On the first third down of the game in Miami, the Patriots came out in shotgun, single back to Mac Jones' left. There were three receivers to the same side, lined up - in order - just inside the numbers, on the numbers, and five yards from the sidelines. Hunter Henry was the lone receiver to the right of the formation, flexed out about five yards off the tackle. At the snap of the ball, the Dolphins manned up Henry, who chipped the defensive end and ran a shallow crossing route. The three wideouts in trips all attacked a similar area on the field and were bunched far too tightly together, making any throw in that area a dangerous one. Jones had to throw to Henry, and he was swarmed well short of the sticks.
The Pats practiced all week, and on the third play of the game, they were already making mistakes. This wasn't a one-time thing Sunday, nor a rarity this season. In fact, last year, spacing in the passing game was a hot mess, which is one of the reasons why I gave Jones the benefit of the doubt. Bill O'Brien is all about the details, yet this offense continues to make self-inflicted mistakes.
"I take ownership of that," said O'Brien when asked about that play. "I've got a coach that that better. It was a third and 12 against Miami, you know, with a good pass rush, and we weren't spaced properly there, so we have to do a better job. The players have to own their part of that. I have to own my part of that. We've got to get that stuff corrected."
Midway through the season, and it's still a thing. That's led to trust issues with the quarterback, who has plenty of his own stuff to sort out.
"I want to make sure that as the quarterback, they understand how important it is for the timing of each play," said Jones. "Just watching other games and all that stuff, you're always looking at film and trying to figure out what offenses are doing really well. One of the things that I want to improve is getting the ball out on time, and a lot of that is with the routes and spacing. They know that, and like I'm trying to do, be more consistent, and that's what they're going to try and do too, right? Young guy, old guy, it doesn't really matter; I want people to play free. But, as the quarterback, I also want people to understand what I'm looking at, too, and make sure we're on the same page."
In this space, I've brought up the line that Dante Scarnecchia ingrained in his offensive linemen - seeing the game through the same set of eyes. It's the same for the QB and his receivers. There are conversations about this daily - between Jones and his pass catchers, Jones and the coaches, coaches and pass catchers. This marriage takes work, week in and week out, but even with the injuries or healthy scratches, there should be more consistency.
Consider that the QB took a ton of reps this summer with DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne, the three players the team had 1-2-3 (in whatever order) going into the season. All three have been guilty parties in spacing and route running mistakes in-season. Throw in Demario Douglas - he's a rookie who's made rookie mistakes and will continue to do so as he grows in the scheme and at this level - and an error-prone Jones, and what you have is an offense that 20th in passing yards and 26 in yards per attempts.
On top of that, Parker is expected to miss this weekend's game with a concussion, and Bourne, the team's top receiver, has been lost for the year with a torn ACL. That likely means more responsibility for one or both of the Tyquan Thornton/Kayshon Boutte duo.
"I think this week of practice will be really good to see who wants it, who wants to go out there and compete, and who wants to pay attention to the details and work to get on the same page, the spacing, the depth, the splits, and all that stuff," said Jones.
"I don't know who those guys will be right now. You know, it comes down to the practice field. It really does," said O'Brien. "Like, you know, how do you practice? Are you ready to go by the time Saturday or Sunday rolls around? Then, Bill (Belichick) will determine who's active for the game. That's really how it is. And so it's a big week for the receivers. A big week."
THAT WAS QUICK
The Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas ended sooner than his debacle in Denver over a decade prior. I didn't have that on my Bingo card, at least not this soon. McDaniels and the now-deposed Dave Ziegler made one misstep after another upon their ascension to the Raiders' throne. Consider:
- Contract extensions for Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller. Two of the three were cast off after one season with new management, and Vegas has been trying to peddle Renfrow since the offseason
- The Chandler Jones signing. Look, McDaniels had no way of knowing that the former Patriot and Cardinal edge rusher would encounter such dramatic personal struggles over the last few months, but they reworked his deal this spring despite an underwhelming first season. In doing so, they paid him more upfront and now have a bigger cap hit going forward. Now, the cap is going to explode and is not nearly the factor that some would have you believe (yes, I'm an anti-capper), but it adds to the degree of difficulty going forward.
