After tonight's slog - to be kind - against the Steelers, the odds are strong that we are looking at the final four games of the Bill Belichick era in New England.
There's no doubt it was glorious. But all things must and do come to an end. If Tom Brady can end his career in a Buccaneers jersey, then Belichick sure as heck can finish his career leading another team.
Do I think Belichick can save his job between now and Jan. 8, the Monday after the season finale? Not really, but never say never. The Krafts don't want to have to part ways with Belichick, let alone fire him, with RKK eyeing the Hall of Fame. But it may indeed come to that.
Am I 100 percent against Belichick returning? If the organizational structure stays the same? Absolutely. He drove the car off the road, and seems to have no good ideas on how to get it back on. A sizable rebuild is in the offing, never mind using the first or second overall pick in the draft. And nothing he's done since 2018 indicates he can execute on that front any better than his offense the past two seasons.
But Belichick is still a damn good coach. He still knows exactly how his team needs to play that week to win a game. Just about every week, they're in a position to do just that. It's just his personal failings as the man in charge of everything Patriots football has put them in this position at 2-10, losers three out of the past four seasons, and 29-40 since Thanksgiving 2019.
Yes, I would be interested in Belichick finishing his career here, just like the Krafts. But there are conditions he would have to agree to and execute for that to happen. Almost all of them are a pipe dream with a 72-year-old head coach/GM, but this is the only way I see Belichick continuing on as a success for himself and the franchise:
1. Belichick must be an open book and take complete responsibility - in detail - for the Patriots' failures since the end of the 2021 season in front of the media in a press conference that is only finished when all the questions have been asked and answered.
Chief among the questions:
- Why did you let Brady walk out the door?
- Why didn't you get his replacement lined up again after trading Jimmy Garoppolo?
- What makes you think this offensive scheme can function in today's game with today's players without Brady and/or Josh McDaniels?
- Why did you not have adequate replacements for the offensive staff when McDaniels went to Vegas?
- Why did you think it was right to put Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in charge of the offense? How big a mistake was that?
- Why didn't you let Bill O'Brien hire his own offensive staff?
- Why did Mac Jones go from second in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting to the bench not even two years later? What in your decisions caused that to happen?
- Do you dislike Jones? Did you want to draft him? Put your name on it or not.
- What do you think constitutes good offense in today's NFL?
- Do you really think DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and Juju Smith-Schuster are good NFL receivers?
- Why didn't you just give Jakobi Meyers the Raiders' contract?
- Why haven't you replaced James White when players like him were so valuable to your championship teams?
- What makes you think you can win with defense in today's NFL?
- Why do you continue to overemphasize special teams, and why is your unit so bad?
- Contractual $2 million bonus question: Explain the Malcolm Butler decision in Super Bowl LII.
(By the way, if you think this exercise has anything really to do with the media, you're an infantile Billbo. And, no, I'm spelling out the point of this exercise. Figure it out.)
2. Belichick must let the Krafts hire the general manager and that person would have total authority over the roster, including the draft and on gameday.
They don't necessarily have to hire from outside the family, but the GM would report directly to the Krafts and not Belichick.
Top candidates: Dave Zeigler, Jon Robinson, Eliot Wolf and Patrick Stewart.
The GM would decide what to do with the second overall pick, and every single draft pick. They would have an unlimited budget in free agency and the ability to trade anyone on the roster. They shop for the groceries and shape the team that Belichick would then have to make work.
3. O'Brien gets total authority over his offensive coaching staff, a heavy say in the quarterback and Mac Jones' future, and autonomy on his personnel, gameplan and playcalls.
If that means eating money, then so be it. It's his offense. He's the chef. He gets his sous chefs - and ingredients.
4. Jerod Mayo is named defensive coordinator and assistant head coach.
If he's the successor, then let him carry some of the burden. Steve Belichick can remain linebackers coach, but Mayo is in charge of that unit. If he wants his own staff, he has the ability to do that as well.
5. The GM hires the special teams coordinator.
If he wants to keep Joe Judge, that's his call.
________________
I can't see Belichick agreeing to any of those conditions, let alone one.
That is not in the best interest of this football. Those conditions are, and they would be for Belichick as well if he was capable of looking in the mirror.
He made this mess. He needs a lot of help to get out of it, whether he realizes that or not.
He either accepts that, or he can finish elsewhere.
_________________
Here are the positional ratings against the Chargers:
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Completely dominated against the run, but the Chargers have never been imposing on that front - especially with center Corey Linsley out of the lineup due to injury. Backup Will Clapp was awful in this game, and Davon Godchaux was the beneficiary. ... Christian Barmore continued his domination against the run and the pass. ... Keion White was largely a non-factor, as was Anfernee Jennings. ... Josh Uche continues to put together extremely efficient and impactful games, but when if he's not on the field that much, what does it matter? Uche hasn't played more than 19 snaps since Oct. 8th. Yes, that has to do with the Patriots not leading very much, but there has to be a way to get him on the field more. This defense doesn't create enough negative plays that aren't unforced errors or dumb playcalls by the opponent (Chargers had two awful calls in this game). ... The pass rush is just not good enough, and the blitzes are not working. Justin Herbert was better when he was blitzed (66.7%, 7.3 YPA) than he was when the Patriots played coverage (56%, 5.0). Herbert had zero turnover worth plays in this one. Need pressure to do that.
Linebackers (4.5 out of 5)
Not many complaints about this group. ... Mack Wilson (PBU, hurry, stuff/TFL in 28 snaps) continues to be a pleasant surprise of late.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
The secondary was bailed out by six drops by the Chargers, including three that would have been big plays, and some uncharacteristic inaccuracy from Herbert in the wet conditions. This could have been a lot worse and not close. ... The Patriots now have the 11th overall defense and 23rd passing defense in DVOA. That's not a mistake. ... Kyle Dugger had one of his typical mental lapses and completely blew the coverage on 27-yard reception where the Patriots were in Tampa 2 and Dugger drifted way too much to the middle. Easy pickings for Herbert. .... Myles Bryant gave up the clinching 27-yard reception, but Herbert was unbothered with 3.57 seconds to throw. ... Marte Mapu was completely lost on a 26-yard reception that sent him to the bench with just three snaps. ... Thank goodness for Jonathan Jones, who was terrific. ... JC Jackson was better, but benefitted from a big Quentin Johnston drop (where Johnston jogged across the field as well). Nice first-round pick.
THREE UP
Christian Barmore: If he wasn't playing like this, the Patriots would have almost no pass rush most weeks.
Jonathan Jones: Keenan Allen wasn't healthy, but this was still good work.
Josh Uche: #Free55
THREE DOWN
Marte Mapu: Talk about a letdown this year. He seems to be regressing by the week.
Anfernee Jennings: Zero pressures in this game after feasting last week. Keion White wasn't much better (his pressure was borderline and late in the down), but at least he did something.
Kyle Dugger: He wasn't bad, but that blown coverage is inexcusable for a player of his stature four years into the league.