NHL Notebook: With Wilson deal, Capitals fail to learn from past power forward paydays by Bruins, others

A player Bruins fans love to hate more than most is staying put in the Eastern Conference.

Tom Wilson and the Washington Capitals agreed to a seven-year contract extension Friday, which will pay Wilson $6.5 million annually and keep him in the nation's capital until his age 37 season (2030-31).

“Feeling extremely honored today as I get to sign an extension with the city that I’ve called home for the last 10 years,” Wilson said via social media. “Being a Cap means so much to me and I can’t wait to continue to compete and leave it all out there with this team. Thanks to the Caps family for the support!”

It's fair to see why the soon-to-be-30-year-old secured a long-term deal that could bring him to the end of his career. The snarly winger has earned his keep as one of the last remaining premier power forwards in the game. 

Wilson is one year removed from a 24-goal, 52-point season in 2021-22, both of which were career highs. An ACL tear limited him to 13 goals and 22 points in 33 games last season. Still, formerly a much-maligned first round pick (2012), Wilson morphed himself into a productive fan favorite with the Caps, winning a Stanley Cup in 2018 and having three 20-goal series to his name. 

“Tom possesses all the intangibles needed to win in this League and we are extremely pleased to sign him to a long-term contract, giving him the opportunity to finish his career in a Capitals’ uniform,” Caps general manager Brian MacLellan said in a statement. “Throughout his career, Tom has improved every facet of his game through his drive and competitiveness. We feel his work ethic and leadership qualities will be a tremendous asset to our organization for years to come.”

The 6-foot-4, 220-pound bruiser was set to become one of the more sought-after free agents of a strong class in 2024, but instead, he's likely to remain a Capital for life. Wilson was the subject of trade rumors earlier in the summer, which his agent, Pat Morris, vehemently repudiated as 'fiction' in an interview with The Athletic. He said extension talks began early in the offseason.

“These are important things to get done a year in advance because when you head into that last year things can fester,” Morris told The Athletic. “(Media) can create an issue. It’s not fun for the player; they deal with pressure all the time but if it can be avoided you avoid it. It’s not good for either side.”

In the end, Washington keeps a beloved player in the organization for the long haul, making him an early candidate to succeed Alex Ovechkin with the 'C' once the Great Eight hangs up his skates. 

Even with all of the intangibles Wilson might bring, the on-ice protection for his teammates and how much he might mean to the organization, it's fair to question the lengthy and significant financial commitment the Capitals are making with a physical power forward with modest production on the balance of his career, approaching the wrong side of 30.

There are plenty of past warning signs to have learned from when locking up a player like Wilson. 

Consider one to be Milan Lucic's last contract, a seven-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers which paid him $6 million annually. Another is David Clarkson's seven-year deal with Toronto in 2013, one that carried a $5.25 million cap hit. There was Andrew Ladd signing for a $5.5 million AAV over seven years with the Islanders and David Backes getting a $6 million AAV over five years with the Bruins, two of Lucic's counterparts in the infamous 2016 free agent class. 

All were snarly power forward with decent enough track records in previous seasons and veteran presences. All were regrettable contracts, to say the least.

The buyer's remorse with Wilson might not be as immediate as it was with Clarkson, who never scored more than 10 goals or 15 points in a season after signing his contract. In four seasons between Toronto and Columbus after the deal, he appeared in only 144 games, putting up 17 goals and 13 assists. Serious back issues forced him out of the league by 2016-17. 

Ladd had come off three straight 20-goal seasons and five in his last six upon signing in New York. He made it four straight with 23 goals in his first run with the Isles, only topping out at 31 points, though. It was downhill from there as he reached just 12 goals and 19 assists in 2017-18 before reaching three goals and 11 points before tearing his ACL 26 games into 2018-19. He continued to bounce between the AHL and NHL before the Islanders shipped him out to Arizona, giving the Coyotes a second-round pick and a conditional third-rounder for their troubles. A knee issue held him out of 2022-23, and it's likely he's played his last game. 

Bruins fans know about Backes, now retired, all too well. The former Blues captain never stuck as a potential top-six power forward to compliment David Krejci, eventually being demoted to the bottom-six or the reserves. After three straight seasons and five of six with 20 or more goals, Backes maxed out at 17 goals and 38 points in his first season in Boston. He was part of a salary dump in the Ondrej Kase deal at the 2020 trade deadline with the B's also attaching a first round pick and prospect Axel Andersson to entice Anaheim. 

Lucic had a solid first season in Edmonton alongside Connor McDavid, posting 23 goals and 50 points. He had at least 20 goals in two of his last three seasons and four of six when he signed with the Oilers. But like the others, Lucic's contract quickly became a point-and-laugh deal for other fanbases. Edmonton traded Lucic to Calgary for James Neal in a swap of veterans struggling to live up to their salaries.

We've seen this movie play out too many times before in the NHL with power forwards who cash in as they reach their thirties. 

Lucic has remained relatively healthy, even if he's slowed down substantially, but Clarkson, Ladd and Backes all quickly saw the toll their physical styles of play had on their bodies as they got deeper into their careers. Wilson's off-and-on injury history should have been quite the red flag.

The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn's model has Wilson at an average of -$3.5 million per year, valuing him at a $4.4 million salary in 2023 but just $700,000 by 2030. He would have ranked Wilson's extension as the fifth-worst contract in the league.

