The Celtics are 20-5 after a 5-0 homestand that featured some impressive wins in tough situations. They're playing some of their best basketball in the Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown era, and there is still room to grow.
In fact, we saw some of that growth over the course of the five game homestand. Here’s a look at some interesting stats from the homestand that could signal a change in some early trends.
JRUE HOLIDAY IN THE RESTRICTED AREA
- Last five games: 75% (9-12)
- First 20 games: 56% (28-50)
It always felt weird that Holiday was struggling this much at the rim. There's no real analysis necessary here. He was just missing a lot of easy layups before and now he’s finishing them. He’s taking them at the same rate, he’s just making them now.
There are going to be a lot of these opportunities for Holiday either on cuts, drives, or putbacks. Finishing at the rim is going to cause more overreactions from help defenders, and that's going to open up a lot more passes to the corners and multiple swings for open shots.
JAYLEN BROWN’S PASSING
- Last five games: 27.4 passes made per game, 7.2 potential assists, 12.8 assist points created
- First 20 games: 27.5 passes made per game, 6.5 potential assists, 8.8 assist points created
Some of this is a function of Boston’s 3-point shooting, which is at 41.5% over the past five games. But also, he’s getting guys the ball in good spots.
The passes he’s making are finding the right guys. It’s kind of a work smarter not harder type of thing with Brown, who is giving the ball up before getting into trouble and his passes are finding open guys for easy looks. His assists-to-turnover ratio has gone from 1.32 to 2.09, which isn't exactly lighting up the world, but it’s a significant improvement. His turnovers are down slightly to just 2.2 per game, which is perfectly fine for a high-usage player like Brown.
THIRD QUARTERS
- Last 5 games: 51.9% fg, 30.8 ppg
- First 20 games: 42.3% fg, 25.3 ppg
Third quarters have been a bust for Boston all season long, so to see this much of a change over the past five games is a bit of relief.
Now the question is whether this turnaround is legitimate because one can argue the home/road disparity is more of the issue. Boston is shooting 38.8% in third quarters on the road, and they're starting a four-game west coast swing tonight.
Most importantly, they’ve proven they can do it if they're focused, so let’s hope they can carry that focus on the road.
SAM HAUSER NON-3-POINTERS
- First 10 games: 7.8% of field goal attempts from 2
- Second 10 games: 15.2% of FGA from 2
- Last 5 games: 19.2% of FGA from 2
Why do I love this stat? Because Hauser is now evolving past just a 3-point specialist. The big uptick in his 2-point field goal attempts can be directly tied to fast breaks. The percentage of his points from fast breaks has gone from 5.2%, to 13.5%, to 23.5%. That means units he’s on get defensive stops and they're playing fast … and he’s capable of finishing on the break.
He’s still getting 79.4% of his points from 3-pointers, only an 8% drop from the beginning of the season. As the team evolves, having a player like Hauser whovcan do more than just one thing is incredibly important.
GRABBING CONTESTED REBOUNDS
- Last five games: 34% (14.4 per game)
- First 20 games: 25.8% (12.3 per game)
Anyone can grab the misses where no one else crashes, but the Celtics are seventh in the NBA over the past five games in grabbing the boards where there's a fight.
That means two more stops per game, two more transition opportunities, and two fewer chances at second-chance points.
Oh just two you say? Sure it doesn’t sound like a lot, but the contested rebounds mean someone on the other team is crashing, and that means that player is going to be left behind when the Celtics move the ball, which then means five-on-four or four-on-three opportunities.
Those two chances at putbacks are four points that the opponent isn’t getting and potentially four to six points Boston gets. That's a potential eight to 10 point swing.
How does a team build runs and gain separation? In part, by doing things like this.
It’s only five games, so the small sample size caveat is always attached when looking at things like this. At the same time, we’ve been looking for signs that certain things would eventually turn around and these stats represent that. The key now is carrying that forward, and carrying it on the road, where it’s always tougher to do these little things.
Joe Mazzulla wants to win the margins, and Boston has. They're finding a stride in these little areas. Now they need to build on it to get some separation as the best team in the NBA.