Bedard's Breakdown (Offense): How well did Bailey Zappe grade out vs. the Steelers?

There's little doubt the Patriots looked like a different offense against the Steelers, at least until they got up 21-3, in Bailey Zappe's second start of the season.

Overall, it was a bit of a mixed bag for Zappe and the offense.

The -4.53 expected points added by the defense was only middle of the road (7th-best) for the season. But the -0.10 for the pass offense was the best since the Bills game, which was Mac Jones' last hurrah (+12.03).

How did Zappe grade out? Pretty well overall. 

For the game, his 3.7 rating was the best for a Patriots QB this season since Jones' Week 3 at Jets (6.5). It should also be noted, and there's no coincidence, that Zappe faced a pressure rate of just 17.8% pressure — the third-lowest since the start of '21 season (Zappe's start last year vs. Detroit was 2nd at 15.4%).

Zappe was even better early. At 21-3, Zappe graded out for me with an 11.8. Over an entire game, that would rank sixth-highest since the start of 2021 and highest since Jones had a 20 at Miami in Week 18 '21.

At that point, Zappe had faced just 11.8% pressure. The lowest ever pressure rate since Jones arrived was 5.6 vs. Jax in '21.

As far as why that happened now and for Zappe, I can't answer that. Could it be that Zappe himself was more oblivious to pressure than Jones, especially Jones in recent weeks? That's possible, and there were some reps to support that. Could it be Zappe's teammates play for him more than Jones?

I'm not ruling those factors out, but those answers are just not quantifiable to me. I can only tell you what I see on tape. The Patriots were a better operation, for the most part, in this game. How much of that is Zappe, Bill O'Brien, the opponent, etc? I can't answer that. That's open for interpretation, and everyone will have their own opinion.

All I can do is break down what I liked and didn't like, which we'll do here as Zappe had six plus plays in the game (including five throws) and four minus plays, including an interception that I didn't put squarely on him because the Patriots' lingering execution errors seemed to factor into that. A breakdown of Zappe's day, along with coaches film, unit ratings and three up/down:

PLUS PLAYS

3-9-PIT 25 (12:37) (Shotgun) B.Zappe scrambles left end ran ob at PIT 14 for 11 yards (D.Kazee).

There wasn't any real pressure on this play, Zappe just did a nice job seeing the opening and converting a big third down.

3-7-NE 28 (5:57) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short middle to H.Henry to NE 42 for 14 yards (T.Thompson).
PENALTY on NE-H.Henry, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 28 - No Play

This play was wiped out by a legit OPI call on Henry, but I still gave Zappe a plus because of the throw he delivered and how he didn't react at all to the traffic in front of him, which included David Andrews making three outstanding blocks.

1-10-NE 38 (3:13) B.Zappe pass deep middle to J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 17 yards (J.Porter)

Great job by Zappe climbing the pocket and delivering a strike. Nice work by Smith-Schuster to put his shoulder into the corner and then break inside to create a little separation.

2-7-PIT 8 (14:19) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short middle to H.Henry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Perfect execution. Zappe knew exactly where he was going with the ball before the snap, and looked left to hold the safety. And then delivered a perfect high ball to the back of the end zone.

1-10-PIT 24 (7:43) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to H.Henry for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

I gave Zappe and Henry (phenomenal catch) both plusses on this play, but this play was pretty fortunate because the safety completely botched the play. He initially read it right, but took a bad angle. A good safety either breaks this up or picks it off. Still, it worked out. This was one of those, "No, no ... yes!" plays that I'm guessing O'Brien says, "You got away with it, but don't do that again."

3-7-NE 35 (1:56) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to H.Henry to NE 43 for 8 yards (T.Thompson). P11

Great job by both players converting. Zappe held the ball a beat and delivered a good ball. Nice contested catch by Henry for a big first down before halftime.

MINUS PLAYS

1-10-NE 25 (6:39) B.Zappe pass incomplete deep left to T.Thornton.

