Hideo Nomo. Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hideki Okajima. Koji Uehara.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
The latest and greatest phenom from Japan has once again been linked to the Boston Red Sox. That should not come as a surprise given the list of names above. Boston and Japanese baseball players — pitchers in particular — have a well-established history.
The 25-year-old right-hander has the potential to be better than all of the above. At least, that’s what we’re being told. The hype train is rolling full steam ahead on the Nippon Professional Baseball star…
With news this week that the Orix Buffaloes have approved his posting request, the Yamamoto sweepstakes is set to begin.
And yes, your Red Sox are likely going to be in on him.
MLB.com's Mark Feinsand lists the Red Sox as a potential fit for Yamamoto, noting that “scouts believe Yamamoto can immediately jump into the No. 1 or 2 spot in a big-league rotation.” Jon Heyman at the New York Post also writes that Boston has been linked to the pitcher.
Several reports indicate the going rate for Yamamoto’s services is expected to be at least $200 million, which is in addition to the posting fee any team that signs him will have to pay to the Orix Buffaloes.
Given their desperate need for starting pitching, it would make all the sense in the world for the Red Sox to be in on arguably the top pitching target of this year’s free agent market (aside from Shohei Ohtani, who we’ve established will not pitch again until 2025). Frankly, they’d better be in on him.
I won’t sit here and pretend that I’ve watched extensive tape on Yamamoto — and I certainly won’t be telling you anything about his arm slot, spin rate, etc.
But I can tell you that the numbers alone are staggering. Jaw-dropping, really. A 70-29 record. An ERA of 1.82 in 897 innings across 172 games in NPB. Nine hundred and twenty-two strikeouts. And perhaps most impressively, a WHIP of 0.935.
One National League scouting director’s thoughts to Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser about Yamamoto: “He’s got so many weapons. Pitchability is so good….This guy has power, feel, aptitude, deception.” Another American League scout told Baseball America that “he’s special.” Yet another NL scouting assistant added “the sky is the limit on this guy.”
In his final season in Japan, Yamamoto went 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA and 169 strikeouts over 164 innings. Oh, and he threw a couple of no-hitters in the process. In the recently concluded Japan Series, Yamamoto struck out a record 14 batters and allowed just one run in a heroic 138-pitch complete effort to force a decisive Game 7.
We also saw a glimpse of Yamamoto in this year’s World Baseball Classic, where he pitched to a 1-0 record with a 2.45 ERA and 12 strikeouts — the second-most in the tournament — in 7 1/3 innings for champion Japan.
Sounds like a guy who’s ready to make the jump to the majors…
As gaudy as his numbers are, though, you never know how someone is going to adjust to playing here until they actually do it. We can’t say definitively whether or not Yamamoto is cut out for the big leagues before he’s thrown a single pitch. Of course, NPB is no joke — it’s arguably the best baseball league in the world outside of MLB.
What we can do is look at the similarities of some of the past pitchers who made the jump at some point from Japan to the majors — and specifically, the Red Sox.
Nomo performed well during his one season in Boston back in 2001, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in 33 starts yet recording the fourth and final 200-strikeout season of his respectable 11-year MLB career.
Nomo’s best big league season came in his rookie year when he went 13-6 with a 2.54 ERA and a career-best 236 strikeouts with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Then there was “Dice-K,” who is probably going to be the best comp to Yamamoto out of Boston’s most notable Japanese pitchers.
Matsuzaka joined the Red Sox in his age 26 season. After an up-and-down rookie season in ’07 (which still ended with 15 wins, a career-best 201 strikeouts and a World Series championship), Dice-K put together a Cy Young-caliber year in 2008 (he finished fourth in AL voting) with and 18-3 record and a 2.90 ERA.
After that, though, Matsuzaka was never able to resemble the pitcher he was to begin his career over his final six seasons.
Okajima was an All-Star in his first MLB season at the age of 31 in 2007. After a productive second season, his effectiveness also began to fade.
Uehara joined MLB at age 34 and bucked the trend, as his best big league years came toward the end of his baseball career with the Red Sox.
But it’s an interesting trend nonetheless. Nomo, Matsuzaka and Okajima all stepped in and immediately made an impact after coming over from Japan. They were able to hit the ground running, likely because of their prior years of experience at the pro level in Japan.
Talent wise, they had high floors but low ceilings. Sounds like the Mac Jones career arc, doesn’t it?
Of course, Yamamoto is not guaranteed to have success immediately like his counterparts who played in Boston. Yet their quick success offers hope that bringing in Yamamoto could help the Red Sox get back to World Series contender status sooner rather than later.
Gethin Coolbaugh is a contributor to Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on Twitter/X.