Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints is the biggest game of Mac Jones' professional career. Too strong, you say? Too early? Perhaps, but consider where things stand with the former first-round pick and current franchise quarterback…
Jones has 36 starts, including one playoff appearance, and has been the very definition of average. None of his numbers jump off the page at you. 41 touchdowns to 28 interceptions. Meh. An average of 219 yards passing per game. Meh. One fourth-quarter comeback (do you remember what that was? Answer below.). Ugh. There is no signature win on his resume. But there are bad turnovers in big spots, a reputation as a dirty player (hard to accomplish as a quarterback), and he's playing in front of a fan base that embraced his backup a year ago and is edging toward throwing their hands up and yelling "Next!" should this offense, and Mac, remain behind just about every other in the NFL. If you're going to be a middling franchise - Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, and Houston come to mind - at least be exciting while doing it (not saying all of those are). That has yet to happen in New England (well, except for the middling part).
I know there's a lot that has gone into getting here. Bad roster management at wide receiver, tight end (can't erase Jonnu Smith from the memory bank. He's the second-highest-paid offensive player on this year's team, even though he's not on the roster), and offensive line, which has been one of the worst in the league this year. There's the whole Patricia/Judge debacle. That never should have happened, although maybe they were hamstrung by the lack of talent. But for this Pu pu platter of reasons, the Pats are a 1-3 team, coming off the worst loss of Bill Belichick's coaching tenure while averaging just over 13 points per game. They've been to the red zone once (!) in the last two games combined. One. Time. IT'S 2023! This isn't it. It can't be.
Which leads us back to Jones. The Cowboys tried to be polite publicly, but their actions defensively told you all you needed to know. They dared Mac to test the mid to deep quadrants, especially toward the sidelines. Invited it, really, and he couldn't find success there. The arm isn't strong enough. Dallas got into his kitchen and stayed there, leading to the most uncharacteristic performance of the QB's career.
"If it's not perfect, he's just not going to be able to carry that team," a Cowboy player told me. "Even when it was clean, I still felt like we had a chance to make plays against him."
"Look, I don't blame the kid," a personnel exec with no dog in the fight told me. "They've given him very little to work with, but he is what we thought he was coming out of Alabama - a smart player whose limitations physically place limits on what he can ever be. I know some thought he could be a high-level game manager, a (Derek) Carr or (Kirk) Cousins type. Maybe he could, in the right situation, but his arm ain't like those other guys, and maybe this doesn't get much better than average. Sorry."
Jones has to rebound against the Saints, which is no easy task considering how good that defense is (and how well they play man-to-man, something the Pats have struggled mightily against). A good performance - a clean performance - and a win would call off the dogs for another week. But a poor outing will only increase the noise, and a poor performance and a loss would leave the Pats in dire straits and Jones right there with them. That's no place to be for the team or the quarterback. But it's time to consider the uncomfortable reality of where this organization resides right now, with the possibility that they could be searching for their third starting QB since letting Brady walk out that door.
(Answer: 25-22 win over the Texans in Week 5 of last year. The Texans had the second-worst record in football in 2022-23)
POWER PLAY
The Buffalo Bills are coming off the season's most impressive win, a 48-20 thrashing of Miami in the game of the year so far. And now, more help is on the way.
Von Miller made his practice debut this week before Sunday's game in London versus the Jaguars. Miller, who was lost Thanksgiving day in 2022 with a torn ACL, reports that he is none the worse for wear.
"It felt like riding a bike, an old bike, but it felt like I was just hopping back on the bike again."
Miller said he had gotten medical clearance two days before the Bills had to decide whether or not to put him on the PUP list this summer (about a week before the start of the regular season). But having not practiced for the duration of training camp, the team and Miller felt it best to work him back slowly and smartly despite his rapid recovery.
"It just wasn't right. I hadn't had any practice in football pads," he said. "It gave me four weeks to focus on my conditioning, just to be sure."
Miller's signing by the Bills surprised the football world, with the future Hall of Famer reaching out to the Bills and not the other way around. He wanted to help bring a championship to Buffalo. As we know, that's not how last year ended, with Miller's injury just one of many challenges that the team, its players, and its fan base endured - from the racially motivated supermarket slayings to two snow storms that paralyzed the region to Damar Hamlin dying and being brought to life during a game. The team you saw in the postseason was a tired one, physically and emotionally. After laying an egg in the opener at the Jets, this group has reminded all that reports of their demise were premature. And Miller's impending return adds to that.
"It's Von Miller. First ballot Hall of Famer," offered Josh Allen. "The juice that he brings for the guys, the trust that everybody has for him - he's the ultimate closer."
"I'm coming into a team that is running on four cylinders," Miller said. "Josh Allen is prime Josh Allen. Our defense is one of the top defenses in the league without me. I'm coming into a great situation. Whatever they think is right (regarding being active Sunday), I'll do."
A scary team is now even more frightening.
