Signing just one of baseball’s top tier free agents in and of itself would represent a significant shift in direction for the Red Sox.
But why not make it two? Better yet, why not bring in the top two free agents on the market? If only those two players were linked together in some way… such as if they were former teammates somewhere or come from similar backgrounds.
Alright, I’ll drop the act. Yes, I’m talking about signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Both of them.
First of all, could they? And secondly… should they?
Heading into 2024, the Red Sox have just eight players currently signed to contracts (non-arbitration) on their major league roster accounting for nearly $130 million (according to Spotrac). The luxury tax threshold for next season is $237 million, which leaves a bit over $100 million for John Henry & Co. to play with.
Obviously, Ohtani and Yamamoto are going to be expensive — particularly Ohtani. We’ve consistently heard projections north of $500 million for a long-term deal for Ohtani. Jon Heyman at the New York Post writes that he anticipates Ohtani will sign for 10 years and $600 million.
*Six hundred million dollars* … that’s a lot of money, which of course breaks down to an AAV of $60 million per year. Last season, the Oakland A’s spent just under $57 million to field their baseball team (which, clearly, was an overpay…) while the Baltimore Orioles spent just over $60 million (but pretty good value there).
If the Red Sox are only planning to spend up to and not over the luxury threshold, signing Ohtani alone could account for around 60 percent of that roughly $107 million stockpile (although you can always backload a deal to give yourself room to work with in the earlier years of the deal). Still, no matter how they work the numbers, paying Ohtani would take up a significant amount of salary space.
Then let’s add Yamamoto into the mix (whose agent said this week that he wants to play with other Japanese players, by the way…). Obtaining the 25-year-old right-hander’s services is projected to cost over $200 million (plus the posting fee to his Orix Buffaloes in the Nippon Professional Baseball league). MLBTradeRumors.com believes Yamamoto will fetch a total of $225 million over nine years — which translates to an AAV of $25 million.
All told, we’re looking at least $700 million and around $85 million per year… for two players. Now that is definitely *not* good value.
But the Red Sox shouldn’t be in the good-value business. They should be in the “win World Series championships” business — like they used to be. There’s no denying that signing both Ohtani and Yamamoto catapults them into contender status.
There is one MLB team considering this right now, and unfortunately, it isn’t the Red Sox (as far as we know). Per Heyman on MLB Network, the Los Angeles Dodgers “are the one team really thinking maybe we can sign both Yamamoto and Ohtani.”
But the Red Sox would certainly be able to match the Dodgers dollar for dollar in any bidding war. It’s simply a matter of how much Henry wants it and if he’s willing to spend up to and over the tax.
What used to make this whole thing work so well was when ownership would overreact to a bad season by spending a lot of money in free agency, then a few years later if some of the players weren’t working out, they would ship them off and eat some of the money. When you’re the Red Sox, you can afford to hand out some bad contracts.
At least, that’s how it used to be in the good old days…
I’m all in on the prospect of signing both Ohtani and Yamamoto. Hey, it’s only money right? If Henry’s ownership is looking to make a splash and send a message that the Red Sox are back (as it seems they are intending to this offseason), then why not hand out the biggest contract in baseball history and sign the top starter on the market?
Part of the issue in recent years has been that it hasn’t felt like Henry’s team was “all in” on winning a championship every year anymore. This move would certainly appease fans en masse and quell the uproar — even if it doesn’t lead to a title right away.
But it would be one heck of a first step…
Being thankful for Fenway Park
We in Red Sox Nation have had plenty to be thankful for in recent years — namely those four World Series championships. Of course, we’ve had next to nothing to be thankful about in the past five seasons, but that’s a rant for another day…
One of the things we should still be thankful for, though, is Fenway Park. It is without question the best ballpark in baseball. No, its amenities are not the most modern (and I still maintain that I have permanent knee damage from jamming myself into those wooden seats growing up), but it melds the charm of the old with enough of the new thanks to some shrewd renovations over the years.
Truly, the Red Sox wouldn’t be the Red Sox anymore without Fenway.
Sitting in that press box overlooking Fenway and the Boston skyline is far and away the best seat in sports. It’s something I am grateful for year after year.
But the main reason I’m thankful for it right now is that it is still attracting the top talent in the game. We’ve heard about Ohtani’s affinity and fondness for playing at Fenway. Part of my job requires me to be in both clubhouses after games, and I am constantly hearing visiting reporters ask players about what it was like playing at Fenway. To a man, they almost always have something glowing to say about it — usually something like “it’s a dream come true.”
At a time when the business of Red Sox baseball has been tarnished of late by a lack of desperation to win, the business of Fenway Park is still flourishing. Dollars and cents are what ultimately matter most for players, as it should, but the allure of playing at Fenway is still something that can help tip the scales in the Red Sox’s favor.
Exploring India to Boston
One of the more prominent names on the trade market we’re starting to hear more about is Jonathan India. According to Jim Bowden at The Athletic, the Red Sox have checked in with the Cincinnati Reds as they search for an everyday second baseman for 2024 and beyond.
The 26-year-old and former National League Rookie of the Year is entering the prime of his career and figures to provide some pop in the lineup after topping 17 homers in two of his first three big league seasons.
India is entering his first season of arbitration and is projected by Spotrac to have a base salary of $3.2 million, so he would certainly be an affordable option whose best years should be yet to come.
Then there’s his defense, which is going to be the biggest knock against his candidacy as the next Red Sox second baseman. He committed double-digit errors in his first two MLB seasons and nine last year, which ranked first among qualifying NL second basemen.
After playing all 148 games at second base in his rookie season, India spent time as a DH in each of the past two seasons.
India would give the team another elusive right-handed bat, but if the idea at second is to prioritize defense, they might want to look elsewhere.
Rest in peace, Tom Larson
While primarily known for his beard stunt with the Bruins (in 1981, he promised to shave his beard when the B’s won the Stanley Cup… and they didn’t do so for another 30 years. But after 2011, he followed through), Tom Larson spent time covering the Red Sox as a studio host in the early days of NESN.
Larson also served as the sports director at WHDH Radio and was named Boston’s best TV sportscaster by Boston magazine in 1983. He retired from broadcasting in 2007.
I never knew Larson, and as a 32-year-old I cannot say that I am all too familiar with his work, but I am always grateful for the titans of Boston sports media and those who helped pave the way so that people like myself could have a chance to work in the best sports city in America.
Rest in peace, Tom.
(Note: Larson’s real name was Lanny Lee Larason, but he became “Tom Larson” when he began his sports journalism career in Boston.)