The Red Sox are set to begin the second half of their schedule following four days off for the All-Star break on Friday night in Chicago. Prior to the break, Boston won five straight games and now sit two games out of the last wild-card spot. They are also just one game behind the Yankees for fourth place in the AL East.
The Sox have a favorable schedule coming out of the break, they’ll play three with the Cubs (42-47), then they will travel to Oakland and play the lowly Athletics (25-67) for a three-game series, before returning home to Fenway Park to play the underachieving Mets (42-48).
The next couple of weeks are incredibly important for this Red Sox team. Alex Cora’s club has been the poster child of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of baseball all season long. There's been stretches where they play at an elite level and others where they look lost. The inconsistencies must end if the Sox want to have a productive second half.
Before Boston faces the Cubs this weekend, there's looming questions around the team and what they should do and need to do before the trade deadline.
Buy or Sell?
The MLB trade deadline is 19 days away on Aug. 1 and Chaim Bloom needs to figure out what he wants to do with his roster. During Bloom’s tenure, he has not been one to set the market when it comes to player transactions. Bloom has generally lurked in the shadows looking for value when many have argued he should do the complete opposite.
The one thing Boston cannot do is what they did last season: tip-toe the line and trade just a few veterans (Christian Vázquez/Jake Diekman) while keeping other valuable commodities and then lose them to free agency for nothing. The Sox need to pick a side, commit to it and play out the remainder of the season.
“You have to be realistic (about) where you’re at,” Cora said. “Can we do it? Of course. But you have to very honest and very transparent, black and white. This is where we’re at and this is what we want. … Obviously, it’s a topic that’s going to come up the rest of the month. I think at the end, you keep winning series, you keep winning games, and we’ll decide what we do later on.”
The Sox need starting pitching, a reliever and possibly another middle infielder.
Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock all occupy spots on the IL. Houck began throwing on July 11, Sale is ahead of schedule throwing every other day and is eligible to return in August, while there is no timetable set for Whitlock.
If Boston decides to buy at the deadline, the Sox could turn to the Cardinals and check the availability of starters Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Fox-2 in St. Louis on Wednesday he will sell at the deadline. St. Louis is in last place at 38-52, 11.5 games out of first place and 11 out of the final wild-card spot.
"Right now, I can tell you, we're going to trade people, you just don't know if it's going to be household names or guys who are more likely to not be here next year," said Mozeliak.
Flaherty and Montgomery would both be rentals, they will be free agents this winter. They’ll likely be two of the best arms available heading into the deadline.
Flaherty, 27, is intriguing because when healthy, he has been an ace for the Cardinals. The right-hander has made 17 starts this season, posting a 6-5 record with a 4.27 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work. They’ll be many suitors lining up for his services, the Rays, Orioles, Dodgers and Yankees all need additional starting pitching. It’s unlikely given Bloom’s track record that he will outbid another team for Flaherty’s services.
Montgomery feels a little more optimistic and the southpaw might actually make more sense than Flaherty. The lefty is coming off last season where he’s made 32 starts and 30 the year prior, this season he’s made 18 with a 6-7 record, 3.23 ERA, 1.223 WHIP over 103 innings. He did leave his last start with a hamstring injury but it’s not expected to be serious.
The lefty has experience pitching in the AL East after spending six seasons with the Yankees. He has limited playoff time but the Sox need someone who can take the ball every fifth day and Montgomery can do that.
Boston could run out a rotation of Brayan Bello, James Paxton, Kutter Crawford, Montgomery and have a bullpen game until Houck returns. Once Sale and Whitlock presumably come back this season, the Red Sox could slide Whitlock and Houck into the bullpen.
The Red Sox should explore adding another left-hander to the mix. Brennan Bernardino has been an unexpected contributor to the roster but it’s unknown if Joely Rodríguez can stay healthy and be a functioning member of this bullpen. Same can be said for Richard Bleier. The Sox have gotten unexpected results from Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter over the last few weeks, but to rely on unproven young arms may not seem smart for Bloom heading down the stretch.
I could see Bloom making a move similar to when he acquired lefty Austin Davis back in 2021. Kansas City’s left-hander Daniel Lynch is similar to Davis in that respect. Both are lefties, Lynch has been primarily a starter this season making eight starts. He offers a five-pitch mix, four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball and sinker. Lynch primarily uses his fastball, slider and changeup. The southpaw could be used as a swingman, eating innings as a bulk reliever with Josh Winckowski, Nick Pivetta and Whitlock and Houck.
Other potential rentals - Lucas Giolito (White Sox), Michael Lorenzen (Tigers) and old friend Rich Hill (Pirates).
Team control options - Eduardo Rodríguez (Tigers/three years plus an opt-out), Shane Bieber (Guardians/arbitration eligible), Paul Blackburn (Athletics/two years of arb. remaining).
Relief options - Joe Kelly (White Sox), Jordan Hicks (Cardinals), Brad Hand (Rockies) and Brent Suter (Rockies).
