NFL Notebook: Mike Giardi - How will the Patriots' defense approach the opening gauntlet?

By Mike Giardi
Special to BostonSportsJournal.com

The captain of the Boston Sports Journal ship, Greg Bedard, is spending some quality time with the family and asked me to pinch hit on the NFL Notes column this week. I like to consider myself a skinnier version of Matt Stairs in his prime (if you don’t get the reference, here you go).

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Let’s start locally.

One thing that struck me about the coverage over the course of OTAs and mandatory mini-camp was the notion that this defense could a be massive problem for the opposition. They are, after all, coming off a season in which they were first in weighted DVOA and retained nearly all their key pieces on that side of the ball.

Of course, the schedule is far more problematic this time around. In fact, it’s considered the hardest by, well, everyone. The out-of-division QBs the Patriots will face include Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. Gulp. They will also face a Sean Payton offense at Denver on Christmas eve and a Brian Daboll/Mike Kafka combo platter in the Giants. That’s on top of the 2x a year tilts versus Josh Allen (he has owned them the last 3 seasons), Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa. We having fun yet?

So how will the law firm of Belichick, Belichick and Mayo approach this gauntlet?

The Pats we used to know defensively would play man, press-man, 2-deep man etc. But times, they are a changin’. In 2019, the Pats' defense was playing some form of man on first or second down almost 40% of the time. But that number has consistently declined to the point where this past year, they were playing man less than 20% of the time on the same downs. Why? In talking with players, the easiest answer is personnel. Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson were best when they were allowed to mirror key receivers from jump. This past season, the Pats didn’t have that guy. Plus, they were small at corner, especially when Jalen Mills when down with injury (not that he is a great man corner). 

But it’s not that simple, and the coaches deserve credit here. They noticed this is a league trend, and a successful one at that. Instead of being fundamentally married to this philosophy, one that has carried Bill Belichick's defenses for years, they adapted. They played far more quarters coverage, but also used that design to make changes late in the snap count and befuddle QBs. Of course, those QBs were the likes of Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (they own him). Which is why the law firm’s approach will be noteworthy as they face what is, on paper, a murderer’s row of signal callers.

Real vs. fake pressure

If you don’t know the name Brandon Thorn, you should, especially if you’re a student of both offensive and defensive line play. Brandon’s been scouting for OL Masterminds (an event held annually in Dallas) since 2018 and his Substack “Trench Warfare” followed in 2020 and is a must-read. During this time, he created a metric called “True Sack Rate,” where he looks at every sack from that week.

“I do this because not all sacks are equal from an individual pass-rusher perspective - some come as a result of being unblocked, some as a result of soundly beating the OL 1v1,” Thorn told me. ”So I grade each one to help show which rushers are winning most with skill rather than fortunate circumstances.

That led to requests to do the same thing with quarterback pressures. Thinking about how long that would take gave me cold sweats, but Thorn did it this offseason.

“I've loved the idea because I often notice in-season how inflated some of the PFF stats I see on my Twitter timeline are; "Player X had 10 pressures this week" when in reality half of those were a result of fortunate circumstances.”

Thus “True Pressure Rate” was born.

It gives us a better idea of what Thorn termed as high-quality pressure rates to lower quality. I, for one, love how well the numbers jibe with what I was able to see this past year covering a number of teams on a national level. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons were awesome getting after the passer and thus, the numbers reflect that (they are #1 and 2 on Thorn’s list). But it’s players like Dexter Lawrence of the Giants and Jonathan Allen of the Commanders appearing high on this list that backed what my eyes saw in person (and on tape) that really highlighted the quality of this metric.

That leads us to the Pats and Matthew Judon. There was a lot of discussion locally that he should have been in contention for defensive player of the year in 2022-23. The 15.5 sacks certainly grab the attention. So where did Judon stand when it comes to the best of the best? He finished 16th overall on Thorn’s list, just behind guys like Montez Sweat (Wash) and Haason Reddick (Philly) and just ahead of Javon Hargrave (Philly now SF) and Charles Omenihu (SF now KC). Observed Thorn:

“The numbers - and film since Baltimore - show that Judon is a well-rounded player who primarily wins with very good power and effort,” he said. “Judon executes what he is asked to do at a very high level, but his production (pressures/sacks) primarily comes on stunts, twists and line games where he is provided open lanes to the QB. This results in a high volume of sacks/pressures in the Patriots scheme, but the majority of those are 'low-quality' as I call them rather than 'high-quality' where he is soundly beating OL 1v1. He is capable of doing that, but he simply isn't asked to very often.”

Judon is entering year 3 of that 4-year deal he signed with the Pats and, even entering his age 31 season, would seem to be a player the Pats should look to extend, not only for his play but for his willingness to embrace a leadership role. With Devin McCourty living that retired life, Judon will have even more weight on his shoulders in that regard.

Quick twirl around the league

- Josh Allen told the “Bussin with the Boys” podcast that the media has made far too much of the Stefon Diggs story. Sorry Josh, but your head coach, Sean McDermott, started the social media fire with his “very concerned” quote at the start of mandatory mini-camp and Allen, while in an unenviable position, did little to quell it on that very day. There’s only one person who can truly put out the fire and that’s Diggs himself, but he has yet to speak publicly and his cryptic Twitter and Instagram posts in and around the event didn’t help matters. Despite beliefs locally that the Bills window is closing/has closed, they still have the best roster in the AFC East and one of the top 3 in the AFC period. But this kind of simmering nonsense could test the Bills' mettle. 

- The Pats won’t see Lamar Jackson and the Ravens this year, at least during the regular season, but the buzz about offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense unleashing Jackson is eye-opening. Former Ravens tackle Orlando Brown Jr. said outright that Jackson was held back by former OC Greg Roman’s system, touting the QB’s “incredible feel” for the passing game. The numbers actually back that up, with Jackson being far better from the pocket than he’s been given credit for outside of Baltimore. With the resources the organization has now given Jackson (signing OBJ, drafting Zay Flowers in round 1, adding Nelson Agholor…I kid), we might see another MVP-type season from the 26-year-old.

- Corey Dillon spouted off about his failure to be inducted into the Bengals Ring of Honor and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His numbers present a compelling case, and his 2004 season with the Patriots was epic: 1635 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns (12 rushing). It was his best season as a pro. But here’s where Dillon’s complaints fall on deaf ears. Just as he did in Cincinnati with his famous “I’d rather flip burgers” line, he did the same in Foxborough, quickly alienating himself after that Super Bowl-winning season.  He was a malcontent who cared about his numbers more than anything. And if you read the interview in The Athletic, well, it doesn’t appear anything has changed.