FOXBOROUGH — Change is coming for the Patriots. There is the obvious - the potential coaching upheaval that certainly will reverberate across the entire league - but it goes far beyond that.
Based on the team's current contractual commitments, they have less than $118 million committed to next season's roster. Considering the salary cap is projected to hit somewhere around $240 million, that's a lot of cash that needs to be spent, especially considering the 90% rule. Salary cap-wise, teams need to spend up to 90% in cash from 2024 to 26. To define further, cash spending is money paid out during the season, whereas cap spending includes money that has been paid but can be prorated over several years.
So think about it this way: if the Pats were to get to the 90% floor for 2024, they would need to shell out almost 100 million in cash (real dollars) for the upcoming season. That can be accomplished in several ways, including signing bonuses. They could also go way over that (again, the 90% rule is the average for this upcoming three-year period), as they did in 2021. You remember that offseason when the Pats spent like drunken sailors - writing out nearly $240 million worth of checks from the Kraft account. I can tell you with 100% certainty that that kind of spending - while accepted by RKK - was not enjoyed despite the team reaching the playoffs the following season; in fact, ownership was lamenting that cash outlay nearly two years later.
Part of the decisions the Pats brass will have to make is dealing with their own free agents. They have, by my count, 22 players needing new deals. They're not bringing all those guys back, but there are choices to be made. In fact, some argue they already made them by not extending the likes of Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche and Mike Onwenu. That leads me to my next exercise.
Pro Football Focus made contractual projections for what they perceive to be the top 100 free agents this offseason. There were five Patriots on the list. Their rating and prediction and my thoughts are as follows:
20. Dugger. The franchise tag, which Over the Cap projects to be $17.2 million, is up from $14.4 mil this season.
BSJ Analysis: No way, no how. I like the player. He is above average coming forward but below average playing any zone defense that forces him to handle the outer half, third, or quarter, which is to say, most coverages. That's problematic, especially when discussing that kind of money. My understanding is there were talks this past offseason that went nowhere. I can't imagine Dugger moving too far off his spot, and I can't imagine this current Pats regime (which obviously may not be next year's regime) bridging that gap. Nor should they. Hello, Marte Mapu and his rookie deal
22. Trent Brown. 2 years, $15 million ($8 mil guaranteed).
BSJ Analysis: This is a reasonable deal, especially for someone who has been very good at times this year. But that would be ignoring Brown's weight problems, attitude problems, and curious comments and social media posts that appear to be directed at the coaching staff, the fans, and, less notably, the media. That's a lot of disloyalty after the team gave him a two-million-dollar bump in training camp. The Pats need to get out of the Trent Brown business ASAP (yes, I'd cut his ass).
25. Onwenu. 4 years, $58 million ($33.25 mil guaranteed)
BSJ Analysis: Yes. Yes. A thousand times, yes. I wrote about Onwenu last week. He's a good guard and an average to above-average tackle (I lean above average, assuming he trains for that in the offseason). But when I consider his age (26. Turns 27 in December), talent, and overall professionalism, that is a fair investment. Of course, I think Onwenu will get even more on the open market, but I'm working with what's in front of me here!
46. Hunter Henry. 2 years, $12.25 million ($8.25 mil guaranteed)
BSJ Analysis: This would be a no-brainer to me. Henry is no longer a top 10 tight end - or is at the bottom of that list - but he's showing he's been durable and reliable and is also a good locker room guy. He's not - nor has even been - a great point-of-attack blocker, but he's serviceable, and his receiving skills have been showcased again now that Bailey Zappe has taken over at QB. It's a lean free-agent class for tight ends, so he'll likely exceed this valuation, but if Henry wants to come back, the Pats should make it happen.
48. Uche. One year, $7.25 million ($6.25 mil guaranteed)
BSJ Analysis: I'll start with this: I don't get the sense that Uche is enamored with the idea of staying in this system (as currently constituted). His role has diminished despite Matthew Judon's injury, which caught NFL folks' attention outside New England. That said, despite Uche's sack totals being down, his pass rush metrics are still impressive, which leads me to believe he will be in high demand. As for the one-year projection, that's not what the player would want, but it makes some sense based on the declining stats. I would be interested in having him back, but I'd be out if the money climbs into eight figures per year for multiple years.
Here are a few more projections I thought you might be interested in:
- Kirk Cousins, two years, $60 million ($37.5 mil guaranteed)
- Tee Higgins, franchise tag (projected $21.6 mil)
- Michael Pittman, franchise tag
- Mike Evans, three years, $69 million ($52.5 mil guaranteed)
- Marquise Brown, One year, $12 million fully guaranteed
- Calvin Ridley, franchise tag
Wide receivers are going to be expensive. Just get used to it. It's the new world order.