The Sox have been linked to Athletics infielder Aledmys Díaz but he comes with an $8 million price tag. He's had a down year, hitting .209 with two homers and 14 RBI. He doesn't exactly move the needle and the club has better internal options.
The Sox could also sell and Paxton, as he is their No.1 trade chip. Bloom would have the pick of the litter when looking to adding additional prospects to the system. The issue with trading Paxton would be the lack of starting pitching the club currently has to offer, Boston would need to acquire a MLB ready arm to replace him.
Given his success this season, Boston would be better suited on extending the lefty versus trading him. Paxton has already be open about liking Boston and potentially staying with the club beyond the season. A deal similar to Corey Kluber with a higher AAV would make sense and it would be one less starter Bloom needs to add this winter.
Justin Turner, Kiké Hernández, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are other options to trade and would bring back young talent to the organization. Of the five players mentioned, I could see Hernández playing for a new club in a few weeks. One team that he could help is the Dodgers, where he could fill the Chris Taylor's super utility role on the roster while out on the IL.
Christian Arroyo isn’t a lock to remain with this club for the remainder of the season either. The often injured infielder is approaching his final year of arbitration and while his stock isn’t exactly high, financially he could be attractive to a mid-market club. If the Sox trade Arroyo, that means Hernández lives to fight another day.
If Boston wants to bring back a player with more control long-term, they could look at moving Pivetta or even Alex Verdugo.
The centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade has enjoyed his best season with the club. Verdugo leads all AL outfielders in doubles (26), ranks fifth in batting average (.284) and has been the AL's best defensive right fielder to date based on Defensive Wins Above Replacement (0.9).
It’s unlikely Verdugo will be dealt, but if the Sox do move him, they could promote WooSox outfielder Wilyer Abreu and see what he could give them for the rest of the season. Abreu is hitting .251 with 11 homers, 34 RBI, three stolen bases and a .836 OPS with Worcester. He can play all three outfield positions, has sneaky speed and offers a cannon of an arm.
If Verdugo is traded, the Sox need to bring back a starting pitcher that could lead the rotation.
What to do with Kiké Hernández?
The Red Sox have to make a decision heading into Friday night’s series opener on whether to activate infielder Pablo Reyes from the IL or to DFA him off the roster.
The room of middle infielders is getting crowded with the return of Yu Chang and now the impending activation of Reyes.
Hernández has made 15 errors this season, 14 at shortstop and one at second base. Entering the second half, he’s hitting .221 with 11 doubles, six homers, 31 RBI, three stolen bases, .602 OPS and 63 wRC+.
His overall body of work in 2023 does not warrant him sticking around on the roster with Chang and Reyes ahead on the depth chart. Hernández can play center field but with Jarren Duran and Duvall, he continues to get squeezed out from regular playing time.
Boston could keep Hernández around a little longer and they trade Duvall instead, but once Trevor Story gets back, they’ll be back to square one. Keeping Hernández on the roster is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. His play hasn’t warranted him the opportunity to hang around and if Boston keeps the veteran on the roster its strictly due to his connection with Cora.
Will John Henry let Bloom add payroll?
The Red Sox can spend whatever they want to try and improve this team. Everyone knows this and Red Sox fans want this ownership group to be more aggressive in spending for top talent.
If Boston prefers to stay under the luxury tax, they’ll have roughly $5-$6 million to play with as they head into the deadline. That is if they add to the roster and not subtract any salaries along the way.
Boston is just north of $227 million spent on a threshold of $233 million, according to Twitter account RedSoxPayroll.
Moving Hernández gives Bloom a little more payroll to spend even if the Sox eat a portion of his $10 million salary this season.
If the Sox want to splurge and add Bieber or Giolito, Henry will need to be comfortable with writing the check and giving up some young controllable assets in the process.
Can Masataka Yoshida, Duran, Paxton and Bello continue to make strides in the second half?
The Sox are red hot, winners of five straight and eight of their last nine games. At 48-43, the Sox are two games back of the third wild-card spot and are breathing down the Yankees' neck.
“We’re playing good baseball,” Cora said. “Offensively, there’s a lot of guys doing a lot of good things now. For a month and a half, we didn’t hit with men in scoring position, but the line was moving. The guys are driving them in and it’s a good feeling, but we got work to do. We’re still last in the American League East.”
Masataka Yoshida has been a bright spot, finishing the first half of the season hitting .316 with an .874 OPS and 10 homers. He struck out in just 10 percent of his plate appearances while walking eight percent of the time.
Yoshida hit a homer in the eighth inning on Sunday helping secure the Sox three-game sweep of the Athletics.
Masataka Yoshida does not fear the Monster.
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 9, 2023
MASATAKA YOSHIDA IS THE MONSTER! pic.twitter.com/IKQhpQemXa
Can Yoshida sustain his offensive pace and continue to pay dividends for the Sox?
“(We) did a good job scouting him throughout the years and they understood he was going to be OK,” Cora said. “I know a lot of people still have question marks, but what he’s doing is what good hitters do. They put the ball in play, they hit hard. He takes his walks, he doesn’t strike out. He hits the ball all over the place against lefties and righties, and I’m glad we took a chance.
