MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The win over the Bills was certainly nice, and unexpected.
But outside of New England — and even in some parts of it eager for a new era of Patriots football — not much has changed regarding the perception of the Patriots. They are viewed largely — fairly or unfairly — as a team on the decline with an all-time great coach at the helm who isn't going to budge or embrace the present game, until someone shows him the door. Basically, the current-day Dolphins, Steelers and Cowboys.
I mean, people like to ridicule Don Shula for his lack of Super Bowl trips and wins (valid), even if the road became somewhat easier in recent years with byes and playoff expansion, but the fact remains he was shown the door after 1995 when he had just one losing season in his final 19 years — eight years earlier. Right now, Bill Belichick is headed for his third in four years.
But all of that can change with a win against the Dolphins today.
One big win can be explained away, especially with the state the Bills are in right now (have lost two of three and the win was a fortunate dogfight with another 2-5 team, the Giants).
But if the Patriots can find a way to win today — in a primo look-ahead spot between Dolphins battles with reigning Super Bowl representatives — and now you're looking at a trend.
Miami has won its past three home games against New England and five of the past six meetings overall. A win over the Patriots would be Miami’s best seven-game stretch against New England since going 6-1 against them from Oct. 17, 1999 to Oct. 6, 2002.
The Dolphins at Hard Rock are no joke, especially with this offense treating it as its personal Hayward Field (Oregon's legendary track). Miami is looking for its 16th win in its past 18 home games. The last time the Dolphins did that was back when they called the Orange Bowl home (ah, memories for Little Big Boy - yes, even the 1985 AFC Championship Game ... tear), when they went 23-2 from Oct. 30, 1983 to Jan. 4, 1986. Miami’s .882 win pct. in its past 17 home games (15-2) is tied with Kansas City and San Francisco for the best in the NFL since the run began on Nov. 7, 2021. Not bad company.
The Patriots at 3-5 — 3-1 in the division — with the schedule lightening with the Commanders, Colts, Giants, Steelers, Broncos and Jets makes them extremely relevant. They would go from punch line to the "Look Out For..." team overnight.
Belichick wouldn't be going out like Noll, Landry and Shula. He'd be relevant.
Mac Jones wouldn't have to hear about Bailey Zappe, Malik Cunningham (good lord, people, give it up), Will Grier or first-round QBs — at least for another few weeks.
However, if they lose this game — and this is a much more difficult matchup than the Bills for more reasons than just the locale — the Patriots, at 2-6, would stay the little kids' table for a while, maybe the rest of the year — unless they rip off a big winning streak after the bye at 4-6. Of course, there will be the matter of getting past their most recent moniker — Late Season Faders — which dates back to Tom Brady's final season. The Patriots haven't won more than two games in December and January since the 2018 Super Bowl run: 6-15 (2-4, 2-3, 2-4, 2-4).
But let's deal with that collar when we get to it.
For now, let's see them stack success with a victory in Miami. A record of 3-5 on the way to 5-5 being heavy favorites the next two weeks against Gardner Minshew and Sam Howell looks pretty damn good. Just going 4-3 down the stretch should get them into the playoffs, or at least in it until the very end. 5-2 locks it up.
2-6 into 4-6 ... now you're talking about the need to climb over three AFC North teams and the Bills ... would need 5-2 to contend, 6-1 to definitely get in.
Basically, a win today makes things a lot easier — Belichick and Jones in particular.
A loss revives the death march for both.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Certainly curious timing with Josh Uche being downgraded to out for Sunday, along with right tackle Vederian Lowe. Uche was not healthy enough to play last week (when the Patriots had one of their best pass rushes of the season) and was limited all week in practice with ankle/toe injuries so perhaps this is legit, but he was in the locker room on Friday and appeared in good spirits.
But the Patriots could be preserving him to hold his trade value ahead of Tuesday's 4 p.m. deadline. There's little question that he is the Patriots' player most available at the trade deadline. He's never been more than a one-trick pony in the eyes of the coaches and would hold much more value in other schemes that will play him every down. He's also garnering the most interest, according to league sources. The Patriots are never going to match what he's offered in the offseason, so they might as well get what they can with Keion White, Anfernee Jennings and Jahlani Tavai all available to play on the edge, and Matthew Judon expected back if the team is in it.
2. From what I'm hearing, it would take a big offer — at least a third-round pick, likely more — to get the Patriots to budge on anyone else major: Kyle Dugger, Hunter Henry, Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown. However, the Patriots would listen more closely on Adrian Phillips, Jalen Mills, Devante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster and Ezekiel Elliott. Trading Elliott would be a real coup — signed for nothing and offloaded to a contender for something?
3. From those around the team ... Uche is the favorite to be moved, but don't expect much else. "Bill is going to Bill," one said. "He's trying to win. Takes a lot for him to move on this kind of stuff."
4. After viewing the Dolphins' game film against the Eagles, I think their performance is being completely underrated. The Eagles did not dominate them or anything. If Tyreek Hill doesn't drop that touchdown pass late in the third, the game is tied. The Dolphins had a ton of calls go against them (called for 10, Eagles zero - if that happened against the Patriots on national television, there would be calls for a Congressional investigation) and they have had a run of injuries. They appear to getting a lot healthier, but the line is still beat up.
5. Bedard's Pick
Fanduel Odds: Dolphins -8.5, 46.5 o/u
Bedard's 2023 record: 4-3 overall, 4-3 vs. spread.
Glad to see Belichick and the coaches got back to listening to me last week (kidding) in getting Josh Allen sped up but this is a different challenge entirely. The Patriots' best chance of winning this game is in the trenches on both sides. The Dolphins' offensive line is horrendous right now so the Patriots just first stop their run game inside and with supreme work on the edge – nothing to the edge. Up front, the Patriots have to be able to run the ball and use quick playaction/boots off that. With Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard expected back (Jevon Holland is out), the Patriots do not want to get into a passing match with this team. Patriots hang tough, but the Dolphins are too good at home right now and it's expected to be mid-80s and sunny. Tough task.
Dolphins 24, Patriots 20.
