Josh Uche has yet to come close to matching his numbers from a season ago when he emerged as a closer coming off the edge. His 11.5 sacks dwarfed his first two years combined (4 total sacks), and the former University of Michigan product put himself in line for a total megabucks raise entering this, the fourth and final year of his rookie contract.
Instead, Uche has dealt with some physical ailments, including knee, ankle, and toe injuries that cost him a pair of games. He's also attracted more attention, with Matthew Judon going down in the Cowboys game in week four. Those factors and the Pats' inability to play from in front for most of the year had held his numbers down.
"Yeah, I'm not sure how much it's impacted him," said Steve Belichick of Uche's numbers taking a hit without Judon. "He missed a couple games there - however many weeks ago that was - and that probably impacted him more, his production more, than losing Judon since he wasn't out there either.
"But no issues with Josh. He's continued to improve… The stats don't always tell the full story. Sometimes those stats come in bunches."
Next Gen Stats still loves Uche. His "positive rush rate" ranks number one amongst edge rushers with 75 pass-rush snaps (78.4%). He also has 20 QB pressures, which hasn't equated to sacks, but he still can impact the passing game. That's why Uche had several teams call on him at the trade deadline, and at least a couple - Jacksonville and Seattle - think they were close to a deal.
I spoke with one AFC exec who believes Uche will be a "man in demand" this offseason. Despite assertions that the 25-year-old wants to stay, the feeling is that he will "happily" head into free agency, looking for an opportunity to play more and do so in a system more conducive to his skillset and body type. It's an interesting dice roll on that front, as Uche was also a part-time player in college. But the money will probably be more than you think. Spotrac estimates Uche's market value at $58 million over four years, slating him as football's 13th highest-paid outside linebacker. That's not the be-all, end-all projection-wise, but something to consider. The Pats will have the money, but unless the organization's thoughts on value change, that would seem too rich for their blood.
By the way, Giants QB Tommy DeVito has been sacked 20 times in three games, so Uche has a chance to get fat on Sunday.
OH, CANADA
The Steelers finally did the damn thing, sending offensive coordinator Matt Canada packing. You can understand why. Pittsburgh is 28th in scoring (16.6 PPG) and total offense (280 YPG) and has never once surpassed 400 yards in the 44 games coordinated by Canada. Second-year QB Kenny Pickett is going backward. He last threw for over 160 yards in a game a month ago and has just six touchdown passes. That's the fewest TDs by any player to start each of his team's first 10 games of a season since Ryan Tannehill (as a rookie) in 2012.
Not bad enough for you? Try this on for size. Pickett has thrown for just 13 TDs on 670 attempts - 1.9% of his throws. That's the lowest pass TD percentage in NFL history among all players with 500+ career pass attempts, and puts him in the same class as Ryan Leaf (2.1%), Brady Quinn (2.2), Zach Wilson (2.2) and David Klinger (2.2), all first-round busts.
Mike Tomlin says Pickett will remain the starter.
"This guy will do any and everything," said Tomlin. "He works extremely hard. … There's such a thing as football justice. Those guys usually get what they're looking for. That's why I remain consistently optimistic about the trajectory of his growth and development."
When asked if these next seven games could make or break Pickett as the number one guy in Pittsburgh (seems familiar), Tomlin took an interesting viewpoint (per CBS Sports).
"I'm focused on this week in terms of the development of Kenny. We're not urinating on the fire, man."
Ok, although we don't need any more wildfires, so if it's gotta be done, Mike, do it. I'm just saying.
SLEEPING GIANT AWAKENS?
It's hard not to notice Josh Allen throwing for three touchdowns just days after the Bills fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey. Allen took plenty of the blame for Dorsey's dismissal, but something had been missing with that unit beyond Allen's penchant for turning the ball over.
Dorsey didn't run the ball enough for Sean McDermott's liking, but the playing calling this year seemed disjointed at times, and too often, Allen was forced to put on the cape and play Superman just to extend a series.
Instead, Allen found a bunch of easy completions early in the game and then, when needed, morphed into superhero mode. During the game, a sideline camera caught him yelling, "I feel like I'm (bleeping) back."
That was part of interim OC Joe Brady's charge - to get his signal caller feeling damn near invincible again.
"I just wanted him to be Josh Allen," said Brady on Monday. "The fun, the excitement that he kind of plays with - like I feed off of it. At the end of the day, man, this is a game we're supposed to have fun. I have a ton of fun coaching; I know our guys have a lot of fun playing.
"Not that he wasn't having fun before, but I think you saw it a little bit last night. I think the guys obviously fed off of it, as well."
Allen and the rest of the team must be at their best going forward. At 6-5, they have little room for error, and traveling to Philly this weekend to play the one-loss Eagles, then, after the bye, visit the Chiefs before hosting the Cowboys.
HOT CHICKEN AND HOT SEAT IN NASHVILLE
Bill Belichick isn't the only one fielding questions about job security in recent weeks. Mike Vrabel - Patriots Hall of Famer - has seen his Titans drop 14 of their last 17 games dating back to last year. That includes last weekend's one-sided debacle in Jacksonville.
"I don't try to concern myself with that," said Vrabel about his future with Tennessee. "I really am focused on these players. I hurt for them. I played for 14 years, won some games, won some championships. I am frustrated for the players, I am disappointed for the players. I want them to have success. I know how hard they work and what they put into it, so that's what my focus is."
"I'll let you guys fire me each week or not. I appreciate your question. I will always understand that. We have to improve, and we have to win; those are things we have to do."
Considering Vrabel was given more responsibility after GM Jon Robinson was fired midseason a year ago, and his relationship with owner Amy Strunk, it seems a stretch to think a bad calendar year or so could send Vrabel to unemployment. But Strunk had just handed out a contract extension to Robinson (and Vrabel) in February of 2022 and then sent the former Pats front office exec packing in December of the same year. So you're saying there's a chance?
Vrabel is 51-41 in six seasons with the Titans. I will guarantee if he does get fired, he won't be unemployed long. He would also be an intriguing candidate in New England should the head coaching position open.
NERD NUMBERS
- Belichick is 12-0 as the Patriots' head coach (since 2000) when facing the worst scoring offense in the NFL entering that week (NYG is last in 2023, scoring 13.5 PPG). Belichick's defenses have only allowed 13.9 PPG in those dozen games.
- The Browns are on pace to become the first team to allow fewer than 250 total YPG since the 2008 Steelers (237.2). That Pittsburgh team had the AP Defensive Player of the Year (James Harrison) and won Super Bowl XLIII over the Cardinals.
- Myles Garrett (13 sacks) would be the fourth player since 1982 to lead the NFL in sacks while playing for the #1 total defense. SF Nick Bosa did so in 2022 (won Defensive Player of the Year). HOF Chris Doleman did so with the Vikings in 1989. HOF Richard Dent did so in 1985 with the Bears (they won Super Bowl XX). Doleman (Keith Millard) & Dent (Mike Singletary) did not win Defensive Player of the Year that season, but one of their teammates did.
- The Chiefs are averaging 5.3 PPG in the 2nd half in 2023 (Last in NFL). That would be the fewest by a team since 2013 (Tampa Bay at 5.2). KC has scored 5 offensive touchdowns in the 2nd half in 2023 (Tied for fewest with the Jets).