“I know (midseason) grades are coming,” Cora said. “He’s an ‘A’. Whoever gives him less, I don’t know what they’re watching.”
All signs point to yes based on his first-half play but he will need to eliminate his every once and while week-long slumps.
Duran has been a massive bright spot for the Sox since his promotion from Triple-A Worcester. The 26-year-old has posted a .320 batting average with 74 hits, 27 doubles, two triples, five homers, 33 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a .886 OPS.
“Coming here and being hot and then going to the west coast and struggling and now he’s doing this, that’s a great sign,” Cora said. “He’s playing with confidence right now. You can tell... We’re very happy for him. I know it was a roller-coaster there for a while there.”
Duran has been a table setter at the top of the lineup and he has changed the entire dynamic of how Cora pencils his guys in 1-through-9 in the batting order. His elite speed, turning singles into doubles and being a menace on the bath paths has arguably been the biggest surprise for the Sox this season. His emergence could allow Boston to move Duvall and add a piece to the bullpen and bench in the process.
“I’m just trying to be that annoyance to the other team and just get on base, and run and try and cause havoc, and just keep pressure on, and hopefully the guys behind me can get a good pitch to hit,” Duran told reporters, per MLB.com.
From a pitching perspective, the Sox will need Paxton and Bello to anchor down the rotation.
Paxton improved to 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA after defeating the A’s on Saturday. He went 3-0 during the month of June earning him the honors of the AL Pitcher of the Month.
"Everything that we’ve seen from him throughout this year has been really impressive,” Bloom said. “He has done exactly what you would ask. A lot of times, those things are hard to do in season but he has been everything we hoped since we finally got him back on the mound here. I think he appreciates and thrives on a lot of the things that make Boston special.”
As he continues to have a bounce-back season for the Red Sox and if he stays in Boston, he will be incredibly important to any run this team may make.
(Getty Images)
Bello has gone from young prospect to the ace of the staff in just one season.
The 24-year-old is maturing before Red Sox’ fans eyes as he dazzles in each and every start. Bello has been going deeper into games, made changes to his pitching repertoire and becoming more efficient overall.
“He gathers information,” said Cora. “He understands, him and (pitching coach Dave Bush and game plan coordinator Jason Varitek), they do a good job in between innings to go over what’s going on. Going into the battle, you have an idea what you want to do. But then the opposition, they react differently - sometimes more aggressive than others, sometimes more patient.
“But little by little, he gathers information and he goes out there and he applies it. He’s not afraid. We tell him, ‘Hey, you’re doing this, you’re doing that....be more aggressive with this pitch,’ and he goes and executes.”
Bello is 6-5 this season, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in 14 starts, seven of which he’s gone six or more innings. He was tremendous in the month of June owning a 3-2 record with a 2.14 ERA, allowing eight runs through 33 2/3 innings pitched while also holding opponents to a .174 batting average.
Both Paxton and Bello are the keys to this Sox rotation, adding a veteran to the mix will help down the stretch.
Will Trevor Story move the needle for the Sox upon his return?
Story will begin rehabbing after the All-Star break, ramping up his throwing and facing live pitching. The 30-year-old expects to return as a shortstop in August and will hopefully end the revolving door at the position.
“It’s coming soon,” Story told MassLive’s Christopher Smith before the All-Star break. “Realistically, I see myself playing in the big leagues in August. To shoot around mid-August would be great. Obviously this is a live thing so you can’t live and die by the timeline. But yeah, I think go on a rehab assignment, get some at-bats, get my timing underneath me and spend as long as I need down there to feel good enough to come back.”
Story underwent surgery back in January on his right ulnar collateral ligament. Prior to arriving at Fenway Park on Monday, Story has been rehabbing over the last four months at the Sox training facility in Fort Myers.
While training in Florida, Story focused on getting stronger but while acclimating himself back to baseball activities. Story hasn’t seen any type of live reps offensively or defensively.
As Story continues to come back from his elbow surgery, he could get into game action in the minor leagues. However, Story’s rehab isn’t as simple as just assigning him to Double-A Portland or Triple-A Worcester.
“That’s where it gets tricky,” Story said. “If I go use the rehab games for DH then those are kind of used up. I can’t really just go down and do that for shortstop. That’s where we can get creative with some things but I think this is a live and living thing. Things could change at any point, whether it’s injuries or whatever. As of now, I’m getting ready to be available for DH and things will kind of play themselves out in the next couple weeks or so.”
Boston has already ruled out Story as a DH-type bat only upon his return. Cora confirmed on WEEI’s “Gresh & Fauria” that Story will be the shortstop but he still needs to go through the process of returning.
“Realistically, I see myself playing in the big leagues in August,” Story said. “To shoot around mid-August would be great. Obviously this is a live thing so you can’t live and die by the timeline. But yeah, I think go on a rehab assignment, get some at-bats, get my timing underneath me and spend as long as I need down there to feel good enough to come back.
“Just get my game legs back under me, just the flow of the game, timing and getting the defensive plays and doing it every day,” Story said. “I think that’s the next step to take.”