in the NFL. 2.5 seconds is the average. 3.0 seconds is asking a lot. ... On the opening shot play off playaction, he had Douglas on an in cut but didn't see him and Ezekiel Elliott was an option on the outlet. That play but itself could have put the Patriots in a 7-0 hole.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
Ezekiel Elliott's touchdown was obviously spectacular on a busted coverage by the Broncos. ... Would submit that his 6-yard run to start the final drive was every bit as big as the throw to Parker. It should have been a stuffed run. If it was, can't see the Patriots attempting the third-down throw.
Receivers (3.5 out of 5)
As usual, a bit of a mixed bag out of this group. Douglas had some big moments, but on the first third down of the game, Douglas ran a 5-step drop route, while Zappe threw it off 3 steps. Who was right? Can't say but leaning toward Zappe. ... Douglas looked the part of Pats slot receiver in this one but the big issue is can he handle blocking inside in the run game against linebackers and safeties? That's a must and, given his injury issues already, probably not sustainable on an every-down basis. Sometimes they tried Parker doing that, and it did not go well. That limited his overall game as well. ... Gesicki and Brown both had strong games.
Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)
Obviously there were some big issues (James Ferentz was just not ready to go and Trent Brown was a spectator at times), but considering the Broncos blitzed the most-ever this season (a really poor choice by Denver DC Vance Joseph), I thought the protection was really good (Zappe keeping plays alive brought the pressure rate to 35 percent ... it was usually less than that). ... David Andrews, Mike Onwenu and Vederian Lowe (surprise) played very well. Lowe is someone to keep an eye on. ... Atonio Mafi gets worse as the game goes along so conditioning has to be a concern.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
This group was excellent across the board, except for Anfernee Jennings who was victimized on the edge time and time again. Unusual for him since that's normally his forte. ... Christian Barmore was just dominating, even against many double teams and some tough matchups. And he played 60 snaps. Barmore being on the first immediately after the opening fumble speaks volumes about how far he has come as a run defender. That would not have happened earlier in the season. ... One of Keion White's better games. Has started to stack games. ... Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche were great. Still don't know how the refs gave Wise that fumble recovery, but it counts.
Linebackers (3 out of 5)
Jahlani Tavai and Mack Wilson were great and very productive, but Ja'Whaun Bentley had one of the worst games of his career. Missed four tackles, late in some gaps. He looked tired.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
A better quarterback who throws in the rhythm of Sean Payton's passing offense would have killed this secondary, which is why Russell Wilson is going to the bench. It's like watching Derek Carr operate the Raiders and Saints offenses. Just doing his own thing, taking checkdowns. ... Playing more in the box to watch Wilson, as opposed to last week, Kyle Dugger had a very productive game. This was predictable. ... I thought Jalen Mills was terrible in this game as he missed a couple tackles. Not the answer at free safety, or rusty. ... Shaun Wade and Alex Austin continue to be huge liabilities. ... Myles Bryant had five impactful plays, including one on a screen late, but he also missed three tackles.
FIVE UP
Christian Barmore: 12 impactful plays, no minuses. It's every week now.
Josh Uche: A very quiet six QB pressures.
Bailey Zappe: Would be nice to see him play a complete game like this second half.
Deatrich Wise: Never stops coming.
Ezekiel Elliott: What a touchdown.
FIVE DOWN
James Ferentz: Shouldn't have been out there.
Trent Brown: Not sure if it's injury or what, but the film was bad.
Atonio Mafi: Hasn't really improved this season.
Ja'Whaun Bentley: Has been asked to do a ton this season. Might have hit a wall in altitude.
Anfernee Jennings: Outlier in a really strong season.