As we gear up for the Patriots season opener, I figured this would be a great time to check with my league sources - scouts and front office folks - on what they expect from the Patriots both big picture-wise and how it plays out on Sunday against the Eagles.
Without further adieu, let's go macro first, then micro:
AFC Pro Scout: "For me, it comes back to the same thing I've been talking to you about. Who on their offense makes you stay up at night? It used to be #12, but he also had Gronk, Edelman, and Welker, and that one year with Moss. This one has what, exactly? I'm not afraid of the guy winning 50/50 balls (Parker). They're 50/50 for a reason. JuJu, Bourne, and the tight ends (Henry and Gesicki) are all okay. If Mac becomes #12 lite, then the equation changes, but even still, not enough to change the balance of power in the AFC East."
AFC Assistant Director of Player Personnel: "So I like their roster more than most, but the schedule is unkind. There are very few layups in this league in general, but this is more so. I know those defensive coaches will have to earn their money with all those star quarterbacks they've got to face. I can see them being in the playoff mix until the end of the regular season, maybe even working their way in as the 7th seed. There'd be no shame in that. There'd be a lot of teams/organizations in this league that would be happy to have that on their resume."
AFC Pro Scout #2: "Tell me about the quarterback. Please tell me what you think you're getting from him. If he can be a smart ball distributor and cut way back on the turnovers, then the offense should be okay. Not to beat a dead horse, but why they didn't get Hopkins is beyond me. Or someone that other teams looked at and said, 'We gotta stop that guy.' I've seen a lot of offensive line troubles, too, which means they could be taking on water fast. The defense is good. It'll be the thing that keeps 'em in the hunt."
ON EAGLES GAME
AFC Pro Scout #1: "I like them Sunday. Why? This is a massive year for them. Year 4 without (Tom) Brady (who will be in the building). The roster isn't on par with some of the best in the AFC, or the Eagles for that matter, but I think there are a lot of players - and coaches - with a lot riding on this season and getting it off to a good start. The Eagles didn't do jack squat this summer in terms of practice or preseason play ... when sports science takes over, I guess. I know it worked for them last year, but I'll never be a fan of that approach. Bill will have those guys ready, and I think they'll be a wrinkle or two to slow Hurts. You won't stop him, but sometimes make it messy for him. Mac (Jones) will be all right. It'll be close."
AFC Assistant Director of Player Personnel: "Philly's run game is so diverse. It will challenge the defensive staff and the players in the box to maintain eye discipline and handle their gap responsibility. You give them one crease, especially if it's Hurts, and that's that. New coordinators on both sides of the ball also muck it for the Patriots. I'm sure Bill (Belichick) will find some answers and wrinkles to keep it close, but the other team also knows what they're doing."
AFC Pro Scout #2: "The Eagles will put a lot on Hurts. I think the Pats will also try to make it a Hurts-centric game. Take away the go routes and force him to nickel and dime you underneath. Classic Belichick stuff. Complete 7 or 8 passes in a drive, with none of those throws more than 10-15 yards down the field. I like the Pats to make some plays in games like this. The only problem is that Philly has more talent and will embrace the chance to show out. Close but no cigar."
AFC Personnel Advisor: "I don't think Mac's arm is good enough. The Eagles will bait him into thinking he has something outside the numbers, and Slay or Bradberry will jump it. Sure, the Pats can take check-downs and stuff underneath all day long, but eventually, they'll fall behind the sticks and have to wing one, and that's when the problems happened last year, and I could see them happening again. … They (Eagles) have a stacked roster. The Pats aren't there yet."
AFC Pro Scout #3: "If Mac Jones wants to reintroduce himself to the football world and remind them he should have won rookie of the year (two years ago), Sunday is the time. I believe he'll be ready. I believe Bill O'Brien will have him ready. I'm not sure he can elevate the group around him because I'm not sure that group is elevate-able (ed note: we make up words occasionally. It's football, not English class), but I like the kid's passion. He might get beat up in this game, though. That Eagles pass rush is friggin' scary. But if he gets some protection, I think this is a last-possession game."
I'll be real: that wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. Onto the rest of the notes…
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It has been eight months since Tua Tagovailoa has played in a game.
His teammate, Tyreek Hill, thinks his quarterback is ready for whatever the game throws at him starting Sunday.
"Tua is the same guy each and every day," Hill told reporters in Miami. "He's always happy; he's always grateful for this opportunity. Just by me, looking at him, I can tell he's ready. That's why we had those moments in the preseason, so whenever he's out there in real action for the whole game, it's not like, 'Oh my gosh, here I am. I'm back on the field.' He's definitely excited, man; I can just watch it. The way he's throwing the ball out there on the field each and every day.Completing passes, talking trash while he's doing it. He's showing swag each and every day. He's leveling up each and every day."
