We touched on some of this in our most recent podcast, but I wanted to expand my thoughts and the lists discussing the underrated and overrated aspects of the 2023 Patriots heading into camp.
If the Patriots are to surprise this year, the underrated factors are going to have to hit big.
If the Patriots fall short again, it will be because the overrated factors by the team/fans were exposed, especially against the better teams.
Five underrated strengths for the 2023 Patriots
5. Ability to match up with speed on defense
This was a tweener factor because it could actually be on both lists. Early last season we saw some signs where it looked like the Patriots were covering well in the back, but injuries, a lack of depth and height did in the Patriots' secondary against the better quarterbacks and offenses.
But the Patriots seem to have really nice pieces to match up this season, even better than that year:
Christian Gonzalez
Jack Jones (if no discipline)
Jonathan Jones
Marcus Jones
All those cornerbacks have speed and some potentially special aspects of their games that allow the Patriots to match up well in the secondary against receivers.
At safety, Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers and Jalen Mills can match up with tight ends/receivers.
Marte Mapu and Peppers should do well against running backs out of the backfield.
But the rookies are going to have to come through big-time. In fact, a lot of very young players are going to have to play at a high level week after week and for a full season for this to come to fruition. That didn't happen last year. It could this year.
4. Interior offensive line
While both tackle spots are a burgeoning disaster, the interior line is not getting enough love.
Cole Strange is currently the weak link, but should be better in his second season and with a real line coach to help him.
David Andrews and Mike Onwenu are excellent at the other two spots. Rookie Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi have shown early potential to improve the depth.
If Strange takes a step, this is a very good unit again.
3. The two tight ends
Hunter Henry was a good and effective player his first season in New England, despite having to deal with a rookie QB going through rookie inconsistencies. That connection should have taken a big step in Year 2, but we know what happened. Bill O'Brien knows how to use tight ends, especially two of them with differing skills.
Mike Gesicki is all finesse and makes Travis Kelce look like Mike Ditka, but he should at least have a place improving the league's worst red zone offense. Play Henry, Gesicki, Juju Smith-Schuster and a receiving back off each other, and the Patriots have to be better at moving the chains, keeping the opposing offense off the field, and putting up points.
2. Mac Jones
The recency bias here has gotten out of control. There's even a popular theory that Jones continued his acting out and frustration until the end of the season. That is flat-out wrong. Yes, Jones had a rough stretch against the Bills, Cardinals and Raiders where he could have been benched (which should have told you something about how Bill Belichick viewed Bailey Zappe off the Bears game). But he obviously made a course correction in the final three games where he had much better control and leadership.
Jones had a good rookie season, despite being tightly stage managed by Josh McDaniels — which was needed and the right course of action for Jones' career. He was ready to take the next step and we all know what happened.
With O'Brien, control of the offense at the line and mature weapons (maybe not the greatest collection of talent, but they should be effective), Jones should take a step forward and play well. He should be just outside the top 10 when it comes to NFL QBs — if the line holds up. Jones is a good player. Last season was not his fault. It should be tossed out completely. Remember how Jones was viewed after his rookie season. Expect that guy, with more experience.
1. Christian Barmore
As it stands right now, the Patriots have very few defenders that can win his one-on-one matchup and dominate against the better offenses. Matthew Judon is one, but he does get a lot of his pressure from the Patriots' games up front, which evaporates against smart offensive coordinators who prepare their teams. Josh Uche gets most of his pressure because he plays in great down/distance/score situations as mostly a designated pass rusher.
Barmore is a different guy. He can win at the point of attack against anyone at any time — if he stays on the field with consistency. He had a tough time with injuries last year and got off to a tough start, but he closed the season very well.
If Barmore can fulfill his promise, he's the type of talent that must be double-teamed in most situations, which will free up others to make plays and elevate the defense to another needed level.
Five overrated aspects of the 2023 Patriots
5. The tackle situation (by the team)
This is well-worn territory but it's a potential fatal flaw for this offense and team. I can't believe the Patriots have left themselves so short-handed with real left tackle options if Trent Brown does not pan out. They have enough options to be average at right tackle, but left tackle could kill this team.
4. Team discipline
The post-Brady Patriots have had a ton of issues with penalties, crucial turnovers, blocked kicks, return touchdowns and just boneheaded decisions. There is a lot of hope that O'Brien — himself a demanding disciplinarian — being in charge of the offense will free up Belichick to dial in on defense and special teams and clean up those units.
