The Boston Celtics pulled off a shocking trade on Sunday, sending Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon, along with Golden State's 2024 pick and an unprotected Celtics first rounder in 2029, to Portland for JrueHoliday.
Karalis' Analysis:
Last week, I wrote "The ONLY way I can think of to make a Holiday deal work is this: Brogdon, Williams, and whatever realistic combination of picks (some second-rounders? A single first-rounder?) for Holiday. Boston then uses the $6.2 million TPE to find a third center somewhere during the course of the season to shore up the frontcourt."
We'll have to wait and see about who they might add to shore up the frontcourt, but this is basically what they pulled off.
The Celtics have now, in essence, swapped Marcus Smart out of the starting lineup for Holiday, and they swapped Williams out of it for Kristaps Porzingis. Brad Stevens took the two worst shooters on the floor and added Holiday, who shot 39.5% from deep in the regular season for Milwaukee (it dips a lot in the playoffs), and Porzingis, who is a threat to hit 25 or 26 feet. The defense changes a bit with Porzingis back there, but the Celtics have very clearly leaned heavily into offense and shooting. Joe Mazzulla must be happy.
The Celtics have sacrificed some of their depth to make this happen, leaving them with some lineup questions.
Let's start with the guards and the starting lineup. Does Boston go with Holiday and Derrick White in the starting lineup with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Porzingis? That would keep Al Horford on the bench so he and Porzingis can basically split time, but that does leave Boston a bit thin at guard. Their primary backup will be Payton Pritchard, who is now in line for a lot of minutes, with Dalano Banton as a potential option to hold down some backup minutes if size is an issue.
Boston could start one of Holiday or White and bring the other off the bench, which would push Al Horford into the starting lineup and leave Boston thin at center. Luke Kornet is currently the only other option there for Boston, which is fine for a short time but not a situation you want to carry into the playoffs.
The Celtics' depth has taken a hit this summer, with Grant Williams and now Brogdon going out. Oshae Brissett, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Sam Hauser will try to make up for some of the scoring that has been lost, while Lamar Stevens will likely try to add some defensive grit off the bench (assuming he makes the team now). And while they all might be able to fill some of the gaps created by these trades, there's a question right now as to who the sixth man is for the Celtics. Again, it looks like one of White, Holiday, or Horford will be pushed into that role.
Boston does now have at least one open roster spot, and they will now almost certainly operate over the second apron this season. Lamar Stevens is technically on an Exhibit 10 contract as a camp invite, but no matter who makes the 14th spot, that salary will carry Boston over the second apron, and using a TPE to add a player will only increase the payroll. So maybe Boston will just move forward as an expensive team going all in this one season for a championship and figuring out the finances later.
And there are a lot of finances to figure out. Holiday, Porzingis, Tatum, and Brown combine to make $137.3 million dollars. Holiday has a player option for next season at $39.4 million and Brown's extension kicks in at $52.3 million, so next season these four guys will combine to make about $155.9 million ... about $13 million over the salary cap. The second apron next season will sit somewhere around $192 million, a number Boston will reach quickly when you add White and Horford's combined $30 million.
That seems untenable. And with ESPN reporting "The Celtics were an aggressive suitor for Holiday, 33, and are expected to work to sign him to a long-term deal with free agency looming in the summer of 2024," there are going to be some serious financial decisions to make moving forward. I just don't see how Holiday, Porzingis, Tatum, and Brown all remain on this team for the long haul. Maybe they can get one more season out of that group after this one, but that's about all.
The bottom line is this: Boston is going for it right now. This season is as championship or bust as it gets. They're going to worry about tomorrow tomorrow because today is all about optimizing this team for a big run. Mazzulla wants shooting everywhere on the floor and Brad Stevens has given it to him. Does it make Boston a better team than the Smart/Williams pairing? We'll have to wait and see on that. It makes them a different team. It makes them a potent offensive team. It makes them a team with similar defensive potential but with a different scheme that will take some time to perfect.
It also gives them someone to defend Milwaukee's newest star, Damian Lillard ... a guy who happens to be very interested in revenge against the team he just swore allegience to. Holiday would probably love nothing more than to shut down the guy he was traded for and dismiss the team that sent him away on his way to a championship. In a lot of ways, this move could simply have been deemed neccessary, even if unpleasant, to keep up with Milwaukee and to prevent Miami or Philadelphia from also rising to challenge Boston.
Whatever the motivation, it's a bold move. And once again Mazzulla has to readjust his plans a day before media day.
Update: They are adding Wenyan Gabriel to the training camp roster. He has a chance to fill that third big role.
Here's the podcast reaction: