Free agency begins today, with teams free to outwardly negotiate with players (as if they haven't been for a while now) and come to agreements.
The Celtics have some business to tend to, though aside from deciding which of their own plants to water, I don’t think there will be a lot of outside business conducted by them in the immediate moments of free agency.
Here are a few musings ahead of the opening of new business.
CREATIVITY WITH JAYLEN BROWN’S CONTRACT
Believe it or not, there is actually a possibility to get Brown to play ball with his contract and not piss him off. This is a uniquely positive side effect of the new CBA.
By making an All-NBA team, Brown is eligible for a five-year contract starting at 35% of next season’s salary cap. From there, he gets 8% raises.
So his first year’s salary would be $47.6 million. Then he’d get an 8% raise up to $51,408,000. Then he’d get another 8% raise up to $55,216,000.
So in three years, he’d make $154,224,000. His fourth-year salary would be $59,633,280.
If he were to make 32.5% of the cap at 8% raises, his first-year salary would be $44.2 million, and the 3-year total would be $143,224,000. That's an $11 million difference.
But the new CBA, with cap smoothing from the new TV deal factored in, will see the salary cap increasing at a 10% clip, outpacing NBA raises for the first time in a long time.
So the $136 million salary cap would grow to $181,016,000 in what would be Brown’s fourth year of a max extension.
If Boston offered a three-year deal at 32.5% and gave Brown a chance at a new max deal in four seasons, the starting salary would be $63,366,600, a nearly four million bump. A new two-year deal would make up nearly all of what Brown gave up in the initial contract.
Obviously, they can play with the percentages to make it exactly equal, but the 10% cap increases for the foreseeable future make a haircut in the current deal, possibly, palatable for Brown.
Any savings Boston can get up front right now can help keep them under that second apron. The pitch to Brown would be the ability to keep Grant Williams this season and have one more true “go for it” season. A championship on the resume adds to the endorsement opportunities and, should he want to go elsewhere, increases his cachet around the league.
Basically, because of the uniqueness of the salary cap allows Brown to help out by taking less to start but possibly not even give up any money over five years.
If I was Brad Stevens, I’d put two contracts in front of Brown: The five-year super-max, and a three-year almost super-max. I’d tell him “we want you here all five years, so if you just want to take the money, take the money, we’ll be happy. But there's a way you can help us out in the short term and end up with the same money.”
The opportunity is there. If Brown is willing to bet on himself, then maybe he’ll buy into the plan.
DON’T EXPECT MUCH RIGHT AWAY
As I said, don’t expect the Celtics to do much in the opening moments of free agency. They only have their taxpayer mid-level to spend, and using that hard caps them at the second apron.
If you see them use it, then Grant Williams is likely gone. Unless the Celtics are able to flip Malcolm Brogdon for a cheaper point guard and the Celtics fill the rest of their roster with minimum deals, I don’t see a comfortable way for them to use the taxpayer MLE and keep Grant.
So I expect veteran minimums and potential trades to be the way the summer goes. I don’t see Stevens torpedoing his flexibility for a $5 million player.
WHO WILL ACTUALLY CHANGE TEAMS?
Will Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez actually leave the Bucks? I doubt it, but the Bucks are in a rough spot with just six players under contract and a $115 million payroll. Something is going to have to give in Milwaukee, but it probably won’t be the core.
Will Draymond Green really leave Golden State? Also doubt it, but this entire CBA might as well have had a cover with the league’s collective middle fingers over a Warriors logo. They're probably all in for one more season before serious decisions have to be made.
That leaves guys like Kyle Kuzma and Bruce Brown as free agents who might bolt. It feels like this will be a quieter free agency market as far as big names being signed, but a louder trade market as James Harden headlines player swaps.
It will be worth watching for who gets squeezed out and who might be forced to play a season on a cheap deal.
PAT BEVERLEY AN OPTION?
According to Yahoo’s Jake Fischer, the Celtics are interested in Beverley.
I, personally, am not a fan, but maybe the Celtics just need a lunatic in their locker room after dealing Marcus Smart.
Beverley is 35, though, and his effectiveness is really fading. Maybe he can regain some of the shooting touch that made him an average shooter in recent years, but I don’t know that he’s going to be a viable option to play a big role in Boston. And I don’t think he’ll be happy to sit on the bench and wave a towel, so for those reasons, I’m out.