This shot play could have been picked off by the safety over the top. Juju Smith-Schuster and Pharoah Brown were wide open over the middle.

2-10-PIT 45 (2:23) B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to J.Reagor

Slant thrown behind Reagor.

3-10-PIT 45 (2:20) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete deep right to J.Smith-Schuster (J.Porter).

This play was almost a disaster. Henry was open. I think Zappe meant to go to Henry but just airmailed the pass. It was either a poor throw to Henry, or a poor decision to go to Smith-Schuster.

1-10-NE 43 (1:09) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short left intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by M.Walker (E.Roberts) at NE 46. M.Walker pushed obat NE 16 for 30 yards (E.Elliott).

Smith-Schuster ran a bad/slow crosser to end up in the same place as Elliott (great hustle on the INT tackle). This wasn't all on Zappe.

NEUTRAL/OPEN TO INTERPRETATION

1-10-NE 37 (14:01) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 26 for 37 yards (D.Kazee).

The play that got things going. Good read, but it's just hard for me to give Zappe a plus on this play since Smith-Schuster basically caught the ball off the back of the defender. Just as easily could have been intercepted or deflected for an incomplete pass. Pretty lucky.

2-7-PIT 11 (11:18) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to E.Elliott for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Wide open pick play thanks to Hunter Henry who was close to committing offensive PI.

3-3-NE 48 (8:29) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short middle to J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 24 for 28 yards (D.Kazee).

Read the defense but this was a wide-open quick pass and not overly complicated to figure out. Smith-Schuster was wide open. Bad defense.

3-11-NE 27 (12:00) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short left to E.Elliott to NE 34 for 7 yards (P.Peterson).

I don't know what Zappe was doing on this play as he was herky-jerky in the pocket with a few different fakes and flinches, but the checkdown was open all day against this defense.

3-2-NE 15 (13:38) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to T.Thornton.

Most would say this was another turnover-worthy play for Zappe but Thornton has to come back harder and toward the QB on this. He faded out of bounds and nearly caused an INT.

Here are the positional ratings against the Steelers:

OFFENSE

Quarterback (3.5 out of 5)

Played really well for a quarter and a half. Held serve the rest of the way. ... His poise in the pocket is his best attribute and a huge upgrade on Jones - at least the one we saw most of the time since the Jets game. ... Once the Steelers decided to play more man, Zappe had more issues picking out a target and pressure became an issue. ... Little question the lack of Steelers pass rush had a huge hand in Zappe being comfortable early. On some reps, Zappe had so much time it was like watching Jalen Hurts behind the Eagles' line.

Running backs (5 out of 5)

Elliott did it all in this game. He was so dangerous after the catch with several broken tackles.

Receivers (3 out of 5)

There was a lot of good out of this group, especially from Henry and Smith-Schuster, but it still was far from perfect: two penalties from Henry, 1.5 stuffs from Brown, half stuff and half interception on Smith-Schuster (poor route), poor route on Thornton and a drop from Ty Montgomery. 

Offensive line (4 out of 5)

Well that was more like it from Mike Onwenu. Had best OL game of the season against the Giants, and then one of the worst against the Chargers — and then he topped it all in owning his matchup against TJ Watt, who most likely was concussed on the first play but he was allowed to play. ... David Andrews had one of the best pass blocking reps you'll ever see, on a play that didn't count.

Don't look now, but Cole Strange is starting to turn a corner a little bit. ... Trent Brown is giving them as much as he can. ... Sidy Sow was the again the weak link but I'm not disappointed in his play. It's more good than bad, and solid for a rookie.

FOUR UP

Ezekiel Elliott: Carried a massive load in this game with relative ease. Even his 3.1 yard carry average was hard yardage.

Mike Onwenu: Easily won his matchup vs. TJ Watt - the biggest component of this game.

Hunter Henry: He lives!

Bailey Zappe: Really good for first 22 minutes. Average the rest.

TWO DOWN

Ty Montgomery: Well, bye.

Sidy Sow: Missed some big blocks and had both sacks.