If you’re a Patriots fan, the focus of the season may start shifting to the draft.
Three things are important for an NFL team related to building through the draft. They must pick the right players, the coaching staff and the players have to develop, and those players have to stay healthy. When picking, you’re factoring the calculus of all three to make an educated guess (do they have the traits we look for, can they develop into good players within our system, and the ability to stay on the field). Right now, the Patriots aren’t good enough on those fronts and it has left them in a difficult spot.
Quick aside, as I said in last year’s podcast with Greg, I believe Mac Jones to be a rhythm thrower who operates well within a system. That’s not a knock, matter of fact it's a compliment. There are generally two styles of QBs, those that can operate outside the system (think Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes at an elite level) and those that operate within a system (think Tom Brady). Brady was at his best when he knew what the defense was doing and released the ball at the back of his drop. When he got into a rhythm, he was unstoppable. When defenses pressured him, especially up the middle, it disrupted that rhythm.
So, I’ve defended Mac because he hasn’t consistently got into that rhythm. Normally, I put a lot of that on coaching and/or play calling. Well, it's gotten bad. Now it feels like they are never in rhythm as an offense. Mac may not be the main problem but at this point, it’s hard to say he’s not part of the problem. Interesting weeks ahead.
Greg asked me to put together a quick primer of the QBs that may come out in this draft.
An average of 11+ QBs are taken in each draft. So not all these players will get drafted. Lastly, if you are in the market for a QB this is a very deep class. I do expect the underclassman (*) that aren’t first-rounders to return to school and increase their draft stock for the next season.
A lot will change between now and draft weekend. I would expect at least 1 more QB in Round 1. No position rises and falls quicker and to a greater degree than QB. The position is so much more about experience and mental ability than other positions.
Day 1 (Round 1)
*Drake Maye, UNC (6-foot-4, 230 pounds): There’s a decent chance Maye goes first in the draft. He’s very good and still developing and he has the ideal physical makeup for the modern NFL game. He has the arm strength, does a good job with his eyes, and he’s effective when he needs to run. The easy comp is Justin Herbert. He was excellent against Syracuse last week and against South Carolina to start the year.
The competition starts to pick up with a game against Miami tonight. The “U” isn’t all the way back but there is some talent on their defense. Good test for Maye.
*Caleb Williams, USC (6-1, 215): The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is the odds-on favorite to be the top selection. He’s a problem solver when facing the rush and can create “wow” moments out of thin air. His escape ability allows him to beat you with his legs or arm. His size isn’t ideal, but he has strong and powerful legs that make him hard to tackle (at least in college). He needs to get rid of the ball faster and on schedule (something the Patriots have traditionally valued).
I know it’s been floated that he’ll only declare if he can play for certain teams (because he can continue to make a lot of NIL money) but I believe that’s just posturing. He has a primetime matchup tonight against Notre Dame.
*J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (6-3, 202): Coach Jim Harbaugh is really high on McCarthy’s potential. Feels he’s the best QB Michigan has had since our guy. He’s calm in the pocket and commands the offense. The Michigan offense doesn’t require him to be the focal point to win games and the knock on him is that he’s well-protected (elite line, running game, defense). But he does everything well and Michigan was willing to put the ball in hands in the semifinal last year.
The tests are coming. Penn State and Ohio State have high-end NFL talent which will force Michigan to rely more on McCarthy.
Day 2 (Rounds 2-3)
*Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (6-3, 215): If you’re a football fan with a TV (and we are) you’re following Coach Prime and the Buffaloes. I’ve been impressed by Shedeur. He has moxie, strong FBI, obviously very athletic and he can be effective in and outside the pocket. I’ve been impressed with his accuracy on anticipation throws. With what Deion is building in Boulder, I suspect Shedeur stays for another year.
Colorado lost last night but Sanders was 33-47 for 400 yards, 5 TDs and 1INT.
*Quinn Ewers, Texas (6-2, 195): He’s taken a more mature approach this year, both on and off the field. I thought he was very good against Alabama and settled down well against Oklahoma. I wrote in my notes “quietly calm in the pocket”. He’s a little slight but he has a good arm with the ability to drop a deep ball into the bucket. I think another year of seasoning would help with consistency.
*Riley Leonard, Duke (6-4, 211): Duke has limited talent around him, and he’s been able to lift the program. That’s a great trait in a QB. Above average speed if he needs to run and he has an NFL arm. He hurt his ankle in the final drive against Notre Dame and it’s unclear if he’ll play tonight against NCST.
Bo Nix, Oregon (6-2, 225): He has a lot of experience against top competition. He started as a true freshman at Auburn and cut his teeth in the SEC. He’s been much better playing in the structure of Oregon’s offense. He’s an athlete with a lot of self-belief and he can create on his own. I used to say he was more of an athlete than a QB. He’s matured over the years, but he needs to continue to eliminate the bad big play and live to play another down.
