The Patriots have dropped the first two games of the season at home for the first time in 48 years after losses to the Eagles and Dolphins.
I mean, no real crime in that. The Eagles are the defending NFC champions, and the Dolphins are on the come. Philly didn't need their A-game to do it. Miami did what it wanted to, largely. Both final scores weren't indicative of the stretches of dominating play by the opponents. Combined leads of 33-3 to start the games masked what really happened.
And then there's this fact: the Patriots have not led for one second through two games.
Again, it's not a death sentence. There has been some bad luck involved, especially on the offensive line. The Patriots could get healthy against the Zach Wilson-led Jets (again), get some continuity on the offensive line, and head to Dallas with an upset on their mind.
But what's evident by now - and, really was two months ago when the Patriots passed on adding DeAndre Hopkins (or anyone else capable of being an upper-echelon receiver) - is the Patriots have to be perfect on offense to start to climb out of this hole. Especially Mac Jones.
This is where, predictably, Bill Belichick has left Jones and Bill O'Brien.
The difference between the two approaches to modern offenses couldn't have been more stark on Sunday night.
Both Tua Tagovailoa and Jones are similar QBs as far as physical skills, and were raised in the same college offense. Both were playing behind injury-plagued offensive lines without their starting left tackles. Tagovailoa had arguably the tougher defense to go up against.
Both, by the end of the game, had the same number of missed throws and both threw an interception that was at least partially their fault.
Yet Tagovailoa averaged 8.3 yards per attempt, and Jones had a pedestrian 5.5.
Why?
Sure, scheme has something to do with it. Mike McDaniel is on the cutting edge of employing motion and other concepts to keep offenses off balance. O'Brien's choices have told you that he has zero confidence in the line holding up the first two games. And he has been proven right, considering the Patriots are 25th in pass-blocking efficiency through two games, according to PFF. Scheme has definitely been a factor.
But this is really about talent and the margin of error it buys your young quarterback. Dolphins invested heavily to get Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Patriots got discounted parts in DeVante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki. The Dolphins basically gave the Patriots Parker (even gladly traded him to you) and Gesicki, which should tell you a lot. Kendrick Bourne was a mid-tier free agent.
You get what you pay for. None of the Patriots' weapons scare opposing defenses, which allows them to clamp down on coverage, which stresses the protection. The Patriots were obviously scared to death of Hill and Waddle to the point they played a kind of prevent defense with three deep safeties until the 17-3 deficit dictated otherwise.
Dangerous weapons equal space for routes to develop and for the QB to pick through quickly — Tagovailoa's average release time of 2.08 seconds easily led the NFL in Week 2. That means no pass rush to affect the QB. Easy living for a passer.
Meanwhile, Jones needs time to let his slow receivers get open, which means the blocking has to hold up longer and you have the perfect marriage, for a defense, of pass rush and coverage. For an offense, it's a nightmare.
Even when the Patriots have a dangerous weapon like Demario Douglas — one key Dolphins defender told me after the game that the rookie was the only good weapon for New England — Belichick benches him after an aggressive fumble during which Douglas was actually making a big play.
When the Dolphins tore through the Patriots' defense to the tune of 75 yards in 1 minute, 38 seconds, they did so with 11 personnel - 1 back, 1 tight end and 3 receivers. The receivers were Hill, Waddle and either River Cracraft or Braxton Berrios. All can run to some extent.
On the Patriots' two fourth-quarter touchdown drives down 14 points, Jones was trying to stay in the game with 1 RB, 2 tight ends and 2 receivers. Hunter Henry, Gesicki, Parker and Smith-Schuster aren't winning many 4x100 relays.
Did I mention the Dolphins averaged nearly 5 yards per carry on the ground, while the Patriots' backs ran at a 3.1 clip?
I wonder which QB is the current MVP favorite over at FanDuel (+500), while the other takes criticism and is +10000?
There are three facets to a really good NFL offense: great weapons, great scheme and good protection/run game.
The Dolphins right now have all three and they are tough to stop (first in offensive DVOA by a wide margin), even for a good defense like New England.
The Patriots don't have any of the three. That they are 17th in offensive DVOA with bad line play and no running game is a testament to how Jones has played through two games and O'Brien finding a way to move the ball. Imagine if they had legit weapons to throw to.
The only hope for the Patriots is that their line gets healthy, gets some continuity, makes the run game as dangerous as Miami's pass game, and that leads to more breathing room and margin of error for Jones via playaction. It can still happen. But it needs to happen quickly.