After several concussions, the Dolphins QB considered retirement in the offseason, then took up jiu-jitsu to learn how to protect himself when he falls. Will that matter when defenders full of bad intentions have an opportunity to sack or tackle Tua if he were to tuck and run? There are no assurances in this game, but it sounds like the engine that makes that offense run (look at how much they struggled without him) is in a good place. For his sake, I hope he stays there.
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Here is an update on the Bills from last weekend's notes column. Despite dealing with a balky hamstring all summer, Terrel Bernard has been named the starting middle linebacker. The 2nd year pro will attempt to fill the void created by Tremaine Edmonds' departure via free agency (Chicago). Bernard got the nod over three others. I can't say he earned it, but Sean McDermott believes he's the best of that bunch for now.
As for that cornerback competition, Christian Benford, a 6th-round pick a year ago, beat out classmate Kaiir Elam, a first-round selection. Benford played at Villanova and took to the defensive system much quicker than Elam. McDermott promises both will play, but I thought Elam would have popped by now. And obviously, considering draft position, so did the Bills.
One other note: O'Cyrus Torrence will start at right guard. The rookie 2nd round pick was one of my favorite players in this year's draft class, a bowling ball of a human being who did not allow a single sack at the University of Florida last season.
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The Jets and their quarterback continue to talk big, as in Super Bowl big. Aaron Rodgers’ addition has the Big Apple abuzz, and they are embracing being a real Super Bowl contender.
Earlier this week, Rodgers was asked if his resolve has been strengthened by what he’s seen throughout this spring and summer.
“Oh, I don’t think I need the resolve to be strengthened at all,” he said. “I think a part of that is speaking things into existence, the idea of manifestation, and the other part of that is a realistic look at the locker room, knowing that there is anywhere from six to 12 teams every year that can do it and that we are one of those six to 12 teams.”
The naysayers will point out that aside from two 40-year signal callers - Tom Brady (for several seasons) and Brett Favre (for one) - it is usually unwise to bet on an aging QB. Rodgers is coming off his worst season since the tail end of the Mike McCarthy era, and while he loves himself some Nathaniel Hackett, we have no actual data that tells us he’s a good coach. Matt Lafleur ran the show offensively in Green Bay, even with Hackett having the official offensive coordinator title. I’d also point to his brief and miserable stint as the head coach in Denver, but that feels like piling on at this point.
Rodgers did admit that there could be some growing pains early in the season.
“It takes a few weeks to figure out kind of your identity on both sides of the ball, so we are going to be a work in progress, but we got some good tests out the gate, and we got to start fast on Monday (vs. Buffalo).”
Patriots fans hope so. They get the Jets in week three at MetLife Stadium.
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Momma, letting your babies grow up to be edge rushers is okay.
Nick Bosa's holdout ended with a record-setting deal worth 122 million guaranteed over five seasons, with a total dollar value of 170. The average of 34 million a year eclipsed Aaron Donald's previous high of 32 per.
So who's next?
Chris Jones remains at odds with the Chiefs on a new deal. There hasn't been a ton of recent reporting on how far the two sides are apart, but what is known is that Jones is prepared to sit out half the year and only return so he can qualify for a year served (as established by the CBA).
At a charity event earlier this week, Jones was asked if he felt he was letting down his team.
"How have I let them down?" Jones responded to reporters on the scene. "It's just like when you're at your job, and you ask for an extension -- you ask for a raise. You're not letting anyone down. Who are you letting down for asking your boss for a raise? So when you take the personal feelings out of it, you kind of get it. All I'm doing is asking for a raise."
He's 29. I understand the fine line the Chiefs are trying to walk, but it behooves them to get Jones in uniform as soon as possible, even if that means a huge but shorter-term deal (if Jones would be amenable). After all, wouldn't that qualify as a raise?
Meanwhile, Cowboys star linebacker Micah Parsons is eligible for a monster extension after this season. He took note of what Bosa just got.
"Super happy for Nick (Bosa)," he said (per ESPN). "He really showed why he was the best player in the league last year. It gives you something to chase. And not in terms of his contract but in terms of how great he was. ... He knows that I'm coming for him. He even said, 'I won this year, and I know you'll be coming for it next year.'"
For my money, Parsons is the most disruptive defender in the game, and you can see that by how defensive coordinator Dan Quinn employs him. Where's the weak link and send Parsons to take advantage of it. But even when those matchups don't happen, the former Penn State star dominates.
Give him all the money.
NERD NOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
The Patriots allowed 20.4 PPG in 2022 (11th in NFL)
- NE allowed 58.0 red zone TD pct in 2022 (22nd in NFL)
- NE: Top-10 scoring defense in 18 of Belichick’s 23 seasons as HC
- The Patriots have not had a scoring defense rank outside of the top 10 in consecutive seasons since 1989-1996 (Belichick hired in 2000)