It's Week 12 and the Patriots have fallen to the point where they aren't sure who is going to start at quarterback against the Giants. It appears that Mac Jones will start, but Bill Belichick said this week that he told all the players that everyone should be ready.
At this point, would it shock anyone if Jones is in a platoon with Bailey Zappe, or at least a very quick hook, similar to the Bears game last year? Is it out of the realm of possibility that Will Grier could be active and not just the emergency third quarterback? No, even though that's unlikely because Belichick will want his defense and special teams with enough bodies.
Whatever happens, it's a stunning and quick decline into an embarrassment for the Patriots offense.
Just two years ago, the Patriots were ascending on offense — they were as good or better than Tom Brady's 2019 group — with a rookie quarterback who was second in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Now that same player looks completely and utterly lost.
Why is it so bad and now?
Over the last two weeks, we have talked to five league executives — two with deep Patriots ties and three from other teams — to get their opinion on Jones and the Patriots offense.
To provide proper context, you have to go back to Jones' rookie season. Aside from record (12-4 to 10-7), the end result was not all that different from Brady's final season. In 2021, the Patriots finished 6th in points and 15th in yards. In 2019, the Patriots were 7th in points and 15th in yards. Many of Jones advanced analytics in '21 (adjusted yards/attempt, passer rating, QBR, completion percentage, TD percentage) were better than Brady's in '19. The Patriots' explosive pass-play rate was 2nd in the league.
Was Jones stage-managed tightly by Josh McDaniels? Yes. Was it to the point that Jones was basically a puppet and McDaniels was pulling the strings? No. That simply did not happen.
Sources pointed to several games during Jones' rookie campaign to show his promise: his first start against Miami, showdowns with Brady's Bucs and the Cowboys, blowout wins over the Browns, Titans and Jaguars when the Patriots needed to throw to get leads.
Brian Flores and Josh Boyer threw the kitchen sink at Jones in his debut with a blitz rate of 36%. The Patriots did not curl up in a ball and hope to survive. They threw a lot of counter-punches and shots of their own. Jones was 29 of 39 for 281 yards and a TD (102.6 rating) compared to Tua Tagovailoa's 16 of 27 for 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (79.6 rating). The Patriots' pass offense had the highest EPA on the team (+10.15). It was the defense (-10.15 pass) and Damien Harris' fumble that let them down. The Dolphins' staff came away immensely impressed by Jones.
Stat lines from Brady's return to Gillette, a huge pressure cooker for Jones:
Brady: 22 of 43, 269 yards, 70.8 rating
Jones: 31 of 40, 275 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 101.6 rating
What people forget about that game is the Patriots' offense was all on Jones in that game. The Patriots rushed 8 times for -1 yard. They threw 42 times for 320 yards. 16 of their 20 first downs came via the air (three others were by penalty).
In the Dallas game, Dak Prescott absolutely embarrassed the Patriots' defense to the tune of 36 of 51 for 445 yards and 3 TDs. While Jones did throw a pick-six, his 75-yard toss on the next throw gave the Patriots a 29-26 lead with 2:11 left. They lost in overtime while Jones posted a 118.9 pass rating.
Against the Browns, the Patriots went up 24-7 at halftime while Jones completed 13 of 15 passes for 134 yards and 2 TDs (143.5 rating).
While the Titans were missing several key pieces on offense, Jones finished 23 of 32 for 310 yards and 2 TDs (123.2 rating). Before it became a blowout, the Patriots led 16-13 at halftime while the backs rushed 8 times for 14 yards. Jones was 15 of 21 for 206 yards, a TD and 118.4 rating.
Does any of that sound anything like the Mac Jones that we see today? Does that sound like a quarterback who can't play in this league?
Was it perfect? No. Was Jones great? No. But the Patriots had arrived at a place where Jones was playing with confidence, the guys around him were good enough, and the coaches trusted Jones to execute the gameplan.
"He was absolutely a competent quarterback, and not just a spectator you needed to protect," said one source. "They put a lot on him. To be thrown into a team that wasn't that talented with a bunch of free agents all playing together for the first time, it was pretty good."
What has happened? Aside from the 2022 season, which everyone stipulates was a disaster and on Bill Belichick for tabbing Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense — even Belichick has admitted that privately — league executives point to coaching and personnel for the reason why Jones and the offense has fallen off.
League executives are unanimous in the opinion that Jones is a starter in this league, and can be a good one.
It's just everything else is wrong around him, and that has led to Jones to the point of having no confidence.
Coaching
One of the biggest areas pointed out where the Patriots have struggled is with the coaching staff. Yes, we're a long way from 2004 with Charlie Weis (OC), Dante Scarnecchia (OL), McDaniels (QBs), Ivan Fears (RB), Brian Daboll (WRs) and Jeff Davidson (OL/TEs).
No one is expecting a group like that, but the falloff just from 2021 has been steep.
In 2021, Jones had the benefit of:
Josh McDaniels, veteran coordinator and QB coach
Ivan Fears, veteran running backs coach
Bo Hardegree, former college QB with 8 years experience NFL coaching QBs - OC for Vegas now
Mick Lombardi, veteran WRs coach who had been with 2 other teams - former OC for Vegas
Nick Caley, five years coaching TEs in NE - now with Rams and future OC
Carm Bricillo, studied for a year under Scarnecchia - Vegas oline coach and well respected
Since then...