Here are the positional ratings against the Dolphins:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (3 out of 5)
Mac Jones again played well for the most part, but he needs to avoid the interceptions. It's tough, and I'm sure there's some frustration at the base of it, but where this team is right now, the Patriots can't afford turnovers in plus territory. ... I don't totally blame Jones on the interception. It's one-on-one coverage with your best contested catch receiver. Xavien Howard has been good in the past, but he was not last year and the film against the Chargers wasn't great (5 receptions on 7 targets). Parker has to be tougher on the route — receivers can't allow themselves to be ridden off plays — but Jones needs to put that pass in an area where only Parker could make a catch. ... Six of Jones' 9 plus plays were throws against pressure. ... Jones' deep pass to Bourne at :16 1Q was perfect. Need a guy to make a play. Jones' diagnosis of Miami's all-out blitz on the next play (Douglas' fumble) was perfect. ... Jones' incomplete throw to Parker on 3-9 1:57 2Q was perfect placement, but he needs to look off the safety and throw it with better velocity. Jones stared down Parker. ... Too much air to Bourne 7:46 4Q. ... Yeah, Jones isn't perfect but he's playing well enough. This is the fifth straight game, dating back to last season, that he is playing positive football according to my ratings, and 6 of 7. This week his Completion Percentage Above Expectation was 6th-best in the league.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson was better in this game, but he's still not being decisive enough on some short-yardage plays. That will come with more line continuity. ... One of the biggest sequences of the game came on the first drive of the second half. On 2nd and 1, Stevenson had room to pick it up. On 3rd and 1, the toss for minus 4 yards was poor execution between Calvin Anderson and Pharoah Brown. I think Brown was supposed to block down on a pin/pull concept where Anderson pulls around Brown. Both players pulled, which allowed Jevon Holland to run through for the TFL. ... On a team that is starting terrible on offense, I don't need to see Ezekiel Elliott on the second drive of the game. Let Stevenson get into a rhythm. Elliott, who also allowed a knockdown in pass pro, can get every third series.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
It was shocking that DeVante Parker went from not being healthy against the Eagles to playing all 74 snaps. He did show well after the catch with two broken tackles. Doesn't get much separation down the field and he has to play tougher on the boundary. Howard knows him well and punked him on the INT. Parker left Jones out to dry on that play. ... It was a complete joke that Demario Douglas, who made two plus plays on his two receptions, was benched after an understandable fumble. The only reason why Douglas is on the field is because of Belichick's failed personnel moves. He's a sixth-round receiver out of Liberty playing his second game on Sunday Night Football ... he shouldn't even be out there. It's your fault he is, and you bench him?! Be more out of touch. Young players make mistakes. Let them make them. Maybe Douglas would have anticipated being tackled from behind if he played more than 5 snaps in the preseason. He has to learn on the fly at this point. ... Kendrick Bourne played only 38 of 74 snaps. That's further evidence he doesn't know what he's doing. More infuriating route stuff from him this week. It's obvious they don't trust him. His route 1-10 2:24 3Q was absolutely infuriating and bench worthy. Didn't run up on the cornerback. Didn't give a fake. Just ran down the field looking at the QB. ... I can't wait to see what Hunter Henry and Jones together when they have a running game/get-under-center/playaction game to work off of. Great improve on the TD pass.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
They were awful — not sure I've ever seen Patriots linemen on the game more than in this one (Dolphins slanted a lot more and surprised New England) — starting with Calvin Anderson, Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange. Strange torpedoed a promising opening drive with a stuff, sack and bad screen block on the final three plays. ... I'm giving Strange and Onwenu some rust rope, but they better be on point vs. the Jets. ... Vederian Lowe was surprisingly good in this one. Until the bad sack on the final drive, he was probably their best lineman.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (1.5 out of 5)
Outside of Matthew Judon and Josh Uche (occasionally), this group struggled against the run and to generate any pass rush. ... Got too cute trying to get more speed on the field with Daniel Ekuale (washed on 43-yard run) at nose and moving Davon Godchaux at end. It weakened them at two spots. Godchaux struggled.
Patriots didn't stop the Dolphins, the Dolphins limited themselves with mistakes or this would have been a blowout:
First drive ... Tua fell on third and goal, led to FG.
Second drive .. TD
Third drive ... Tua missed throws on 2nd and 3rd down.
4th drive ... TD.
Second half
Fifth drive ... this was first time the Patriots defense made a play. Doubled Waddle, hit Hill, Judon coverage sack on third down. Nice play.
Sixth drive ... holding penalty led to blocked FG
Seventh drive ... Waddle drop then Hill tripped on third down.
8th drive ... Badly underthrown INT by Tua. He was open.
9th drive ... Mostert TD
10th drive ... Tua fumbled snap, McDaniel said he was going for on 4th down before that, missed FG.
Linebackers (1.5 out of 5)
Tavai gave up the edge on the first touchdown, and Bentley got sucked up on the Mostert touchdown. This was a game where the linebackers looked slow again. Missed two tackles each.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
The Patriots missed three big tackles for 35 yards in this game (PFF had them for eight total misses). ... The good was Christian Gonzalez's INT catch (badly underthrown and Gonzalez's hips were facing wrong to start the play, should have been a touchdown) and another pass coverage, some good tackles from Jabrill Peppers and Myles Bryant, a nice pass breakup from Kyle Dugger. But that's about it. The conservative coverage didn't help them. ... The defense overall was very passive. This was the Buffalo "please don't hurt us" defense on steroids. Patriots playing with three deep safeties wasn't innovative, it was waving the white flag. Easy underneath stuff, figured their front would win vs. Miami OL. Dolphins kind of laughed, said that's cute, and just used motion and their speed to outflank the Patriots. ... So the Patriots have given up trying to dictate anything on defense to the Bills and Dolphins? Thank goodness Aaron Rodgers got hurt. Patriots are admitting we can't cover and you're too fast to TWO divisional teams. ... Bill still playing bend but don't break on steroids. Problem is, Mark Sanchez isn't the best QB in the division anymore. ... Dugger factored heavily into two touchdowns. Not a good start to the season for him. ... Patriots missed a good run support free safety like Devin McCourty.
THREE UP
Matthew Judon: Only guy making plays in the front seven.
Mac Jones: If you give him Hill and Waddle, the Patriots are 2-0. He's off to a really good start. Just needs a little more consistency.
Christian Gonzalez: The INT was kind of a gift (great catch) but his coverage is real. He ran with Hill. Excited to see him keep stacking success.
THREE DOWN
Calvin Anderson: Was just completely worked by Van Ginkel, who played linebacker all camp.
Mike Onwenu/Cole Strange: They were not good in their returns but are entitled to a one-week grading curve.
Kyle Dugger: Made a few plays, but can't be ultimately responsible for two touchdowns.