But it's not like the Patriots were a bastion of discipline when McDaniels was here after Brady, freeing up Belichick. Does the head coach still demand perfection from his team? Does he harp on that stuff as he did earlier in his Patriots career? Are these versions of the Patriots as smart and situationally sound as their predecessors? It's a legit question.
3. Kyle Dugger
I don't mean to harp on the guy because he's a good player that has the potential to be great at any moment, but this is mostly aimed at the fans who continue to term Dugger as some sort of elite playmaker and a young stud. He's not young (27) and he is not elite at this point (PFF agrees, ranking Dugger 21st among all safeties and ninth in the AFC; Miami's Jevon Holland ranked 10th and 23 years old is what the reality of what Patriots think Dugger is).
If Dugger fulfills his potential this season and is more consistent, the sky is indeed the limit for this Patriots defense. But it's now or never for him heading into a contract year.
2. Receiver and third-down back (by the team)
That the team hasn't been more proactive in adding legit outside weapons either via the draft, free agency or trade — if they wanted DeAndre Hopkins they could make him a substantial offer right now and end it — and at third-down back at the very least leaves the offense with a very narrow path to success. Everything, from the blocking to playcalls to Jones' judgment, has to be perfect for this team to get back into the top 10 of offenses. Tyquan Thornton has some big play potential if he can stay on the field. Marcus Jones is probably the best individual playmaker on the team but plays defense.
Third-down back used to be a fail-safe for this team and Brady, but it's been treated like an afterthought in recent years. Ty Montgomery has potential, but he's 30 and has durability issues. Pierre Strong could be the next guy, but he's young and has much to prove.
The Patriots have to get a lot more from both positions this season to be a real offense. A lot has to go right.
1. Defensive potential for this season
The Patriots are a popular defense among the analytics set due to their stats last season, but they need to get out of the numbers and watch how they played against decent offenses. I mean, I have no idea how anyone can trumpet the Patriots' defense when they were the only team to make Justin Fields and the Bears' offense look like the greatest show on turf — on the Patriots' own home field. That offense was a complete joke the rest of the season.
Do the Patriots have a ton of potential on defense? Yes. Do they have some nice young talent looking to take the next step? Yes. We could say the say thing about every season, starting in 2019. But until the Patriots, Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo actually prove themselves against the best offenses for an entire game (everyone talks about the second half against the Bengals ... what about the first half?) and play their best ball at the end of the season instead of falling off, it's hard to be optimistic. It's there, but they need to prove it.
(Tom Herde/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
The Patriots are introduced as a team before games, not individually. Here during practice, from left to right: Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones, Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Ted Johnson run together.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson wasn't thrilled that Bill Belichick seemed to knock the 2001 Patriots in comments to the 33rd Team.
"It amazes me that he would devalue or discredit the 2001 Super Bowl team," Johnson said on 98.5. "I know we were 14-point underdogs, but it’s weird. I would think he would be more proud of that Super Bowl than any of them. I take issue with these comments."
Belichick's quote: “The team was nowhere near the team that we left in ’96. It had declined quite a bit. There were still a few pillars here that we could build with. And by 2003—even though we won in 2001—we knew this was a pretty good football team in all three phases of the game."
2. I think Belichick's comments were fair. I think he was just talking about getting the entire roster more into the program. They turned over the roster quite a bit and finally had things the way they wanted by 2003. I don't think he was trying to discredit the 2001 team.
3. RIP former Patriots QB Ryan Mallett. He was a man with immense talent who never quite put it together on the field, but he was a man with a big heart. He seemed to be following through on that with his dedication to young athletes as a high school coach.
4. In the latest roster ranking to come out, ESPN ranked the Patriots 20th - which I think is fair and they have some upside.
Other AFC East rankings: Bills 3rd, Dolphins 4th, Jets 10th.
I think the Bills and Dolphins are overrated. Jets are about right. I do, however, think the other three teams have a chance to regress. The Patriots only have upside.
5. Derek Carr's comments to the Fresno Bee about the end of his Raiders career were complete crap and indicative of the entitlement he felt.
“I was, for lack of a better term, I was very upset; I was mad,” Carr said. “You spend nine years in a place. You have all the records and you can play at a high level and for something to get in the way, whether it was whatever reason, money related or whatever, injury-related, I would have said I don’t even want the money, just to play two more times in front of our fans. I didn’t get that opportunity. So it definitely lit a fire inside me to keep going.”
How about play better? He got benched after a five-game stretch when he threw nine interceptions, completed less than 55 percent of his passes and couldn't make winning plays with the playoffs on the line. Anyone would get benched in that scenario. And exactly what had he accomplished to think he deserved to stay on the field? The Raiders needed to check out their options with Jarrett Stidham.