OC: Matt Patricia and now, finally, Bill O'Brien
QBs: Joe Judge and Evan Rothstein, no experience
RBs: Vinnie Sunseri, studied for a year under Fears
TEs: Caley then Will Lawing, experienced coach
WRs: Troy Brown
OL: Patricia/Billy Yates, now Adrian Klemm who didn't last a season as Steelers o-line coach
Which players, outside Rhamondre Stevenson and perhaps Hunter Henry, have improved since their 2021 campaign? (Even Henry is a bit of a leap of faith because his production has declined every season, but that's more about the opportunities than his own level of play.)
In every other previous year, you could count on Patriots players getting better over the course of the season, and then going to another level in Year 2. Those days are over, and you can point to coaching.
O'Brien has been forced to deal with the OC and QB position by himself. I couldn't find a person around the team who privately spoke well about the coaching prowess of Klemm or Brown. The universal opinion is the coaching has fallen off as steeply as the talent and that too much has fallen on O'Brien, who was only allowed to bring one trusted aide in Lawing with him.
"You gotta have a staff that can improve and develop the level of play of the players," said one source. "And I just don't see a bunch of guys that have gotten better."
Personnel
In Jones' rookie season, Jakobi Meyers went to another level at 83 catches, Kendrick Bourne got better while catching 55 passes, and Hunter Henry had 50 and nine touchdown catches. Plus, the backfield of Stevenson and Harris was legit with 1500 yards and 20 touchdowns. Even eventual washouts like Nelson Agholor (37 catches, 3 TDs) and Jonnu Smith (28 catches) weren't complete disasters, certainly not in the first year in a new system.
The offensive line of Isaiah Wynn, Ted Karras, David Andrews, Shaq Mason and Trent Brown was solid and consistent for the most part.
The quartet of Stevenson, Henry, Bourne and Meyers were something to build off of with Jones.
Since then, it's been a disaster. Outside of Stevenson, instead of production increasing (the norm in New England), everyone's numbers declined in '22. Smith and Agholor were washed out of Foxboro. Bourne was in the doghouse. Meyers was allowed to leave in free agency.
No draft picks were spent replacing Wynn and Brown at tackle, or addressing the tight end position.
Meyers was replaced by Mike Gesicki and Juju Smith-Schuster (who was given $10 million a year). DeVante Parker was brought here and extended. Tyquan Thornton can't stay on the field. Bourne was in the doghouse at times this year as well.
"It's so slow — slow team, slow offense," said one source. "Juju makes them slower. Parker makes them slower. Pharoah Brown makes them slower. Ezekiel Elliott makes them slower. They're just slow."
Said another source: "What was the decision-making process around Parker and Gesicki? Those players are becoming dinosaurs now. None of the best players in the league are 50/50 contested ball guys anymore. It's not 1995. It's 2023, man. You need some separation. You need some guys that can run you don't need big, slow lanky guys that can't get open. Nobody's playing with those guys. That's not who Stefon Diggs is. That's not who Tyreek Hill is. That's not who Jamar Chase or Davante Adams are.
"If I'm the quarterback, that's who I'm throwing to. A bunch of guys that don't look like they're making much progress. They don't feel like they're better than they were two years ago. I mean, that doesn't seem like it to me at all. And then the offensive line just looks like a shitshow. Personnel's bad and I think the coaching isn't very good."
Another source was critical of Matt Groh and his role in advising Belichick on personnel. Does Groh, who came up through college scouting, have any idea to create a team and build a roster that helps the quarterback? Does he have the personality and heft to challenge Belichick in that area like Scott Pioli did? Of course not. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge just agreed with Belchick on everything.
Contast that to what Dolphins GM Chris Grier did when it became clear they were moving forward with Tagovailoa as the franchise quarterback.
"It's just gone downhill since 2021," said one source. "Because all the people around (Belichick) haven't done anything to help him, and that's on (Belichick) for allowing it to happen."
Mac Jones' part in this
The sources did not totally absolve Jones in his decline, nor should they.
"I just think the whole thing has led to Mac having no confidence," said one source. "Mac's footwork is awful. His eye level is awful, his accuracy ... That interception he threw the other day was just ridiculous. He's not playing worth a shit. But I think that there's so much that goes into having good quarterback play in this league."
Said another source: "When everything is going good, and he's at his best, he's an above-average quarterback that you can win with. He's in that same category as Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, a bunch of guys. But he's also in the same category as those guys that if things aren't good around him, he ain't winning any games. And that's really what's happened to this team."
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The bottom line is this. Jones may not have the x-factor that you need to win a Super Bowl title. He may be Cousins or a Garoppolo. But you can't say that definitively yet.
Take QB X in the first round and you ...
- Change his playcaller and system three times in his first three seasons;
- Give him less to work with at the skill positions and lesser coaching for those players.
- Put him behind an offensive line that can't run block and has gotten worse all three seasons, leading to unreal pressure rates on a consistent basis.
The chance of that player being a good player in Year 3 is about 5-10 percent.
"Is that the chicken or the egg?" said one source. "I think it's probably the egg because they just changed the chickens so much."
And then there's this:
"Bill just hasn't done a good enough job of putting together a group of players and coaches that can support the quarterback position when it's not Tom Brady."