- The Jimmy Garoppolo signing. He looks cashed. If you know me, you know it's painful for me to write, but I let the truth lead the way. He sees the rush. His feet are unsettled. The line is not good (a common refrain across the NFL), but I'm not sure he's salvageable this year.
- Then there's the Davante Adams deal, which signaled the Raiders were all-in last year, but the defense was putrid on paper, and that's how it played out on the field. So, what was the plan, exactly? Adams has been dissatisfied, and according to various reports, owner Mark Davis had been having meetings with players for weeks. Talk about combustible.
Anyway, it's hard to imagine McDaniels ever getting another head coaching job, at least in the NFL. And Ziegler will undoubtedly have to rebuild his image (and resume) going forward. Perhaps they can find a safe haven in Foxborough - McDaniels has taken this route before - but in the short term, it's another arm of the Belichick/Pats tree that hasn't found success elsewhere (Crennel, Weis, Mangini, McDaniels, Patricia, Judge, and Flores).
BIG GAME HUNTING
Speaking of all in, the Jets reportedly made calls about Adams, Mike Evans, and Tee Higgins leading up to the trade deadline Tuesday. My first thought was smart. Gang Green needs a pass catcher opposite Garrett Wilson, who is superb. Allen Lazard has been mostly meh for New York, and Randall Cobb is 100 years old. Getting a high-level companion piece would help elevate the offense and take some attention off Wilson. But there is a more significant component to this. Aaron Rodgers. I can't help but think GM Joe Douglas believes their franchise quarterback, who took a grand total of four snaps before the Achilles snapped, has a real chance at returning before the season's end. Consider that Evans and Higgins are in the final year of their contracts, and they'll be buckets worth of millions awaiting them this offseason. Adams would be more of a long-term commitment, but…Rodgers. Adams didn't love the "Are you in, or are you out?" game that the quarterback played his last couple of seasons in Green Bay, but considering how life has gone for the wideout in Vegas, there's a good chance he'd embrace change. Anyway, a trade is a moot point now, but maybe there's more substance to the veiled hints that Rodgers could find his way back, assuming the 4-3 Jets have a chance at the postseason (which they do as of right now). I'd like to see it (I'm pro the best players playing).
BACK UP THE BRINKS TRUCK
While I applaud the Bears for targeting Montez Sweat as a piece they would like to have on their roster going forward - a "multiplier," said Chicago GM Ryan Poles of his new charge - trading a second-round pick to the Commanders for his services is a little dicey. Essentially, they just handed the talented young edge defender most of the cards in negotiations. If the two sides can't agree on an extension, the Bears will be forced to franchise tag Sweat. Over the Cap estimates that will be around $20.5 million, fully guaranteed.
If they roll the dice - which seems unimaginable - at least a half-dozen teams will be lined up to pay him well over that number per year. In fact, Spotrac estimates his free agent deal to be 25 million over four seasons, for what it's worth. Isn't that where the negotiations start with Sweat? Or even higher, say more Nick Bosa (34 mil per) than Leonard Williams (21 per), players similarly comped age-wise and production-wise?
You'll recall that the Bears did something similar at the deadline a year ago, sending a second-rounder to the Steelers for Chase Claypool. They chose not to give Claypool an extension and then sent him away from the team for terrible effort this year before eventually waiving him (he's on the Dolphins now). Poles better hope this deal works out a lot better than that one.
*******This just in Saturday afternoon: Sweat agrees to four-year deal worth 98 million, 73 million guaranteed.********
NERD NUMBERS
- The Pats are 23-5 at home against teams entering the game with a losing record in the last 10 seasons. That's 3rd-best in the NFL, behind KC (27-3) and BUF (30-6).
- Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes will be the 2nd matchup in the last 50 seasons (including playoffs) between the leader in pass yards & pass TD (Tagovailoa) & the previous season's leader in pass yards & pass TD (Mahomes). The only other matchup over that span was Kurt Warner vs Peyton Manning in 2001.
- Despite being the only team in the NFL to score 20+ points in each game in 2023, the Colts have lost all three games since starting QB Anthony Richardson was lost for the season.
- We know the Eagles are good. How good? We're about to find out; their next six opponents have a combined .684 win pct this season and were all 2022 playoff teams.