As always, I just tell you what the film says about the Patriots. It's not my opinion. It's what the film shows. Here are my immediate thoughts against the Colts, before we get into the analysis of the crucial miscues via the coaches film, player/unit ratings and three up/three down:
- For whatever reason, whether it was Bill O'Brien's decision or at the direction of Bill Belichick, the Patriots went into this game with a very offensive conservative game. Perhaps it was just to manage Mac Jones, who as we had illustrated was in a rut of playing losing football. Perhaps it had to do with the Colts, who don't have a great scheme but are fast on defense. Perhaps it had to do with Conor McDermott playing left tackle. It was probably a combination of factors, but the end result was just asking Jones to be just a game manager. Did not have an issue with that, especially considering the Colts were not a danger to run away from the Patriots.
- Still, I don't understand why the run game wasn't more of an emphasis until the third quarter — the Colts are small up front outside DeForest Buckner and the linebackers are small and not that good (Shaq Leonard is a shell of himself due to injuries). I was also surprised at the lack of quick game and screens. This could have been a nod to the Colts' speed.
- Until the second half when Sidy Sow, Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu started to get great movement in the run game (again, why wasn't this the plan from the start? Why the need to "stay balanced"?), the Patriots' offensive line absolutely got their rear-ends kicked by the Colts. They allowed a record 66.7% pressure rate on Jones - breaking the mark of 52.9% against the Cowboys. This has been the biggest problem with this offense this season. Jones has started 45 games with the Patriots. Of Jones' top 16 pressured-faced games, six have come in these 10 games. That's the fundamental flaw with this passing game, first and foremost. The line also allowed a 47% stuffed run rate. Horrible.
- All five sacks of Jones (in the first half alone, which is ridiculous and probably caused Belichick to tell O'Brien at halftime to run the crap out of the ball in the second half) were unavoidable and not on Jones. The Patriots were on pace to allow 10 sacks in a close game. That should be a franchise embarrassment.
- Jones did his job in the first half, graded out with two plus plays and no negative plays — game manager mode.
- In the fourth quarter, his play kept deteriorating as the game went on. On the play that caused Bill O'Brien to go off on Jones (8:50 3Q), Jones had three options on the play, primarily Henry for a touchdown, but Jones froze and nearly had a catastrophic turnover. At 12:52 4Q from the 5-yard line, Jones had Henry for another touchdown and threw an inexcusable ball that nearly was intercepted. That was among the worst throws I've ever seen from Jones, and then it was topped on the final interception.
- I believe in pressure rate being a huge factor, especially for pocket quarterbacks. I do believe the pressure and sacks were a factor in Jones' play on Sunday. However, I am not absolving him in this game. Those three crucial plays in particular were there to be made and must be made under every circumstance.
- Jones didn't make them because he is shot. He is beyond the point of no return at this point - mostly due to factors that have been out of his control. The relentless pocket pressure has pushed Jones to a breaking point where he can't even be a game manager. Unless the Patriots import a Kyle Shanahan disciple this offseason who thinks Jones can be salvaged ala Tua Tagovailoa/Mike McDaniel, Jones is done here and needs a clean start. A backup for the 49ers would be the best landing spot for him and give him the best chance to resurrect his career under the coach who wanted to draft him third overall in 2021.
- I have no clue what the Patriots will do at quarterback against the Giants. The initial enthusiasm for Will Grier internally may not still be there. Not sure what has transpired in practice. If I had to guess, I would think Bailey Zappe gets a shot.
The breakdown of the sacks and crucial plays that weren't made:
3-6-IND 14 (8:57) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at IND 19 for -5 yards (D.Odeyingbo)
Sack on Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange in 3.53 seconds.
Really would have liked a check to a run, which the Patriots did later with success, first and foremost. Wide open for a shotgun draw.
I didn't love Jones' eyes on this play, which was a bad sign — 4 Colts over 3 Patriots to the right should quickly get him off that but he never leaves the right. And Mike Gesicki was going to be an option (only option) to the right, but even if Jones read it right, the pressure was too much.
3-4-NE 43 (13:08) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 38 for -5 yards (D.Odeyingbo).
No chance. Sidy Sow sack at Jones' feet in 2.25 seconds.
1-10-NE 18 (12:03) M.Jones sacked at NE 13 for -5 yards (D.Odeyingbo)
No chance. Sack on David Andrews/Conor McDermott in 2.85 seconds. The middle pressure from Andrews didn't allow Jones to break the pocket.
3-2-NE 28 (7:07) M.Jones sacked at NE 21 for -7 yards (Ty.Lewis).
Might have had Hunter Henry on a corner route but Rhamondre Stevenson whiffed in 2.2 seconds. No chance.
3-3-NE 35 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 35 for 0 yards (K.Paye).
Cole Strange and McDermott in 2.8 seconds. You could make an argument that Jones should have stayed and fired a ball to Demario Douglas. But I do understand why Jones decided to run for it when the seas parted, but he didn't see the looper coming. Still, terrible protection again.
SECOND HALF
3-3-IND 17 (8:50) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to R.Stevenson [A.Adebawore].
This was the play that drew O'Brien's ire. This play should be a layup, even for a damaged QB. Read the MLB. If he takes Douglas' low crosser, which he does, throw the pop pass to Henry for a TD. If he takes Henry, throw the crosser. If all else fails, check it down to Stevenson for the first down.
I am surprised they didn't just run the next two downs. It's possible O'Brien was upset Jones didn't check to a run.
3-5-IND 5 (12:52) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to H.Henry.
The bottom line is this is a terrible throw by Jones. It appears this should be a route and throw to the pylon, but Henry runs an out and Jones doesn't throw the corner - the throw actually ends up behind Henry. Jones just should have put it hard on Henry as soon as he broke. The throw he ended up with was an in between turd bowl.
2-12-IND 15 (4:25) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right intended for M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by J.Blackmon at IND 1. J.Blackmon to IND 5 for 4 yards (C.Strange).
One of the worst throws I've seen any quarterback make. Even with Vederian Lowe's pressure, this was a layup TD and Jones just choked the throw Knoblauch style.
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Here are the positional ratings against the Colts:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (1 out of 5)
Think we've covered this. Was managing the game until he broke. I mean, look at this chart:
Running backs (4 out of 5)
These two were phenomenal when they were given a chance, especially in the second half. God damn I forgot what it was like to watch Stevenson at his best and finishing runs with impunity. Good stuff.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
Not much to do with that passing chart. Needed more quick games to Douglas. Kid is electric with the ball.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
Did some really great work in the second half in the run game, especially Sow, Strange and Onwenu, but the pressure and stuff rates were just embarrassing, especially against a Colts defensive line that is not that good outside Buckner. Somebody named Dayo Odeyingbo had three sacks. I have no idea who he is. He had 17 pressures in nine games coming in. Expect Belichick to give him a Godchaux-like contract when he's a free agent after 2024.
THREE UP
Rhamondre Stevenson: Mondre got his groove back.
Ezekiel Elliott: Had a lot of juice in his legs. Good stuff.
Mike Onwenu: Wasn't perfect, but he kicked some butt in the run game.
THREE DOWN
Vederian Lowe: Played six snaps and had miscues on three of them.
Conor McDermott: Four total pressures, including parts of two sacks, and a penalty.
Mac Jones: The second half is what it looks like when a player falls apart.
