Bedard: Should Zappe have started earlier, and other questions from an exciting and confounding Patriots victory over Steelers

In an utterly confounding Patriots season, of course they get their third victory in a game that left you equal parts surprised New England didn't win going away since Mitch Trubisky apparently was sick the day they taught QB at QB School, and confused at how the Steelers didn't at least force overtime if not win in a walk-off.

That's the 2023 Patriots ... and Steelers.

If you lose back-to-back December home games to 2-10 teams, shouldn't you automatically be banned from the postseason?

We digress.

Let's deal with some questions that are bound to be asked in the aftermath of the Patriots' 21-18 victory over the Steelers, especially Bailey Zappe's virtuoso (that's for you, Felger) first-half performance (14 of 21, 196 yards, 3 TDs, 136.1 rating).

How did he do that, including bringing Juju Smith-Schuster and Hunter Henry back from the dead?

Well, it's a good question that I won't have a great answer to until I see the film. But my immediate thought as the game was happening was, "Oh crap ... thanks to the Matt Patricia year, I totally forgot that real Patriots offensive coordinators like Josh McDaniels and Bill O'Brien routinely kill this scheme."

In fairness, the Patriots did beat the same Trubisky (5.1 yards per attempt) Steelers 17-14 in Week 2 last year and Jones was pretty good outside a horrible interception (21 of 35, 7.2 YPA, TD) relying heavily on Jakobi Meyers (9 for 95) and ... checks notes ... Nelson Agholor (6 for 110, including a 44-yard touchdown that looks familiar):

INT:

Anyways ... as far back as I remember, the Patriots' offense — namely Tom Brady — has had its way with the Steelers defense. In the matchup between two schemes that haven't changed much in decades, the Patriots' offense has easy answers to any test Pittsburgh throws at them. McDaniels had the cheat code, and he passed it on to O'Brien. The Patriots dipped back into their bag of tricks in the first half. 

The best example came on 3rd and 3 with 8:29 left in the second quarter. Steelers had five on the line, but dropped out two into coverage while bringing a safety as the fourth rusher. This is a simple zone exchange as old as Dick LeBeau. Zappe saw it the whole way, did a quick three-step drop before the rush was even there and Smith-Schuster was wide open for the second-longest gain of the game.

This might as well have been 2002 (30-14), 2004 (41-27), 2007 (34-13), 2013 (55-31), 2016 (36-17), 2019 (33-3) ... you get the idea. This scheme is so old and tired. If you don't get home with pressure, passing games are too good to play this soft zone behind it.

So that institutional knowledge definitely helped. As did the Steelers coming out in a bit of a funk, maybe because their scheme is bad, and having TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith going in and out doesn't help either.

But Zappe was also on a heater. Smith-Schuster catching that first underthrown ball for 37 yards probably gave Zappe more confidence. That's how the game works. If that's DeVante Parker (addition by subtraction), it might be tipped up for an interception. Zappe's touchdowns to Hunter Henry were really good throws and terrific catches. 

As Mac Jones said after the Colts loss: "To make people believe, you've got to be better."

Zappe's better (although I was surprised his Completion Percentage Above Expectation was "only" +4.8). They believe.

Why didn't it continue in the second half, when Zappe was 5 of 7 for 44 yds, INT and a sack?

It's football ... and water finds its level, and I don't mean Zappe. I mean a 2-10 football team that is offensively challenged.

After being embarrassed in the first half, the Steelers seemed to ditch the zone concepts and went to more man coverage. Apparently, the Steelers just discovered the Patriots receivers can't separate. There wasn't much open and the pressure started to become more of a factor since Zappe had to hold the ball longer.

Did The Two Bills decide to go conservative?

They definitely did in the fourth quarter — as long as the Patriots didn't vomit on themselves, Trubisky was not scoring 22 points — so I understand that. 

But the Patriots got 16 yards on their first play of the second half ... and then Conor McDermott's holding penalty short-circuited that drive.

After picking up a first down on the second drive, Zappe threw his interception forcing a ball into tight coverage. That definitely spooked them a bit. But then again, it was 21-10 in the fourth quarter the next time they touched the ball. 

I will say, I think there was a route error that factored into the interception and it may absolve Zappe. I think Smith-Schuster was going to settle in the zone but Elliott was stopped in the same area, probably on error. Smith-Schuster then tried to find more space and it was FUBAR. Shocking, another route error.

Should they have just let Zappe air it out and pressed the issue?

I actually wouldn't have had many issues with that. I think Zappe, especially with his college experience throwing it all over the joint, is more comfortable pressing the issue.

But Belichick's just trying to win a game. And was going against Trubisky. Why risk it?

Zappe seems to have changed the air around the team, no?

Yes and no. It wasn't that great last week after the Chargers game when he started and got shutout. It was much better today, obviously. I do think going down for the first opening drive score of the season brought some confidence and that carried forward for a while. 

But, look, nobody is happy if you lose. The Patriots won so they should be happy. I don't think that's Zappe-specific.

"Locker rooms are fun when you win," Andrews said. "You have fun by winning. That's what's fun."

I mean, just remember the scene after the Patriots beat the Bills.

Should Zappe have started earlier?

Yes, and not because of this game. It was clear Jones was done after the Colts game. Zappe should have started against the Giants coming out of the bye at the very least.

Prior to that? I think that's tough to argue.

Jones played winning football in losses to the Eagles and Dolphins - two of the best teams in the league. They beat the Jets. Jones obviously was terrible against the Cowboys and Saints. I guess you could make the argument there, but you're going to start a guy that you just cut about five weeks prior?

Lost to the Raiders, but then Jones beat Josh Allen and the Bills with a great fourth quarter ... buying him more time. He reverted back to form against the Dolphins and you could have made the case, but the entire operation was a mess. The Commanders' loss was about the end of my rope. I would have done it then, but I would see waiting until after the Colts and the bye. Starting him against the Giants was just wrong.

Was the operation a mess because of Jones? Certainly looked better with Zappe. The answer to that reminds me of that scene in JFK with David Ferrie: "Oh man, why don't you f***in' stop it? Shit, this is too f***in' big for you, you know that? Who did the president, who killed Kennedy, f*** man! It's a mystery! It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma! The f***in' shooters don't even know! Don't you get it?"

Yeah, Bedahd, there should have been a camp competition, right kid?

Some will want to go all the way back to training camp. Contrary to popular opinion thanks to an overzealous radio producer who enjoys taking things out of context, I was never opposed to a quarterback competition, even though I think Jones deserved the first shot as the first-round pick. If Zappe outplayed him, so be it. I gladly would have told you that. But that did not happen. Zappe never mounted a challenge, for whatever reason. That's just a fact, as illustrated by his release, which surprised me - he had risen to solid backup/spot starter in 2022 for me and one summer under a new OC was going to change that. Speaking of that, and for our favorite radio producer ... there was never a quarterback competition and there still isn't a quarterback competition because one guy just broke and lost his job.

And on a related note .. how about the little story Amazon's Kaylee Hartung relayed during the broadcast?

“Zappe said it was a wake-up call when he got cut by the Patriots in camp,” Hartung said. “And yet even as he signed with their practice squad, the very next day he told (college offensive coordinator Zach) Kittley, ‘Trust me, I’ve got this. Eventually, I’ll be the starter.'”

How about the balls on Zappe to say that after he got cut, let alone what he was intimating about Jones?

Maybe that's the difference: Zappe's big brass balls, and Jones' own shortcomings in that area.