He’s having a great season and Nix has a big game today against Washington, who has their own prospect (see below), and a talented defense.
Jayden Daniels, LSU (6-4, 210): I thought he was pretty good in the games I watched. He's fast, great vision, and tough when running. I think he could improve his awareness in the pocket, but he is patient; tries to keep eyes downfield and buy time before pulling the ball to run. I think he needs to throw on schedule more, improve his accuracy from the pocket, and continue to fill out his frame.
He plays Auburn’s talented secondary tonight.
*Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (6-4, 230): I thought the Connecticut native was good in ‘21 but bad last year. This is his 3rd OC in as many years. He made some great throws in the game against Texas A&M (they have talent), throws a good deep ball and he’s pretty accurate. But he really needs to be more consistent. He has 5 games on the schedule against better defenses which will provide good tape.
He plays UNC tonight.
Day 3 (Round 4-7)
Michael Penix Jr., Washington (6-3, 213): The Huskies have looked good, and their leader is having an excellent year (leading FBS in passing yards). He’s a lefty with an NFL arm and the willingness to put the ball downfield. Athletic enough to get outside the pocket and create with his legs. He has one of the best WR corps in the country and that has helped him. Consistency in both his mechanics and accuracy will be important for him this year. I don’t him higher, at least yet, because of his age (he’ll be 24 as a rookie) and injury history.
Today’s game against Oregon will be a great test.
*Michael Pratt, Tulane (6-3, 220): He’s smart, tough, and pretty accurate (throws with good touch and anticipation) Pratt has had a productive career and he has tons of experience (35 starts). I wanted to see him play against Ole Miss (ankle) but I think he has draftable potential.
Pratt played on Thursday night and led Tulane to a win. They could potentially play in another big bowl game (they beat USC last year in the Cotton Bowl).
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (6-1, 216): Been impressed with him this year (UNC/Georgia). He showed some real toughness in the game against UNC (willing to stay in the pocket as he was getting crushed). He can make most throws and is very good off platform. Rattler needs to remove the unforced errors. He's got a great arm but he's going to need to improve leadership skills, decision making, and teams will drill into the off-field stuff.
Kurtis O’Rourke, Ohio (6-5, 231): I wrote about him on BSJ during Bowl Season. Intriguing traits because of his size and arm. He was MAC OPOY last year, but he got hurt at the end of the year and then was injured early this season. Needs to close strong to justify a development pick.
*DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon St (6-4, 252): Tons of physical talent but he struggled at Clemson the last two years (they run a simple offense but usually effective). Moving to Oregon State, adjusting the scheme to a more pro-style offense provides a better look at him. Playing well this year but he needs to balance the big arm with improved touch and accuracy. Another year in school would help him.
Joe Milton III, Tennessee (6-5, 234): First guy off the bus and the first guy on the field throwing the ball. One of the best arms you’ll ever see and while he doesn’t run that often, he has great speed. Good teammate according to those inside the program but he’s a lottery pick. Not enough consistency and not at all accurate when on the move.
*Cam Ward, Washington St (6-2, 223): He’s built like a RB, strong and compact, and can play like one. His athletic ability allows him to get out of jams in the pocket. Accuracy has always been his issue but generally better this year. Not sure about his arm angles but he does it get out fast. I thought he was very good against Oregon State and Wisconsin. He’ll have more big-time matchups throughout the year.
Will Howard, Kansas St (6-5, 242): I thought he was intriguing so far this year, but he didn’t play that well last week against Oklahoma St. It’s important he limits turnovers (last year was good, this year has been bad). He’s a big man and he can be physical running the ball. Needs to finish strong to get drafted.
Cam Rising, Utah (6-1, 216): He tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl last year and hasn’t returned to the field but he’s a gamer. Coach Kyle Whittingham called him one of the best leaders he’s been around. He’s a tough kid that has battled injuries. Decent enough arm but he can run for yards, he has great intangibles, and he maxes out on toughness. Size and his medicals will drop him to the end of the draft.
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (5-11, 208): Tua’s younger brother has some similarities (accurate and tough). Started his career at Alabama before transferring to Maryland. Consistency has been hit or miss (throws to many INTs) but I think he’s made that program better. Size will be his biggest concern.
PFA
Devin Leary, Kentucky (6-1, 217), Jordan Travis, FSU (6-1, 202), Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (5-11, 204), Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (6-1, 210), Austin Reed, Western Kentucky (6-1, 222), KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (6-3, 252), Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina (6-3, 230), Kedon Slovis, BYU (6-2, 217), Will Rogers, Miss St (6-1, 208).
BONUS
John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (6-0, 200): I’ve covered him here in past years and I love him for the Patriots as a slot WR at the next level. Julian Edelman 2.0.
