Should the Bruins pursue Oliver Ekman-Larsson in free agency?

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Bruins and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are linked with to another once again.

The Vancouver Canucks bought out the remaining four years of Ekman-Larsson's eight-year, $66 million ($8.2 million AAV) just two years after sending a 2021 first-round pick (Dylan Guenther), a 2022 second (Hunter Haight) and a 2023 third (No. 203, overall) in addition to cap dumps in Loui Eriksson ($6 million), Jay Beagle ($3 million) and Antoine Rousell ($3 million) to Arizona for the Swede's and Connor Garland's services.

It's a colossal buyout with the Canucks handing Ekman-Larsson over $19 million over the next eight years to not play for Vancouver. It will eat up some serious chunks of cap space for the Canucks at various points throughout the term of the buyout, incurring upwards of a $2 million cap hit in several seasons and more than $4 million from 2025-2027. Ouch.

Since the Coyotes, retained salary in the original deal, they'll also be on the hook for a buyout penalty as minimal as it may seem compared to Vancouver's.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old will hit unrestricted free agency on July 1.

In the latest "32 Thoughts" podcast, Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek spitballed that the Bruins might have interest in pursuing OEL, and it may run both ways. 

Marek: "We've talked about various teams that have made plays for Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the past, the Boston Bruins have been on that list and were on that list previous."

Friedman: "And he likes them."

Marek: "That's one of the teams I've wondered about right out of the gate here. Listen, it's not exactly a secret that the Bruins are going to have to do some things here. If you can get an Ekman-Larsson on the cheap, maybe that affords you the luxury of being able to do something that you otherwise had some misgivings about. So I do wonder about the Boston Bruins with Ekman-Larsson, whether that can finally come to some fruition. Because ... how many years did we wonder about Oliver Ekman-Larsson and the Boston Bruins? It's been a number of them."

As Marek alluded to, this isn't the first time the Bruins have done this song and dance with OEL. It felt as if for several seasons there was some constant speculation swirling between the two sides – akin to fellow former future Bruin Tyler Toffoli – as recently as the 2021 trade, when Vancouver and Boston were OEL's preferred destinations.

Others, like Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli, have speculated about the B's being a landing spot this time around, too. 

So does it make sense for the Bruins to go after the veteran blue-liner?

Why it does

Ekman-Larson will be cheap. Just how cheap remains to be seen.

He'll be getting plenty of cash from the Canucks to stay away from them, so a one-year "prove it" contract should not come in at an exorbitant cost. It seems unlikely many, if any, teams would be willing to commit a multi-year deal to the left-shot. 

A one-year deal at a low number would be just what the Bruins need, considering their cap issues. Mike Reilly seems destined for a similar fate via the buyout, while Matt Grzelcyk and/or Derek Forbort could become cap casualties via trade. It's highly unlikely Boston re-signs Dmitry Orlov. That leaves the Bruins with Hampus Lindholm and Jakob Zboril as their only sure-thing returners on the left side of the defense, plus either Grzelcyk or Forbort. It's unreasonable to expect Mason Lohrei to instantly make the leap to the NHL. There could very much be a spot to fill on the left side. 

OEL has undoubtedly seen a drop-off over the last several seasons, save for a bump in his first year with the Canucks in 2021-22 (Vancouver had 54.5 percent of goals and 55.8 of high-danger goals with him on 5-on-5), and this past season was an unmitigated disaster in Vancouver from top to bottom throughout the organization. 

With as weak as the Canucks were to begin with on the blue line upon acquiring OEL in 2021, it wasn't exactly the best fit for the reclamation project of a puck-moving defenseman whose transition play had slipped along with a defensive nosedive, considering he was already coming out of another losing operation in the desert. 

That's where Jim Montgomery's system comes in. As we saw in the regular season, Montgomery's system is well-structured and sound, while also encouraging defensemen to play with pace and contribute inside the offensive blue line. The fit is there, stylistically speaking, with Ekman-Larsson. 

We saw the impact it had on Hampus Lindholm, a fellow rangy left-handed Sweede, in his first full season in the Spoked-B, unlocking him from the chains he had toiled under in Anaheim. Lindholm put himself into the Norris Trophy conversation as one of the league's best do-it-all defensemen this season. Under Montgomery, Dmitry Orlov found a new level, too. 

That's not to say Ekman-Larsson will become the next home run bounceback like Lindholm. The former's best days are behind him, but a third-pairing role (or maybe even second, depending on the rest of the D core) with a chance to quarterback a power play unit in a system like Boston's on a team that should still be competitive could be a strong bet to rehabilitate his play. It would set him up nicely to cash in next summer when the cap increases. 

Don Sweeney is going to need to scour the bargain bin. With the Bruins strapped for cash and in need of creative solutions, taking a flyer on Ekman-Larsson in a situation that could resuscitate his career could be worth a look. Couldn't you just see him popping on a cheap deal in Tampa for a year before a nice pay bump in 2024? 

Why it doesn't

The flip side of it is the data staring us in the face, saying Ekman-Larsson is no longer anything more than a replaceable defenseman. 

His play defensive play had begun to tumble off a cliff in his final few years with the Coyotes, and it was only exacerbated in Vancouver. 

For an offensively-inclined, puck-moving defenseman, OEL hasn't topped 30 points in four seasons, while his goal totals have plummeted, even if his two years as a 20-goal scorer weren't sustainable. His possession numbers have plummeted with opponents holding well over a 50 percent majority of shot attempts, shots, scoring chances and high-danger looks with Ekman-Larsson on the ice at 5-on-5 for four straight seasons. In his two years with the Canucks, Vancouver got just 46.7 percent of goals, 48.3 percent of scoring chances and 47.9 of expected goals with him on the ice at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick. 

Even with the spike in 2021-22, his best days are certainly behind him – as mentioned above – and they've been drifting further and further away for most of the last four seasons.

He'd likely need to be sheltered defensively, ranking in the 24th percentile of even-strength defense this past season, per the first graphic from JFresh Hockey. He contributed minimally on the penalty kill, playing by far the second-lowest shorthanded time of his career this season (55:46), a steep decline from his first year with the Canucks (159:13). 

With all the talk of what a championship defense group should look like after Vegas' run this season, does Ekman-Larsson necessarily fit that bill? Sure, he's got the frame (6-foot-2, 200 pounds) and the mobility, but can he use his size to his advantage and hold up in the playoffs? He's never been a bruiser, so don't expect that to change. He's only had 25 postseason contests across two appearances, which were eight years apart with the first 16 coming in a 2012 march to the conference finals in his second NHL season before nine games in the 2020 bubble. 

The contract would have to be seriously low value to justify taking a swing on OEL. If he doesn't want a one-year, "get right" contract or is more interested in who could come in with the most dollars, then count the Bruins out.