Well, there are certainly better matchups for the Patriots to have coming off their 38-3 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys.
Would have preferred to see the Raiders and their defensively-challenged team next up instead of a week from now. But the schedule is what it is.
Sunday's matchup between the Saints and Patriots will not be a Picasso. Both teams feature tough defenses, and offenses that are trying to find any success behind shaky offensive lines. This will be a finger painting, pre-K style.
In the words of Seinfeld's Kramer: "Look away, I'm hideous."
In a lot of ways, this is about as bad a matchup as Mac Jones could ask for coming off the worst performance of his career. Jones got sped up against the Cowboys and was completely out of sorts, which happens to the best of them. As an offensive coordinator, I'm sure Bill O'Brien is hoping to settle his QB by getting back to the basics and fundamentals. You might cut the playbook down, get really simple.
The problem in this matchup is Dennis Allen's Saints defense is designed to create mayhem. They get after the quarterback, and play a lot of aggressive man coverage on the outside. They have two fast linebackers in Demario Davis and Pete Warner. Tyrann Mathieu is waiting at safety to make plays.
The Bucs beat the Saints 26-9 last Sunday. Don't be fooled by the score — it was tough sledding for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Their two real touchdown drives — 10 points came off two turnovers and the drive were 6 plays, 15 yards (a defense making plays for their offense!) — were 17 plays, 87 yards and 10 plays, 75 yards.
The Bucs moved Mayfield around a lot. There were a lot of short passes (season-low 5.8 average depth of target), five screen passes, 11 pressures, season-high two turnover-worthy plays, zero big-time throws according to PFF.
Basically, coming off the worst decision-making game of his career thanks to facing the most pressure he's ever faced and 40 percent through four games, Jones is going to have to quickly reset and have the best decision-making game of his career. He's going to have to be more patient than ever. He's probably going to have to throw balls away, not make the big mistake. There could be a lot of punts. With a grumpy fanbase after a 1-3 start, things could get pretty ugly on Sunday for Jones and the Patriots' offense.
To make matters worse, this is the same opponent that caused Jones to go into a funk in 2021 to the point he needed to be led off the field by Bill Belichick's hand. Jones was 30 of 51 for 270 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions (including a pick-six) for a passer rating of 55.2 that day.
"I think we're just going to focus on learning from the tape. I think that's most important," Jones said after the game. "It definitely stinks to lose, but you can learn from it, and it definitely eats away at you when you lose, but you've got to learn and move on. That's what a lot of the older guys were telling me, just keep my head up. Obviously, no one likes to lose here, and the Patriots have done nothing but win for a long time. We've got to get back to that. It just happens through everyday grind, everyday work, and not focusing on the results. Play each play. Play each day one day at a time. If we can do that, then I think we'll see progress, and we'll just go from there."
Bonus - I could just basically rerun my Breakdown column from that game:
Look, this is just the type of game where the Patriots and Jones just need a win. It will likely be an ugly one. But two scoring drives might do it in this one, even if you have to punt six other times.
THOUGHTS ON THE SAINTS
- Job No. 1 is stopping Cameron Jordan, the Saints' great end. He is a game wrecker and the fact that he could be lining up a lot over whatever the Patriots have at right tackle.
- RDE Carl Granderson is a good, solid player who is tough to move. Trent Brown needs to win that matchup.
- The interior of the Saints' line is not great and there should be opportunities to run, but I said that about the Cowboys and that didn't work out. Mike Onwenu has to bounce back as much as Jones.
- Love Davis and Werner, the linebackers. They're fast and make plays. Can be over-aggressive.
- Honey Badger will still pounce on any mistakes. Jones can't throw any weak balls to the middle of the field.
- RCB Marshon Lattimore is still excellent and very physical. Will draw flags. Even with with youngsters like Paulson Adebo and Isaac Yiadom on the other side, the Saints play a lot of press man. They mix in zone. Altontae Taylor is a longer slot. Would like to see Demario Douglas get a shot there. Bucs used a player similar to him on a lot of motion.
- The Saints' offense has playmakers all over the place — Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Alvin Kamara — but the line has been a big issue thanks to injuries to LG Andrus Peat and RG Cesar Ruiz. They can't block the run or the pass. This game could very well come down to which line blocks better. They've both been bad.
BEDARD'S PICK
Fanduel Odds: Saints by 1, 39.5 o/u
Bedard's 2023 record: 3-1 overall, 2-2 vs. spread.
Patriots opened as a 2.5-point favorite and are now home underdogs. Yikes.
To add to the ugliness of this game is the referee, Alex Kemp. They have thrown the most flags in the league (80). Of the 63 accepted, 25 have gone against the home team and 38 against the visitors. False start and offensive holding are their favorite penalties.
This is a pretty even matchup except for special teams — Darren Rizzi's unit, which knows the Patriots well from his time with the Dolphins, is way better. Plus the Patriots now have to adjust to life without Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. We don't know what impact that will have.
I admit I'm going with my gut here and that I can't see the Patriots falling to 1-4 and 0-3 at home. Until that happens, I'm not going to believe it.
BEDARD'S PICK: Patriots 16, Saints 13
INJURY REPORT
Trent Brown (chest) added.
QUESTIONABLE
DL Christian Barmore
OL Trent Brown
DB Cody Davis
DL Trey Flowers
DL Davon Godchaux
CB Jonathan Jones
OL Riley Reiff
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
OG Cole Strange
CB Shaun Wade
Saints (starters in bold):
OUT
TE Juwan Johnson, Calf (DNP)
S Lonnie Johnson, Hamstring (DNP)
T Landon Young, Hip (DNP)
QUESTIONABLE
G Andrus Peat, Concussion (LP)
CB Paulson Adebo, Hamstring (LP)
QB Derek Carr, Right Shoulder (LP)
G/T James Hurst, Ankle (LP)