HE SAID WHAT?
Patrick Mahomes threw a pair of interceptions in Sunday night's 23-20 win over the Jets. The Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 lead in that game before Mahomes hit a rough patch, eventually allowing New York to draw even at 20. And yes, while he did lead them on a game-winning drive, the All-World quarterback threw himself under the bus, saying he got too "greedy."
"Sometimes when stuff's maybe not going as well or if I want to get that deep shot going, I'll try to force it, whereas there are just times where I've got to just throw the ball away or take the check-down, and it goes against my nature. But it's something that you have to do at this quarterback position to have success."
The way Mahomes said check down made it sound like a dirty word. He's quarterbacked one of the league's most explosive attacks in previous years, even last season after Tyreek Hill was traded away, winning a Super Bowl with JuJu Smith-Schuster as his best wideout.
This year, however, has been a struggle, especially with his wide receivers. Only one, rookie Rashee Rice, has double-digit catches (13). The rest of that crew - Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justyn Ross, and Richie James - have combined for 32 grabs. No way the Chiefs thought that was how it would go, but here they are, grappling to find someone to compliment Travis Kelce, who is still not right after missing the opener with a bum knee. That's all conspired to put Mahomes on track for the lowest number of TD passes in his career (he had 26 in 14 games in 2019) and the most interceptions ever (worst was 13 in 2021). Perhaps that will get KC GM Brett Veach on the phone, looking for help at that position, or maybe - and this is more likely - he'll trust Mahomes and Andy Reid to figure it out. It's worked before, though this time, it does appear a little more daunting than in years past.
QUARTER POLE(ISH)
One of the great injustices of the NFL expanding its regular season to 17 games is how it hamstrings my ability to break down the year into quarters—the nerve. But I thought I'd use this space to hand out my first-quarter awards. As far as prestige goes, it doesn't get much better and bigger than this…
MVP: Christian McCaffrey. What he is doing is absurd. He leads the NFL in rushing attempts (80) and yards (459) and has 7 TDs, which is tied for the league lead. Kyle Shanahan said the RB has been so good it's been hard to take him out of games. McCaffrey has had injury problems in the past, but no one has been better through four weeks.
DPOY: Myles Garrett. The Browns star has gone to a higher level under DC Jim Schwartz. No one has pressured the QB more, and he also has 5.5 sacks. But Garrett has also proven to be almost as good as a run defender in three of the four weeks, making him the most complete edge player in the game.
OPOY: Justin Jefferson. The Vikings got all the breaks last year. This year? Not so much. But it's not Jefferson's fault. Opposing teams know the ball is coming his way, and he still leads the league with 543 receiving yards on 33 catches (tied for 3rd). He's an elite route runner with excellent hands and a knack for coming up with almost every 50/50 ball thrown his way. If there was a do-over on the 2020 draft, he's not going 22nd. He might go 3rd, behind Burrow and Hebert. He's just that much of a difference-maker.
OROY: C.J. Stroud. The Texans QB was the best anticipatory thrower in the draft, and boy has that shown up in the first four games of his NFL career. I've got some numbers on him below that will blow your mind.
DROY: Jalen Carter. For as good as Christian Gonzalez was playing, he didn't make it through his 4th game. Meanwhile, Carter was considered the best player in the draft and only fell because of off-field concerns. On the field, he's been a beast. He's got 20 pressures from the interior and has made one of the best defensive lines in football even better.
Comeback POY: Tua Tagovailoa. He leads the NFL in passing when there were a fair amount of talking heads who wondered if he would/should ever play again. He's playing under control and showed toughness in the loss at Buffalo (he got hit a bunch). Maybe the Dolphins would be 3-1 with Mike White (their backup), but I doubt it.
Coach: DeMeco Ryans. The first-year coach in Houston has 'em 2-2 with a +17 point differential. That organization has been a hot mess for years, but Ryans has given them instant credibility.
(Bonus) Best Patriot: Christian Gonzalez. He wasn't just doing it in pass coverage but had shown good instincts and enough physicality to be very sound against the run as well. Sadly, that's when he got hurt.
NERD NUMBERS
- The Pats have blitzed opposing QBs on 36.0 percent of dropbacks in 2023. That's 6th most in the NFL, per Next Get Stats.
- With a win at Pittsburgh this weekend, Baltimore would reach 3-0 in the division with three division road wins. That would make them the first team since the 2019 Chiefs to play each of their first three divisional games on the road and win all three. Those Chiefs finished 12-4 (6-0 in the AFC West) and went on to win Super Bowl LIV.
- C.J. Stroud is the third QB to rank top-5 in passing yards entering Week 5 of rookie season since 1970. The two others? Cam Newton (2011) and Peyton Manning (1998). Stroud is also the first player in NFL history with 1,200+ pass yards and 0 INT over his first four career games (Dak Prescott is the only other player since 1970 with 1,000+ pass yards & 0 INT).