Wilson ranks in the 63rd percentile of projected wins above replacement (WAR), according to JFresh Hockey. He's in the 27th percentile of even-strength offensive WAR and the 46th percentile for even-strength defense. To this point, Wilson hasn't been a play-driver on his own, either. The Caps have been consistently outshot, out-attempted and out-chanced with Wilson on the ice at 5-on-5 throughout his career. 

In 158 games over the last three seasons (still less than playing two full seasons) with Wilson on at 5-on-5, the Capitals have controlled 49.4 percent of shot attempts, 49.6 of shots on goal, 49.1 percent of scoring chances and 46.9 percent of high-danger looks, per Natural Stat Trick. In 2022-23, the Caps were below 50 percent in each of those criteria, especially scoring chances (45.07) and high-danger chances (39.27) with Wilson on. 

Through the last three seasons, Washington had a plus-11 differential with Wilson on at 5-on-5 (minus-8 this season), but they shared just 48.1 percent of expected goals (43.43 this season). 

Sure, Wilson is beloved by both fans and teammates in D.C. If his body holds up, this contract will age better than it projects. The salary cap should continue to increase. Roster flaws be damned, they're going to do whatever they can to keep kicking the can for Ovechkin as he hunts down Gretzky's record. Whatever the case, he'll likely be the steward of the early years of the post-Ovechkin era in Washington.

Don't get me wrong, there are 31 other teams that would kill to have a player like Wilson on their roster. Power forwards like him are a dying breed.

But ultimately, seven years at that dollar amount is a dubious investment, given all the evidence Washington had to look back on. Don Sweeney and the Bruins were fortunate to not be the ones to back up the Brinks truck for Lucic in 2016, but they probably wish they had a do-over with Backes. 

Bruce Cassidy thinks Brad Marchand can succeed Patrice Bergeron as captain

The Bruins need a captain for the second time in three seasons after Patrice Bergeron's retirement two weeks ago. Bergeron donned the 'C' on his sweater after serving as captain-in-waiting as Zdeno Chara locked it down for 14 years.

There are a few current Bruins with cases to make, whether it's Brad Marchand or Charlie McAvoy, among others, but Marchand sure seems to be the early leader in the clubhouse. 

Bruce Cassidy had a front-row seat to Marchand's evolution from the "Little Ball of Hate" into one of the league's premier wingers. Appearing on "The Cam & Strick Podcast" this week, Cassidy said he believes Marchand is the right fit for the gig.

"Not that many guys are the perfect kind of mix of everything, right?" Cassidy said. "I think Bergeron was good at that. He led by example. Still the hardest worker in practice. Off the ice, he made sure that everyone felt welcome, was a good teammate to one another and set some of those rules that Zdeno put in place.

"But Brad will be a great leader in terms of leading by example, will to win, been there, done it."

Even with his experience alongside Bergeron, Marchand will still need to adjust to the captaincy, should he earn the title.

He'll just have to learn how to deal with the younger players that are coming into the league and still haven't found their traction, right?" Cassidy added. "That would for Brad because he's got high expectations for everybody. That's just the way he is. There's nothing wrong with that. How he communicates with those guys would probably be, my guess, his biggest challenge."

Mitchell Miller signs in Slovakian league

It appears Mitchell Miller will have a career in professional hockey, just not in North America. The blue-liner signed with HK Liptovsky Mikuláš of the Extraliga, the top league in Slovakia. 

He did not play at all in 2022-23 after signing with the Bruins, who signed him despite readily available information regarding Miller's past assault conviction for bullying a Black, developmentally disabled classmate, Isaiah Meyer-Crothers. The Coyotes drafted Miller in the fourth round in 2020 before renouncing his rights.

Larry Brooks of the New York Post reported last month that the Bruins and Miller reached a settlement to terminate his contract in February.

Blackhawks and Maple Leafs courted Lucic in free-agency

Turns out, there was quite a market for Lucic in free agency this season.

On the "Spittin' Chiclets" podcast this week, Lucic said the Maple Leafs, among several teams, were looking to add his snarl to their bottom six. New Toronto GM Brad Treliving had Lucic in Calgary. 

“Yeah. I talked to [Treliving] a little bit, obviously because I had Tre in Calgary there,” Lucic said. “So, he expressed some interest, and I was like, ‘Yeah, it would be tough for me to be a Leafer just because of the Boston connection.'"

The Chicago Blackhawks also inquired about Lucic's services in search of a veteran presence and muscle for Connor Bedard. The Hawks eventually settled for Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno in a deal with the Bruins, a better one for Chicago, at that, acquiring a skilled veteran to play alongside Bedard as well as some security. Nevertheless, Lucic entertained joining the Blackhawks more than he did the Leafs, admitting to the allure of playing with the No. 1.

"Not only that, but you get to wear one of the nicest, if not the nicest, jerseys in the league,” the Vancouver native said. “Cool city. Awesome city. For me, I think I have the most family out of anywhere in Chicago. I would’ve been playing in front of family on a night-to-night basis. ... I thought it would have been pretty cool to play with the new kid that obviously shattered a ton of records doing what he did in juniors, the World Juniors and all that stuff. Not only that, but he's also a Vancouver kid as well. 

"It would have been a chance to play with an up-and-coming... potential to be one of the best players out of Vancouver ever. But like I said earlier, getting the opportunity to come back to Boston was something that I couldn't pass up."